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Boston University Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 18–2
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 13–7
3 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 11–9
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 8–12
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 6–14
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,267 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 60 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.558 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.03 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 39% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears		18.16
school +0.20		Hunter Zonnenberg / Izzy Cox 2.92
Connor Macken / Jacqueline Rice 2.44
Leyton Borcherding / Menasha Leport 2.55		80%18–2 (90%)+2.0
2Boston College
Eagles		27.57
school +0.31		Matt Budington / Nick Budington
Chip Kreuzkamp / Grace Beneke 1.81
John (Jack) Plavan / Sara Schumann 2.47		67%13–7 (65%)−0.4
3Dartmouth College
Big Green		56.19
school +0.14		Nicholas Hurley / Maya Nguyen
Oliver Hurwitz / Madeleine Sharp 2.82
Griffin Lapham / Alexandra Pierce		33%11–9 (55%)+4.4
4Roger Williams University
Hawks		37.19
school +0.38		Luke Hosek / Izaiah Farr 2.05
William Bailey / Ian Coen 2.25
Chase Reynolds / Ruby Hope 2.46		58%8–12 (40%)−3.6
5Boston University
Terriers		46.49
home +0.32		William Wiegand / Lucy Paskoff
Tiare Sierra / Matthew Hamelsky 2.45
Nathan Selian / Carolyn Kravets 2.03		40%6–14 (30%)−2.1
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		65.70
school −0.11		Matthew Elliott / Elissa Ito 2.26
Max Katz-Christy / Sarah Aaronson 1.88
Charles Lindsay / Yitian Zhu 1.58		22%4–16 (20%)−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Dartmouth College6.197.2711–96.6+1.083.52%
1Brown University8.169.0118–216.0+0.841.120%
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology5.705.594–164.3−0.110.067%
2Boston College7.577.4513–713.4−0.120.069%
5Boston University6.495.956–148.1−0.540.890%
4Roger Williams University7.196.328–1211.6−0.872.298%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Nicholas HurleyDartmouth College1.782.8611–96.6+1.083.52%
Griffin LaphamDartmouth College0.922.0011–96.6+1.083.52%
Max Katz-ChristyMassachusetts Institute of Technology1.881.774–164.3−0.110.067%
Chip KreuzkampBoston College1.811.7013–713.4−0.120.069%
John (Jack) PlavanBoston College2.472.3513–713.4−0.120.069%
William WiegandBoston University1.430.896–148.1−0.540.890%
Tiare SierraBoston University2.451.916–148.1−0.540.890%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Dartmouth CollegeBoston University37%upset
12Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology92%
13Boston CollegeRoger Williams University59%
14Brown UniversityBoston University86%
15Dartmouth CollegeRoger Williams University21%upset
16Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology87%
17Brown UniversityRoger Williams University73%
18Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology67%
19Boston CollegeDartmouth College83%
110Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRoger Williams University18%upset
111Brown UniversityDartmouth College89%
112Boston CollegeBoston University76%
113Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology60%
114Boston UniversityRoger Williams University32%upset
115Brown UniversityBoston College64%
216Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDartmouth College39%upset
217Roger Williams UniversityBoston University68%
218Brown UniversityBoston College64%
219Dartmouth CollegeBoston University42%upset
220Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology87%
221Brown UniversityRoger Williams University73%
222Boston CollegeBoston University75%
223Dartmouth CollegeRoger Williams University27%upset
224Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology92%
225Boston CollegeRoger Williams University59%
226Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology69%
227Brown UniversityDartmouth College88%
228Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyRoger Williams University18%upset
229Boston CollegeDartmouth College79%
230Brown UniversityBoston University84%
331Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology82%
332Dartmouth CollegeBoston College21%upset
333Brown UniversityBoston University84%
334Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology64%
335Brown UniversityRoger Williams University73%
336Boston CollegeBoston University74%
337Dartmouth CollegeBrown University13%upset
338Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology87%
339Roger Williams UniversityBoston University66%
340Boston CollegeBrown University36%upset
341Roger Williams UniversityDartmouth College71%
342Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology70%
343Roger Williams UniversityBoston College40%upset
344Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology92%
345Dartmouth CollegeBoston University44%upset
446Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology81%
447Dartmouth CollegeBoston College22%upset
448Brown UniversityBoston University83%
449Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology65%
450Brown UniversityRoger Williams University73%
451Boston CollegeBoston University73%
452Brown UniversityDartmouth College86%
453Boston CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology86%
454Boston UniversityRoger Williams University35%upset
455Brown UniversityBoston College64%
456Roger Williams UniversityDartmouth College69%
457Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston University30%upset
458Roger Williams UniversityBoston College40%upset
459Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology92%
460Boston UniversityDartmouth College55%

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsEaglesGreenHawksTerriersEngineers
Brown University Bears5–0✕WWWWW
Boston College Eagles4–1L✕WWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green3–2LL✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks0–5LLL✕LL
Boston University Terriers2–3LLLW✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–4LLLWL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsEaglesGreenHawksTerriersEngineers
Brown University Bears5–0✕WWWWW
Boston College Eagles4–1L✕WWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green2–3LL✕WWL
Roger Williams University Hawks1–4LLL✕WL
Boston University Terriers1–4LLLL✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–3LLWWL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BearsEaglesGreenHawksTerriersEngineers
Brown University Bears3–2✕LLWWW
Boston College Eagles3–2W✕LLWW
Dartmouth College Big Green4–1WW✕LWW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–1LWW✕WW
Boston University Terriers1–4LLLL✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers0–5LLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.BearsEaglesGreenHawksTerriersEngineers
Brown University Bears5–0✕WWWWW
Boston College Eagles2–3L✕LLWW
Dartmouth College Big Green2–3LW✕LLW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–2LWW✕LW
Boston University Terriers2–3LLWW✕L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–4LLLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
2 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
3 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
4 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
5 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
6 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
7 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
8 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
9 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 4-5-6
10 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
11 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
12 Boston College Eagles 1-4-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-3-6
13 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
14 Boston University Terriers 1-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-5-6
15 Brown University Bears 3-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 DSQ
16 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
17 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
18 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
19 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
20 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
21 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
22 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
23 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-6
24 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
25 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
26 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
27 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-5-6
28 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-6
29 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-6
30 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
31 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-5-6
32 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
33 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
34 Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-6
35 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-4-6
36 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
37 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-3-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-4-6
38 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
39 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 1-5-6
40 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
41 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
42 Boston University Terriers 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5
43 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-6 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-5
44 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
45 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
46 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
47 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Boston College Eagles 3-5-6
48 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
49 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
50 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
51 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
52 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
53 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
54 Boston University Terriers 1-3-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-4-5
55 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
56 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
57 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-6 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-5
58 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
59 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
60 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-5-6

Conditions — 03/26/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 995.9 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From SW (218°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine5.6 hrs Humidity65% Pressure995.9 hPa Rain0.09 in

What this breeze does at Boston University — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Boston University in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled fleet-race days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →