Boston University '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 55.75 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.100 rating points from 86 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 1.85 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 12 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.68 (fleet 2.31) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–9 (40%) as crew 12–3 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 12–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 18–12 against 18.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 2.35 | 6–9 | 5.2 | +0.27 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | crew | 2.56 | 1.79 | 12–3 | 13.4 | −0.77 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.8 | 2.75 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.2 | 2.11 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.1 | 1.50 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.6 | 1.71 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | B | 12 | 6.5 | — |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.6 | 2.36 |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 2.85 |
| Southern 7 at URI | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.7 | 0.03 |
| Mendums Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.7 | 3.34 |
| Central Series #1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.6 | 1.70 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.6 | 2.16 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.8 | 2.62 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 9 | 9.7 | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.8 | 2.53 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.5 | 2.53 |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | 2.12 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 2.29 |
| David Lee Arnoff Regatta | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.0 | 2.45 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | B | 3 | 6.0 | — |
| Central | Crew | A | 12 | 4.1 | — |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | 1.79 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 0.94 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 0.97 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 15.1 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 9.0 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 2.0 | — |
| Mystic Lake Invite | Crew | B | 4 | 8.2 | — |
| Lark Invitational | Crew | B | 6 | 4.2 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 5.6 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | C | 6 | 9.2 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Skye Shepherd |  Lake Forest High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
