| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 12–0 |
| 2 |  |
Jacksonville University | Lady Fins | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 3–9 |
| 4 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,936 team race matches sailed before 2022-02-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 24 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.377 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.81 ± 0.43: an orderly event, more orderly than 99% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University Green Wave | 1 | 8.37 school −0.09 | Caroline Benson / Lydia Brown 2.83 Mia Hanes / Essie Clifton 2.34 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Lucy Spearman 3.18 | 82% | 12–0 (100%) | +2.2 |
| 2 | Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 2 | 7.36 school +0.15 | Emily Allen / Grace Benzal Maartje Van Dam / Caroline Bourgeois Charlotte Rose / Rori Bywater 2.90 | 54% | 8–4 (67%) | +1.5 |
| 3 | College of Charleston Cougars | 4 | 6.36 school +0.41 | Kiera Oreardon / Lucy Klempen 2.26 Fredrikke Foss / Roxanne Snyder Grace Squires / Kalea Woodard 1.87 | 25% | 3–9 (25%) | −0.0 |
| 4 | University of South Florida Bulls | 3 | 6.85 school +0.19, home +0.36 | Emma Shakespeare / Mary Mclauchlin 2.37 Sydney Monahan / Olivia Smith 2.19 Heidi Hicks / Carolina Perez Rovira | 39% | 1–11 (8%) | −3.7 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulane University | 8.37 | 11.37 | 12–0 | 9.8 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 8% |
| 2 | Jacksonville University | 7.36 | 8.00 | 8–4 | 6.5 | +0.64 | 0.7 | 26% |
| 3 | College of Charleston | 6.36 | 6.34 | 3–9 | 3.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 4 | University of South Florida | 6.85 | 4.67 | 1–11 | 4.7 | −2.17 | 4.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Hanes | Tulane University | 2.34 | 5.34 | 12–0 | 9.8 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | Tulane University | 3.18 | 6.18 | 12–0 | 9.8 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 8% |
| Maartje Van Dam | Jacksonville University | 1.82 | 2.46 | 8–4 | 6.5 | +0.64 | 0.7 | 26% |
| Charlotte Rose | Jacksonville University | 2.90 | 3.54 | 8–4 | 6.5 | +0.64 | 0.7 | 26% |
| Kiera Oreardon | College of Charleston | 2.26 | 2.25 | 3–9 | 3.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Fredrikke Foss | College of Charleston | 1.50 | 1.48 | 3–9 | 3.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Fins | Cougars | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Fins | Cougars | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Fins | Cougars | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wave | Fins | Cougars | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Lady Fins | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Lady Fins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Lady Fins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Lady Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Lady Fins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Lady Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Lady Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lady Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Lady Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Lady Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Caroline Benson '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Mia Hanes '24 |
Lydia Brown '23 Lucy Spearman '25 Essie Clifton '25 |
|
Jacksonville University | Lady Fins | Charlotte Rose '22 Emily Allen '25 Maartje Van Dam '23 |
Rori Bywater '25 Grace Benzal '23 Caroline Bourgeois '22 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24 Kiera Oreardon '22 |
Roxanne Snyder '23 Kalea Woodard '24 Lucy Klempen '24 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Sydney Monahan '23 |
Mary Mclauchlin '25 Carolina Perez Rovira '22 Olivia Smith '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
