Jacksonville University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–18 (40%) as crew 6–8 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 9–12 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 6–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (44 matches) the record is 18–26 against 18.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-28 | ODU vs Jacksonville Team Race | skipper | 2.42 | 3.54 | 3–3 | 1.6 | +1.12 | 1.2 | 18% |
| 2021-02-28 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 2.46 | 1.40 | 6–9 | 8.6 | −1.06 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2020-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 2.29 | 1.87 | 3–6 | 3.7 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 2.48 | 2.89 | 6–8 | 5.0 | +0.40 | 0.3 | 36% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.6 | 2.10 |
| ODU vs Jacksonville Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 33% | — |
| ODU vs Jacksonville Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 1 | 11.0 | 0.32 |
| Nelson Roltsch Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Nelson Roltsch Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 2.51 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 2.66 |
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 1.90 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.4 | 3.69 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #5 | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | 1.98 |
| SAISA North Points #2 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.0 | 3.18 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 3.08 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
