| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 4–6 |
| 4 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 2–8 |
| 5 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,407 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 22 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.469 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.13 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 30% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 11.22 school +0.49 | Jack Brown / Hunter Skinner 3.46 Steven Leuck / Payton Alexander 3.43 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.83 | 91% | 8–2 (80%) | −1.1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville University Fins | 2 | 9.63 school +0.26 | Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Daniel Ofarril 3.52 Andre Guaragna / Caroline Bourgeois 3.15 Stephan Verhulst / Ana Carrasco 2.68 | 59% | 8–2 (80%) | +2.1 |
| 3 | University of South Florida Bulls | 4 | 8.26 school +0.09 | John Whitehead / John Monahan 2.57 Scott Ewing / Carolina Perez Rovira 2.42 Marina Barzaghi / Darby Capellin 3.13 | 26% | 4–6 (40%) | +1.4 |
| 4 | Eckerd College Tritons | 3 | 8.95 school +0.13 | Daniel Vail / Jackie Morrison 2.55 Ian Willoughby / Kim Kusminsky 2.93 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Camryn Kennedy 3.33 | 42% | 2–8 (20%) | −2.2 |
| 5 | University of Miami Hurricanes | 5 | 6.42 school −0.13 | Richard Mccann / Grace Harden Robert Turigliatto / Alex Sidi Kaitlyn Delisser / Leah Harper | 6% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jacksonville University | 9.63 | 11.17 | 8–2 | 5.9 | +1.53 | 2.2 | 9% |
| 3 | University of South Florida | 8.26 | 9.11 | 4–6 | 2.6 | +0.85 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 11.22 | 10.30 | 8–2 | 9.1 | −0.92 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 4 | Eckerd College | 8.95 | 7.39 | 2–8 | 4.2 | −1.56 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 5 | University of Miami | 6.42 | 3.42 | 0–4 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | Jacksonville University | 3.52 | 5.06 | 8–2 | 5.9 | +1.53 | 2.2 | 9% |
| Andre Guaragna | Jacksonville University | 3.15 | 4.69 | 8–2 | 5.9 | +1.53 | 2.2 | 9% |
| Stephan Verhulst | Jacksonville University | 2.68 | 4.21 | 8–2 | 5.9 | +1.53 | 2.2 | 9% |
| John Whitehead | University of South Florida | 2.57 | 3.42 | 4–6 | 2.6 | +0.85 | 0.9 | 22% |
| Scott Ewing | University of South Florida | 2.42 | 3.27 | 4–6 | 2.6 | +0.85 | 0.9 | 22% |
| Jack Brown | College of Charleston | 3.46 | 2.54 | 8–2 | 9.1 | −0.92 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Augie Dale | College of Charleston | 3.83 | 2.90 | 8–2 | 9.1 | −0.92 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Ian Willoughby | Eckerd College | 2.93 | 1.37 | 2–8 | 4.2 | −1.56 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | Eckerd College | 3.33 | 1.77 | 2–8 | 4.2 | −1.56 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Richard Mccann | University of Miami | 2.03 | -0.97 | 0–4 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Robert Turigliatto | University of Miami | 2.34 | -0.66 | 0–4 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Kaitlyn Delisser | University of Miami | 1.94 | -1.06 | 0–4 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Tritons | Hurricanes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–2 | ✕ | L | L | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 4–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–2 | W | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 2–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulls | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Tritons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Fins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Augie Dale '19 Jack Brown '21 Steven Leuck '20 |
Katherine Lounsbury '20 Hunter Skinner '20 Payton Alexander '19 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Stephan Verhulst '19 |
Daniel Ofarril '22 Caroline Bourgeois '22 Ana Carrasco '21 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | John Whitehead '20 Marina Barzaghi '21 Scott Ewing '18 |
John Monahan '20 Darby Capellin '19 Carolina Perez Rovira '22 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Daniel Vail '21 Ian Willoughby '21 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 |
Jackie Morrison '23 Kim Kusminsky '19 Camryn Kennedy '21 |
|
University of Miami | Hurricanes | Kaitlyn Delisser '20 Richard Mccann '23 Robert Turigliatto '22 |
Leah Harper '22 Grace Harden '22 Alex Sidi '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
