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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 5 19 19
2 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 8 24 24
3 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 4 43 43
4 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 50 50
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 61 61
6 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 6 70 70
7 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4 80 80
8 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 3 83 83
9 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 87 87
10 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 99 99
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 107 107
12 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 109 109
13 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 7 114 114
14 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 130 130
15 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 138 138
16 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 154 154
17 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 162 162
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 5 2 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 4 19 Nicholas Marwell '21
Anisha Arcot '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 8 4 3 2 3 3 1 4 1 2 1 24 Dylan Dimarchi '20
Becca Rose '22
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 4 3 4 9 1 4 4 2 7 4 5 43 Nicholas Davies '24
Helena Ware '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 6 7 4 7 2 2 6 4 6 6 50 Catherine "B" Lindsay '23
Benjamin Markert '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 1 1 3 4 9 7 3 8 13 12 61 Chloe Holder '23
Cali Salinas '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 6 9 9 13 5 12 6 5 3 5 3 70 Sam Tobin '23
Mina Cezairli '21
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4 8 5 7 14 6 5 12 6 8 9 80 Ryan Mckinney '24
Jean-Michel Bus '22
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 3 5 8 10 8 10 9 8 10 7 8 83 Martin Tipton '21
Alexandra Contomichalos '22
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 14 13 8 9 8 8 10 12 3 2 87 Christophe Chaumont '23
Allison Rice '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 7 10 14 11 11 13 7 5 10 11 99 Harris Padegs '23
Abigail Lenox '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 11 17 5 6 7 10 9 13 15 14 107 Charlotte Lenz '20
Devin Hart '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 10 6 12 10 16 11 11 14 12 7 109 William O'Leary '22
Avery White '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 7 17 11 6 12 13 14 13 9 9 10 114 Petru Neagu '23
Sydney Zoehrer '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 12 16 15 15 5 16 14 11 11 15 130 Elena Gonick '20
Delilah Roberts '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 13 15 11 13 14 12 15 15 14 16 138 Lera Anders '22
Paige Tyler '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 15 12 16 16 15 15 16 16 16 17 154 Madeline Simms '23
Hailey Mckelvie '22
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 16 14 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 13 162 Charles Bresnahan '24
Simon Moreira '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 11111111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 22222222222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 33333333333
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 44444444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 15555555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 26666666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 37777777777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 48888888888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 59999999999
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 111111111111111111111
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 212121212121212121212
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 313131313131313131313
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 414141414141414141414
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 515151515151515151515
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 616161616161616161616
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 717171717171717171717
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 818181818181818181818

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From SSW (192°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1022.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn · S 8 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Yale: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.78 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →