Eckerd College '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.26 (fleet 3.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–96 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 3 | 15–52 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 22–32 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 5–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (138 matches) the record is 42–96 against 43.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 2.85 | 6–18 | 5.7 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 2020-02-29 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 2.64 | 4–15 | 4.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2020-02-22 | Frank L. Mendleblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.77 | 2.64 | 5–19 | 5.5 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2019-04-06 | SAISA Team Race Conference Championships | skipper | 2.93 | 1.37 | 2–8 | 4.2 | −1.56 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2019-03-16 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 2.72 | 6–12 | 6.3 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2019-03-09 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.76 | 3.35 | 7–7 | 5.5 | +0.59 | 0.6 | 25% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 2.60 | 3.19 | 7–5 | 5.3 | +0.59 | 0.7 | 24% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 0.99 | 5–12 | 6.6 | −1.24 | 1.5 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 25% | — |
| Frank L. Mendleblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 21% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.2 | 2.60 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.8 | 3.42 |
| SAISA Co-Ed Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.0 | 2.79 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 15.5 | 2.66 |
| Coed Showcase Qualifier B | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.2 | 1.63 |
| Coed Showcase Tournament | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.5 | 2.28 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| SAISA Team Race Conference Championships | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 2.7 | 4.04 |
| SAISA Co-Ed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 2.28 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.3 | 3.00 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.4 | 2.91 |
| SAISA Fall Co-ed Championships | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 3.42 |
| Harvard Coed Showcase 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.5 | 2.75 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.2 | 3.01 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Point #4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.7 | 3.81 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.1 | 2.86 |
| SAISA Spring Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 3.02 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 16% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.5 | 3.27 |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.3 | 2.85 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points #6 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 3.13 |
| SAISA South Points #4 | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.4 | 2.59 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.4 | -0.01 |
| SAISA South Points #2 | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.4 | 0.96 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
