St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/07/2020
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–3
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	14–3
3	Brown University	Bears	10–7
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	10–7
5	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	5–9
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	4–10
7	Jacksonville University	Fins	3–6
8	George Washington University	Colonials	3–6
9	Fordham University	Rams	2–7
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,785 team race matches sailed before 2020-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 66 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.459 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.17 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 63% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.44 school +0.54	Jacob Rosenberg / Sammy Pickell 3.51 Jack Parkin / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.91 13–3 Wiley Rogers / Camille White 3.47 13–3 Jack Parkin / Camille White 4.00 1–0 Wiley Rogers / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.40 1–0	81%	14–3 (82%)	+0.3
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2	11.14 school +0.27	Parker Loftus / Colin Macgillivray 3.45 12–3 Connor Bayless / Sean Linden 3.73 12–3 Jc Hermus / Jonah Hatt 3.65 12–3 Parker Loftus / Sally Johnson 3.53 2–0 Connor Bayless / Kimmie Leonard 3.68 2–0 Jc Hermus / Emma Remis 3.73 2–0	75%	14–3 (82%)	+1.2
3	Brown University Bears	3	10.67 school +0.28	Hannah Steadman / Emma Montgomery 3.48 5–6 Ragna Agerup / Hunter Zonnenberg 3.62 5–6 Connor Nelson / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.36 4–6 Hannah Steadman / Annabelle Hutchinson 3.42 4–1 Connor Nelson / Julia Reynolds 3.35 4–1 Jack Murphy / Sawyer Balint 3.17 4–0 Ragna Agerup / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.61 3–1 Ragna Agerup / Emma Montgomery 3.71 1–0	66%	10–7 (59%)	−1.3
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4	9.72 school −0.13	Mack Fox / Christina Nothacker 3.62 Gage Schoenherr / Brian Nelson 3.41 Richie Gordon / Walter Gnann 2.79 9–7 Richie Gordon / Mary Tran 2.65 1–0	45%	10–7 (59%)	+2.3
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	8.60 school +0.10	Dreugh Phillips / Emily Harrison 3.29 Parker Purrington / Abigail Tutt 2.47 Bridget Groble / Raymond Domena 2.73	27%	5–9 (36%)	+1.2
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6	9.26 school +0.39, home +0.39	Leo Boucher / Ashley Wagner 3.33 2–9 Joshua Paper / Sam Muir 2.82 2–7 Oscar Macgillivray / Thomas Walker 2.27 2–5 Oscar Macgillivray / Sophia Taczak 2.32 2–5 Joshua Paper / Lucas Masiello 2.78 2–3 Leo Boucher / Sophia Taczak 3.40 2–1	40%	4–10 (29%)	−1.6
7	Jacksonville University Fins	5	8.96 school +0.21	Samuel Baker / Natalia Gagliano Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Grace Benzal 3.43 Andre Guaragna / Mia Porter 2.96 3–4 Andre Guaragna / Caroline Bourgeois 3.13 0–2	41%	3–6 (33%)	−0.7
8	George Washington University Colonials	7	8.87 school +0.16	Soenke Jordan / Jack Umina 2.90 Anthony Minder / Michael Houllahan 1–5 Matt Logue / Sarah Noyes 3.11 1–4 Matt Logue / Matthew Priebe 3.04 2–1 Michael Ehnot / Michael Houllahan 2–1 Matt Logue / Ana Carrasco Solla 3.04 0–1	39%	3–6 (33%)	−0.5
9	Fordham University Rams	10	7.84 school +0.35	Eduardo Mintzias / Edward Harrison 3.23 Thomas Rice / Annika Ekholm 1.26 Tucker Hersam / Cortney Rielly 2.98	19%	2–7 (22%)	+0.3
10	University of South Florida Bulls	9	8.14 school +0.29	Christian Koules / John Monahan 2.29 Kathryn Bornarth / Samantha Kappaz 2.60 Marina Barzaghi / Carolina Perez Rovira 2.95	24%	1–8 (11%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.72	10.47	10–7	7.7	+0.75	1.2	15%
2	U. S. Naval Academy	11.14	11.67	14–3	12.8	+0.53	0.5	33%
5	Old Dominion University	8.60	9.10	5–9	3.8	+0.50	0.4	32%
9	Fordham University	7.84	8.04	2–7	1.7	+0.20	0.0	55%
1	Stanford University	11.44	11.56	14–3	13.7	+0.12	0.0	58%
8	George Washington University	8.87	8.55	3–6	3.5	−0.32	0.1	79%
7	Jacksonville University	8.96	8.54	3–6	3.7	−0.42	0.2	82%
3	Brown University	10.67	10.25	10–7	11.3	−0.42	0.4	85%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.26	8.58	4–10	5.6	−0.67	0.8	91%
10	University of South Florida	8.14	7.11	1–8	2.1	−1.04	0.8	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Gage Schoenherr	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.41	4.16	10–7	7.7	+0.75	1.2	15%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.65	4.18	14–3	12.8	+0.53	0.5	33%
Eduardo Mintzias	Fordham University	3.23	3.43	2–7	1.7	+0.20	0.0	55%
Thomas Rice	Fordham University	1.26	1.46	2–7	1.7	+0.20	0.0	55%
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	2.96	2.53	3–6	3.7	−0.42	0.2	82%
Samuel Baker	Jacksonville University	2.29	1.87	3–6	3.7	−0.42	0.2	82%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	3.43	3.01	3–6	3.7	−0.42	0.2	82%
Anthony Minder	George Washington University	2.72	2.11	1–5	1.5	−0.62	0.2	85%
Joshua Paper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.82	2.15	4–10	5.6	−0.67	0.8	91%
Christian Koules	University of South Florida	2.29	1.25	1–8	2.1	−1.04	0.8	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	90%
1	2	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	56%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	80%
1	4	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
1	5	Brown University	University of South Florida	93%
1	6	Jacksonville University	George Washington University	52%
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	96%
1	8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Old Dominion University	75%
1	9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	75%
1	10	Brown University	Stanford University	34%	upset
1	11	Fordham University	George Washington University	26%	upset
1	12	Jacksonville University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	31%	upset
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	95%
1	14	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	94%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	18%	upset
1	16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Fordham University	87%
1	17	George Washington University	University of South Florida	68%
1	18	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	92%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	86%
1	20	Brown University	Old Dominion University	88%
1	21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	83%
1	22	Stanford University	Fordham University	97%
1	23	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	40%	upset
1	24	Old Dominion University	Jacksonville University	42%	upset
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	59%
1	26	Stanford University	University of South Florida	96%
1	27	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	63%
1	28	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	68%
1	29	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	91%
1	30	Brown University	Jacksonville University	83%
1	31	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	90%
1	32	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	61%
1	33	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	20%	upset
1	34	Jacksonville University	Fordham University	75%
1	35	Brown University	George Washington University	85%
1	36	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	35%	upset
1	37	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
1	38	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	28%	upset
1	39	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	George Washington University	66%
1	40	Brown University	Fordham University	91%
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	93%
