Rudkin Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/07/2020
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Connecticut College	Camels	20–4
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	17–7
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	17–7
4	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–12
5	Boston College	Eagles	11–13
6	Eckerd College	Tritons	6–18
7	Yale University	Bulldogs	1–23

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,785 team race matches sailed before 2020-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 66 of 84 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.471 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Connecticut College Camels	3	9.94 school +0.27	Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.36 Thomas Whittemore / Paige Dunlevy 3.25 Cj Mckenna / Katherine (Katie) Rodger 3.03	62%	20–4 (83%)	+5.2
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	9.94 school +0.32, home +0.39	Cameron Wood / Emily Gildea 2.99 16–4 Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.39 15–5 David Wood / Julia O'Connor 11–5 Grant Gridley / Julia O'Connor 3.10 6–2 David Wood / Rachel Holick 2–2 Grant Gridley / Emily Gildea 3.06 1–3	63%	17–7 (71%)	+2.0
3	College of Charleston Cougars	1	11.37 school +0.55	Steven Leuck / Noelle Owen 3.65 Jack Brown / Oliver Parsons 3.67 12–4 Max Mayol / Hunter Skinner 12–4 Jack Brown / Hunter Skinner 3.70 5–3 Max Mayol / Anna Sherry 5–3	88%	17–7 (71%)	−4.1
4	Stanford University Cardinal	4	9.91 school +0.54	Michelle Lahrkamp / Abigail Tindall 3.42 9–11 Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Mathew Hogan 3.36 9–11 John Kirkpatrick / Patricia Gerli 2.66 8–12 Justin Lim / Patricia Gerli 2.59 4–0 Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Abigail Tindall 3.46 3–1 Justin Lim / Mathew Hogan 2.58 3–1	61%	12–12 (50%)	−2.7
5	Boston College Eagles	5	9.08 school +0.23	Jack Denatale / Elizabeth Russell 2.95 Robert Hunter / Laura Ferraris 3.00 Scott Rasmussen / Nicole Moeder 2.81	43%	11–13 (46%)	+0.6
6	Eckerd College Tritons	6	7.88 school +0.12	Ian Willoughby / Jackie Morrison 2.74 Daniel Vail / Virginia Kilbourne 2.62 3–17 Alec Fisichella / Camryn Kennedy 2–10 Alec Fisichella / Faviola Collazo-Velez 4–8 Daniel Vail / Camryn Kennedy 2.63 3–1	24%	6–18 (25%)	+0.3
7	Yale University Bulldogs	7	7.05 school +0.26	Christophe Chaumont / Allison Rice 2.26 Martin Tipton / Emery Wallace 1.93 Sam Tobin / Mina Cezairli 2.38	10%	1–23 (4%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Connecticut College	9.94	11.44	20–4	14.8	+1.49	5.3	1%
2	Roger Williams University	9.94	10.44	17–7	15.0	+0.50	0.7	23%
5	Boston College	9.08	9.22	11–13	10.4	+0.14	0.1	48%
6	Eckerd College	7.88	7.99	6–18	5.7	+0.11	0.0	52%
4	Stanford University	9.91	9.29	12–12	14.7	−0.62	1.2	94%
7	Yale University	7.05	6.05	1–23	2.4	−1.00	0.9	93%
3	College of Charleston	11.37	10.16	17–7	21.1	−1.21	3.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	3.25	4.75	20–4	14.8	+1.49	5.3	1%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.39	4.40	15–5	11.6	+1.00	2.4	6%
Alec Fisichella	Eckerd College	2.31	2.41	6–18	5.7	+0.11	0.0	52%
Ian Willoughby	Eckerd College	2.74	2.85	6–18	5.7	+0.11	0.0	52%
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo	Stanford University	3.36	2.74	12–12	14.7	−0.62	1.2	94%
Martin Tipton	Yale University	1.93	0.93	1–23	2.4	−1.00	0.9	93%
Sam Tobin	Yale University	2.38	1.38	1–23	2.4	−1.00	0.9	93%
Jack Brown	College of Charleston	3.67	2.46	17–7	21.1	−1.21	3.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Boston College	73%
1	2	College of Charleston	Connecticut College	80%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	84%
1	4	Stanford University	Yale University	96%
1	5	College of Charleston	Boston College	91%
1	6	Connecticut College	Eckerd College	89%
1	7	Roger Williams University	Yale University	95%
1	8	College of Charleston	Stanford University	79%
1	9	Boston College	Eckerd College	77%
1	10	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	51%
1	11	College of Charleston	Yale University	99%
1	12	Eckerd College	Stanford University	18%	upset
1	13	Boston College	Roger Williams University	31%	upset
1	14	Connecticut College	Yale University	95%
1	15	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	97%
1	16	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	55%
1	17	Connecticut College	Boston College	71%
1	18	Yale University	Eckerd College	29%	upset
1	19	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	18%	upset
1	20	Connecticut College	Stanford University	48%	upset
1	21	Boston College	Yale University	89%
2	22	Stanford University	Boston College	73%
2	23	Connecticut College	College of Charleston	19%	upset
2	24	Eckerd College	Roger Williams University	15%	upset
2	25	Stanford University	Yale University	95%
2	26	Boston College	College of Charleston	9%	upset
2	27	Connecticut College	Eckerd College	89%
2	28	Roger Williams University	Yale University	95%
2	29	College of Charleston	Stanford University	79%
2	30	Boston College	Eckerd College	77%
2	31	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	51%
2	32	College of Charleston	Yale University	99%
2	33	Stanford University	Eckerd College	81%
2	34	Roger Williams University	Boston College	70%
2	35	Connecticut College	Yale University	95%
2	36	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	97%
2	37	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	55%
2	38	Boston College	Connecticut College	30%	upset
2	39	Eckerd College	Yale University	70%
2	40	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	81%
2	41	Stanford University	Connecticut College	52%
2	42	Boston College	Yale University	88%
3	43	Stanford University	Boston College	72%
3	44	Connecticut College	College of Charleston	19%	upset
3	45	Eckerd College	Roger Williams University	14%	upset
3	46	Stanford University	Yale University	95%
3	47	College of Charleston	Boston College	91%
3	48	Connecticut College	Eckerd College	88%
3	49	Roger Williams University	Yale University	95%
3	50	College of Charleston	Stanford University	79%
3	51	Boston College	Eckerd College	76%
3	52	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
3	53	College of Charleston	Yale University	99%
3	54	Stanford University	Eckerd College	81%
3	55	Roger Williams University	Boston College	71%
3	56	Connecticut College	Yale University	95%
3	57	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	97%
3	58	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	54%
3	59	Connecticut College	Boston College	70%
3	60	Eckerd College	Yale University	69%
3	61	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	20%	upset
3	62	Connecticut College	Stanford University	47%	upset
3	63	Boston College	Yale University	88%
4	64	Stanford University	Boston College	72%
4	65	Connecticut College	College of Charleston	19%	upset
4	66	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	86%
4	67	Stanford University	Yale University	95%
4	68	College of Charleston	Boston College	91%
4	69	Connecticut College	Eckerd College	88%
4	70	Roger Williams University	Yale University	95%
4	71	College of Charleston	Stanford University	79%
4	72	Boston College	Eckerd College	76%
4	73	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	47%	upset
4	74	College of Charleston	Yale University	99%
4	75	Stanford University	Eckerd College	80%
4	76	Roger Williams University	Boston College	71%
4	77	Connecticut College	Yale University	94%
4	78	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	97%
4	79	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	54%
4	80	Connecticut College	Boston College	70%
