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Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 13–2
2 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 12–3
3 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 9–6
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 6–9
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5–10
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,383 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 45 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.513 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 47% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears		18.62
school +0.24		Rachel Foster / Emma Montgomery 2.94
Olivia Belda / Emilia Ruth 3.13
Blaire Mccarthy / Catherine Mcclenahan 2.18		74%13–2 (87%)+2.0
2Yale University
Bulldogs		28.59
school +0.20		Megan Grimes / Becca Rose 2.48
Catherine "B" Lindsay / Catherine Mollerus 9–3
Louisa Nordstrom / Meredith Ryan 3.52 7–2
Louisa Nordstrom / Kathryn Clulo 3.48 5–1
Catherine "B" Lindsay / Kathryn Clulo 3–0		73%12–3 (80%)+1.0
3University of Rhode Island
Rams		56.93
school −0.33		Delaney Bamford / Alyssa Hall 2.79
Rebecca Read / Sage Walters 2.69
Meghan Haviland / Emilia Marino 1.69		33%9–6 (60%)+4.0
4Boston University
Terriers		46.99
school −0.09, home +0.36		Allison Cahn / Emma Figueredo 2.41
Carina Becker / Shannon Macdonald
Skye Shepherd / Gabriella Schmidt		35%6–9 (40%)+0.8
5Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		38.34Dana Haig / Abigail Lee 2.86
Lulu Russell / Isabelle Yen 2.44 4–5
Kaila Pfrang / Elissa Ito 4–5
Lulu Russell / Maile Jim 2.48 1–5
Kaila Pfrang / Veronika Silkin 1–5		67%5–10 (33%)−5.0
6Tufts University
Jumbos		66.21
school +0.13		Abbie Carlson / Jessica Friedman 2.08
Charlotte Lenz / Devin Hart 1.93
Annika Fedde / Juliana Testa 0–9
Annika Fedde / Caroline Kelly 0–6		18%0–15 (0%)−2.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3University of Rhode Island6.938.299–65.0+1.364.02%
1Brown University8.629.5713–211.0+0.951.318%
2Yale University8.599.0312–311.0+0.440.338%
4Boston University6.997.276–95.2+0.270.243%
5Massachusetts Institute of Technology8.346.635–1010.0−1.716.2>99%
6Tufts University6.213.210–152.8≤−3.004.3>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Rachel FosterBrown University2.943.8913–211.0+0.951.318%
Olivia BeldaBrown University3.134.0913–211.0+0.951.318%
Catherine "B" LindsayYale University2.142.5812–311.0+0.440.338%
Allison CahnBoston University2.412.696–95.2+0.270.243%
Abbie CarlsonTufts University2.08-0.920–152.8≤−3.004.3>99%
Annika FeddeTufts University1.79-1.210–152.8≤−3.004.3>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of Rhode Island81%
12Brown UniversityTufts University93%
13Yale UniversityBoston University81%
14Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology55%
15Yale UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island83%
16Boston UniversityTufts University71%
17Yale UniversityBrown University48%upset
18Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University90%
19University of Rhode IslandBoston University49%upset
110Yale UniversityTufts University92%
111Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island84%
112Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology21%upset
113University of Rhode IslandTufts University69%
114Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology57%
115Brown UniversityBoston University83%
216University of Rhode IslandMassachusetts Institute of Technology19%upset
217Brown UniversityTufts University92%
218Yale UniversityBoston University83%
219University of Rhode IslandTufts University68%
220Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston University79%
221Brown UniversityYale University51%
222Boston UniversityTufts University68%
223Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island84%
224Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology58%
225Brown UniversityBoston University84%
226Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University89%
227University of Rhode IslandYale University16%upset
228Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology57%
229Boston UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island52%
230Yale UniversityTufts University92%
331Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University88%
332University of Rhode IslandBoston University48%upset
333Yale UniversityBrown University50%upset
334Boston UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology21%upset
335Yale UniversityTufts University92%
336Brown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island85%
337Yale UniversityBoston University84%
338University of Rhode IslandMassachusetts Institute of Technology20%upset
339Brown UniversityTufts University91%
340University of Rhode IslandYale University15%upset
341Boston UniversityTufts University66%
342Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology58%
343University of Rhode IslandTufts University66%
344Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology60%
345Brown UniversityBoston University84%

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsBulldogsRamsTerriersEngineersJumbos
Brown University Bears4–1✕LWWWW
Yale University Bulldogs5–0W✕WWWW
University of Rhode Island Rams2–3LL✕WLW
Boston University Terriers2–3LLL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–3LLWL✕W
Tufts University Jumbos0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsBulldogsRamsTerriersEngineersJumbos
Brown University Bears5–0✕WWWWW
Yale University Bulldogs3–2L✕LWWW
University of Rhode Island Rams3–2LW✕LWW
Boston University Terriers2–3LLW✕LW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–3LLLW✕W
Tufts University Jumbos0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BearsBulldogsRamsTerriersEngineersJumbos
Brown University Bears4–1✕LWWWW
Yale University Bulldogs4–1W✕LWWW
University of Rhode Island Rams4–1LW✕WWW
Boston University Terriers2–3LLL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–4LLLL✕W
Tufts University Jumbos0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
2 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
3 Yale University Bulldogs 1-4-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-3-6
4 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
5 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
6 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
7 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-5 def. Brown University Bears 1-4-6
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-6
9 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
10 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-6
11 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
12 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
13 University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-6
14 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
15 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
16 University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-6
17 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
18 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 2-4-6
19 University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
20 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
21 Brown University Bears 2-3-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-5-6
22 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-6
23 Brown University Bears 1-3-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-6
24 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
25 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
26 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-6
27 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-5
28 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
29 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
30 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
31 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
32 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-6
33 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-6 def. Brown University Bears 2-4-5
34 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
35 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
36 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
37 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
38 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
39 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
40 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-4-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-6
41 Boston University Terriers 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
42 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
43 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-4-6
44 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
45 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5

Conditions — 02/29/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1008.1 hPa

Temperature

32°F
↑ 35°F   ↓ 24°F
Feels like 22°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From W (267°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1008.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Boston University — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Boston University in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled fleet-race days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →