Yale University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.72 (fleet 2.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–28 (7%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 1–23 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 2–28 against 2.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 1.93 | 0.93 | 1–23 | 2.4 | −1.00 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2019-03-02 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.42 | 2.58 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.16 | 0.5 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 4% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.3 | 2.63 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 11.7 | 1.01 |
| Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.4 | 2.41 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Central Series Four | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.0 | 3.08 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.8 | 1.68 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.9 | 1.98 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.9 | 1.75 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 at URI | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.9 | -0.10 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 9.7 | 2.00 |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 10 | 11.3 | 1.79 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.7 | 1.80 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 9 | 12.9 | 1.17 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.1 | 0.72 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