4	81	Eckerd College	Yale University	69%
4	82	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	20%	upset
4	83	Connecticut College	Stanford University	47%	upset
4	84	Boston College	Yale University	88%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Camels	Hawks	Cougars	Cardinal	Eagles	Tritons	Bulldogs
Connecticut College Camels	5–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	2–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Boston College Eagles	3–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Yale University Bulldogs	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Camels	Hawks	Cougars	Cardinal	Eagles	Tritons	Bulldogs
Connecticut College Camels	3–3	✕	L	W	L	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–2	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–2	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Yale University Bulldogs	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Camels	Hawks	Cougars	Cardinal	Eagles	Tritons	Bulldogs
Connecticut College Camels	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Yale University Bulldogs	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Camels	Hawks	Cougars	Cardinal	Eagles	Tritons	Bulldogs
Connecticut College Camels	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Yale University Bulldogs	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
2	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
3	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
4	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
5	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
6	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
7	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
8	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
9	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
10	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
11	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
12	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
13	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
14	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
15	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
16	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
17	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
18	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
19	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
20	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
21	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
22	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
23	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
24	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
25	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
26	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
27	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
28	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
29	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
30	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
31	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
32	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
33	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
34	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
35	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
36	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
37	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
38	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
39	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
40	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
41	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
42	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
44	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
45	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
46	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
47	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
48	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
49	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
50	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
51	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
52	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
53	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
55	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
56	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6 DNF
57	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
58	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
59	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
60	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
61	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
62	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
63	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
64	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
65	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
66	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
67	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
68	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
69	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
70	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
71	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
72	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
73	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
74	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
75	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
76	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
77	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
78	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
79	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
80	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
81	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
82	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
83	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
84	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Cj Mckenna '23 Thomas Whittemore '23	Cecilia Moreira '20 Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 Paige Dunlevy '20
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Cameron Wood '22 David Wood '23 Grant Gridley '22 Spencer Cartwright '22	Emily Gildea '21 Julia O'Connor '24 Rachel Holick '22
College of Charleston	Cougars	Jack Brown '21 Max Mayol '23 Steven Leuck '20	Oliver Parsons '21 Hunter Skinner '20 Anna Sherry '23 Noelle Owen '23
Stanford University	Cardinal	John Kirkpatrick '22 Justin Lim '23 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo '22	Patricia Gerli '23 Mathew Hogan '21 Abigail Tindall '23
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Denatale '22 Robert Hunter '22 Scott Rasmussen '20	Elizabeth Russell '21 Laura Ferraris '22 Nicole Moeder '22
Eckerd College	Tritons	Alec Fisichella '23 Daniel Vail '21 Ian Willoughby '21	Faviola Collazo-Velez '23 Camryn Kennedy '21 Virginia Kilbourne '20 Jackie Morrison '23
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christophe Chaumont '23 Martin Tipton '21 Sam Tobin '23	Allison Rice '23 Emery Wallace '21 Mina Cezairli '21

Conditions — 03/07/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 34% · Pressure 1018.4 hPa

Temperature

38°F

↑ 42°F ↓ 32°F

Feels like 24°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

15.8 kn

avg · max 18.8 kn

Gusts to 28.6 kn

From NNW (348°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover78% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity34% Pressure1018.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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