Dartmouth College '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.87 (fleet 3.95) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 32–38 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 2–17 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 26–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (69 matches) the record is 32–37 against 27.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.8). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.87 | 1.61 | 2–16 | 5.2 | −1.25 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2023-03-05 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.00 | 2.65 | 4–5 | 4.6 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.98 | 4.16 | 9–5 | 5.6 | +1.18 | 2.9 | 4% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 3.90 | 11–9 | 6.6 | +1.08 | 3.5 | 2% |
| 2022-03-05 | Sharpe Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 3.13 | 6–2 | 5.3 | +0.58 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 4.32 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.6 | 3.23 |
| The 33rd Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.0 | 4.75 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Open Dinghy Championship/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.8 | 3.65 |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| Central 4 UNH | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.0 | 4.03 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.8 | 2.50 |
| The Moody | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.6 | 3.39 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.8 | 3.34 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.8 | 4.18 |
| 2023 Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 3.40 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.4 | 3.11 |
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.2 | 4.24 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.7 | 4.07 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 4.53 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.6 | 4.16 |
| 31st Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.8 | 3.79 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharpe Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Boston University Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 6.6 | 3.68 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | 3.06 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 4.26 |
| The Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.8 | 2.69 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.4 | 3.93 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.6 | 3.21 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.9 | 4.08 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 3.14 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Oliver Hurwitz |  The Hotchkiss School |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