1	42	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Jacksonville University	54%
1	43	Stanford University	George Washington University	93%
1	44	Fordham University	University of South Florida	43%	upset
1	45	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	28%	upset
4	61	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
4	62	Stanford University	Brown University	66%
4	63	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
4	64	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
4	65	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	59%
4	66	Stanford University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
6	46	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	59%
6	47	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Old Dominion University	76%
6	48	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	90%
6	49	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
6	50	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
6	51	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	94%
6	52	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	63%
6	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	93%
6	54	Stanford University	Brown University	66%
6	55	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	34%	upset
6	56	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	71%
6	57	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	42%	upset
6	58	Brown University	Old Dominion University	88%
6	59	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	86%
6	60	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Stanford University	16%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Bears	Bears	Monarchs	Seahawks	Fins	Colonials	Rams	Bulls
Stanford University Cardinal	8–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–3	W	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7–2	L	W	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L
George Washington University Colonials	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	L	W
Fordham University Rams	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Bears	Bears
Stanford University Cardinal	3–0	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Midshipmen	Bears	Bears	Monarchs	Seahawks
Stanford University Cardinal	3–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
2	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
3	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
4	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
5	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
6	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
8	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
9	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
10	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
11	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
12	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
13	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
15	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
16	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
17	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
18	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
19	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
20	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
21	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
22	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
23	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
24	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
25	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
28	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
29	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
30	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
31	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
32	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
33	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
34	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
35	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
36	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
37	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
38	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
39	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
40	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
41	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
42	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
43	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Colonials	1-4-6
44	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
45	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
61	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
62	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
63	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
64	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
65	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
66	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
46	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
47	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
50	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
51	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
52	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
53	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
55	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
56	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
57	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
58	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
59	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
60	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jack Parkin '21 Jacob Rosenberg '20 Wiley Rogers '22	Taylor Kirkpatrick '20 Camille White '22 Sammy Pickell '22
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Connor Bayless '21 Jc Hermus '22 Parker Loftus '20	Sean Linden '21 Kimmie Leonard '22 Jonah Hatt '23 Emma Remis '20 Colin Macgillivray '23 Sally Johnson '22
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Hannah Steadman '20 Jack Murphy '22 Ragna Agerup '20	Madeleine Mcgrath '22 Julia Reynolds '22 Emma Montgomery '22 Annabelle Hutchinson '21 Sawyer Balint '20 Hunter Zonnenberg '23
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Gage Schoenherr '21 Mack Fox '20 Richie Gordon '21	Brian Nelson '21 Christina Nothacker '21 Walter Gnann '21 Mary Tran '22
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Bridget Groble '22 Dreugh Phillips '21 Parker Purrington '24	Raymond Domena '23 Emily Harrison '21 Abigail Tutt '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Joshua Paper '20 Leo Boucher '22 Oscar Macgillivray '23	Sam Muir '22 Lucas Masiello '23 Ashley Wagner '20 Sophia Taczak '21 Thomas Walker '21
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Samuel Baker '22	Grace Benzal '23 Mia Porter '22 Caroline Bourgeois '22 Natalia Gagliano '23
George Washington University	Colonials	Anthony Minder '24 Matt Logue '22 Michael Ehnot '22 Soenke Jordan '21	Michael Houllahan '20 Ana Carrasco Solla '22 Matthew Priebe '22 Sarah Noyes '20 Jack Umina '22
Fordham University	Rams	Eduardo Mintzias '21 Thomas Rice '23 Tucker Hersam '20	Edward Harrison '22 Annika Ekholm '20 Cortney Rielly '20
University of South Florida	Bulls	Christian Koules '21 Kathryn Bornarth '21 Marina Barzaghi '21	John Monahan '20 Samantha Kappaz '21 Carolina Perez Rovira '22

Conditions — 03/07/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1026.1 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.3 kn

avg · max 17.8 kn

Gusts to 39.1 kn

From NNW (343°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1026.1 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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