Tufts University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.67 (fleet 2.33) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–23 (21%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 6–23 against 7.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.93 | -1.07 | 0–15 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.76 | 2.12 | 6–8 | 5.1 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.0 | 2.01 |
| Yale Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.7 | 1.94 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | B | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Tufts September Invite | Skipper | A, B | 16 | 9.1 | A -0.12 · B 0.02 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.6 | 2.38 |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.0 | 1.91 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.0 | 3.32 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.4 | 2.23 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.9 | 2.38 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.3 | 3.16 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.4 | 2.81 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.9 | 3.00 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.8 | 1.30 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.5 | 2.93 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 3.33 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 at URI | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.4 | 0.34 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.0 | 1.68 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.3 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.6 | 1.32 |
| Protest | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.8 | -0.16 |
| Lark Invite- Central Series One | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.5 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.0 | 1.04 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.3 | 2.15 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.3 | 2.34 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.6 | 2.07 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | C | 5 | 10.4 | — |
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 2.42 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Central 3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.7 | 1.25 |
| Alymers | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.6 | 1.83 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | — |
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.2 | 1.92 |
| Stuart Walker Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 0.26 |
| Protest | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.5 | -0.09 |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Professor Noringer | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 2.29 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.8 | 2.38 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.1 | 0.48 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Charlotte Lenz |  Santa Cruz High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
