Jacksonville University '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 63.50 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.082 rating points from 245 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 103–74 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 5 | — | 30–32 |
| Spring 2021 | 4 | — | 23–10 |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | — | 11–9 |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | — | 39–23 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (173 matches) the record is 103–70 against 102.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-03 | SAISA Women's Team Racing Championship | crew | 2.11 | 1.74 | 6–3 | 6.6 | −0.37 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2022-03-05 | Green Wave Women's Team Race | crew | 2.23 | 0.68 | 10–15 | 15.6 | −1.54 | 6.3 | >99% |
| 2022-02-26 | Phebe Corckran King Women's Team Race | crew | 2.16 | 1.58 | 6–8 | 7.5 | −0.58 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2022-02-19 | USF Women's Team Race | crew | 1.82 | 2.46 | 8–4 | 6.5 | +0.64 | 0.7 | 26% |
| 2021-04-17 | SAISA Team Race Championships 2021 | crew | 2.95 | 4.06 | 5–1 | 4.0 | +1.11 | 0.8 | 32% |
| 2021-03-28 | ODU vs Jacksonville Team Race | crew | 3.01 | 1.50 | 3–3 | 4.9 | −1.51 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2021-03-27 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 3.02 | 3.18 | 4–2 | 3.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2021-02-28 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | crew | 3.54 | 3.51 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2020-02-15 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | crew | 3.16 | 3.49 | 11–7 | 10.2 | +0.33 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2019-04-06 | SAISA Team Race Conference Championships | crew | 3.15 | 4.69 | 8–2 | 5.9 | +1.53 | 2.2 | 9% |
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 3.18 | 2.32 | 1–3 | 1.8 | −0.86 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2019-03-02 | Bob Bavier Team Race | crew | 2.91 | 3.68 | 10–9 | 7.4 | +0.76 | 1.5 | 12% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | crew | 2.81 | 3.20 | 10–5 | 8.9 | +0.39 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2019-02-16 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | crew | 2.66 | 3.65 | 10–4 | 8.3 | +0.99 | 1.2 | 17% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Caroline Bourgeois |  North Kingstown High School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
