SAISA South Points #1

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 56
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 65
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Spinners 116
4 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 178
5 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 1 185
6 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 186
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins A 4 7 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 22 Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 [1-5]
Telmo Basterra '21 [6-10]
Josh Becker '24 [1-5]
Mia Porter '22 [6-10]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins B 2 1 2 1 6 2 3 2 3 3 25 David Perez '21 [1-5]
Samuel Baker '22 [6-10]
Madison Reynolds '21 [1-5]
Lauren Theis '22 [6-10]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins B 3 3 9 2 2 3 2 4 5 1 34 Andre Guaragna '21 [1-5]
Chris Kiener '21 [6-10]
Caroline Bourgeois '22 [1-5]
Logan Brickhouse '21 [6-10]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins A 5 2 3 4 3 4 4 6 4 5 40 Ian Hunter '21
Elizabeth Johnson '22
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Spinners B 6 5 5 6 4 5 6 3 7 4 51 Jarret Monroe '23
Elisabeth Bowman '22
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 A 1 8 4 5 8 6 7 5 2 6 52 Mitchell Quinn '24
Kathleen Perry '24
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Spinners A 8 4 6 8 5 7 5 9 6 7 65 Joel Bogaert '23
Joseph Bryan '23
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 1 B 9 6 10 7 7 10 9 7 8 8 81 Jack Rachek '21
Ryan Austin '22
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers A 7 11 7 9 11 8 8 8 11 10 90 Brandon Depalma '24
Mary Macdonald '24
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers B 11 10 8 10 9 9 11 10 9 9 96 Andrew Dixon '22
Suzie Dixon '23
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 1 A 10 9 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 104 Brian Herbster '23
Naomi Sterlingsdottir '22
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 B 12 12 12 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 126 Tanner Cummings '24
Cassandra Kohlhepp '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles 11111111111
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles 22222222222
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers3333333333
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins5555555555
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins4444444444
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Spinners6666666666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles 17777777777
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles 28888888888
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers9999999999
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins11111111111111111111
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins10101010101010101010
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Spinners12121212121212121212

Conditions — 03/06/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1018.6 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.8 kn
avg  ·  max 17.1 kn
Gusts to 30.1 kn
From NE (37°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine4.6 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1018.6 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jacksonville: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.33 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →