Brown University '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 39.55 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 16 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.67 (fleet 3.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 58–57 (50%) as crew 10–10 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 12–19 | 2–1 |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 5 | 30–14 | 3–3 |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 4–11 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | — | 5–6 |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (134 matches) the record is 68–66 against 71.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-25 | Jan Friis Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 2.73 | 5–11 | 5.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2023-03-18 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | crew | 3.45 | 4.36 | 2–1 | 1.4 | +0.91 | 0.4 | 43% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.93 | 3.12 | 7–8 | 6.6 | +0.19 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2022-10-22 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 3.36 | 11–4 | 9.5 | +0.55 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 2022-04-02 | The 39th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.95 | 1.52 | 5–10 | 9.2 | −1.43 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 3.76 | 18–2 | 16.0 | +0.84 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2022-03-19 | 2022 Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 3.49 | 4.04 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.55 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | skipper | 3.09 | 2.90 | 7–2 | 7.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2021-05-14 | Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | skipper | 2.35 | 2.14 | 2–7 | 2.3 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2021-04-24 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.34 | 2.44 | 2–4 | 1.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2020-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | crew | 3.62 | 2.83 | 5–6 | 6.5 | −0.79 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2019-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.36 | 0.81 | 1–9 | 3.2 | −1.54 | 2.1 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Crew | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| College Sailing Open Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.3 | 3.61 |
| Jan Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.9 | 3.69 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| NEISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.7 | 3.76 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.1 | 3.30 |
| 2022 Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.2 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Throphy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.8 | 3.24 |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Boston University Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 90% | — |
| The 39th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| 2022 NEISA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| 2022 Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.3 | 3.94 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 13 | 3.9 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.7 | 4.02 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.7 | 3.95 |
| Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invite 2 at Brown | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| CGA Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.9 | 2.85 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Crew | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.7 | 3.06 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 6.0 | — |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 2.58 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.6 | 2.70 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 2.18 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Hunter Zonnenberg |  Milton Academy |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
