Mendums Pond Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 5 3 8
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 8 13
3 Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 13 8 21
4 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 11 14 25
5 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 14 14 28
6 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 17 22 39
7 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 24 24 48
8 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 20 30 50
9 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 31 20 51
10 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 29 25 54
11 University of Maine University of Maine Black Bears 30 30 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 3 1 5 Skye Shepherd '20
Megan Blagden '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 1 2 5 Elena Gonick '20
Mo Liu '22
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 3 4 4 11 Thomas Bouchard '21
Julianna Bennett '21
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 6 2 5 13 Colin Snow '22
Thomas Jagielski '22
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 5 6 3 14 Maya Stephani '20
Kaylee Mutch '22
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 4 7 6 17 Lisa Olsson '22
Katelyn Howe '22
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 8 5 7 20 Kate Azar '21
Mary Canzano '22
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 7 8 9 24 Parker Brannon '20
Caroline Ferguson '20
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 10 9 10 29 Elle Bukosky '22
Hannah Dillahunt '21
University of Maine University of Maine Black Bears 9 10 11 30 Taylor Davis '22
Eric Marshall '21
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 11 DNS 8 31 John Bogush '22
Madysen Delosh '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 1 1 3 Caleb Robinson '22
Trent Chismar '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 4 8 Alexandra Talbot '22
Hailey Mckelvie '22
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 3 3 2 8 Alexander Miller '22
Andrew Schnurr '21
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 5 4 5 14 Andrew Morrison '21
Kevin Collins '22
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 6 5 3 14 Julianna Bennett '21
Alexa Hansen '22
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 3 8 6 6 20 Clayton Greig '22
Emily Zaleski '22
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 7 8 7 22 David Swan '21
Kelsey Mako '21
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 9 7 8 24 Mae Harrington '19
Julia Becker '19
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 4 10 11 25 Julia Farr '20
Jeron Leblanc '22
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 10 11 9 30 Carter Ramquist '21
Sophie Wilson '22
University of Maine University of Maine Black Bears 11 9 10 30 Cully Richard '22
Alex Bair '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers111
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints222
University of MaineUniversity of Maine Black Bears777
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen888
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers333
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 1101010
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 2111111
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 3131313
Olin College of EngineeringOlin College of Engineering Phoenix444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos555
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers222
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints333
University of MaineUniversity of Maine Black Bears888
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen101010
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers444
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 1111111
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 2131313
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats 3151515
Olin College of EngineeringOlin College of Engineering Phoenix555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos777
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue111

Conditions — 04/28/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 18.5 kn
From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1014.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at New Hampshire: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.57 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Hampshire by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at New Hampshire).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →