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# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 139
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 179
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 229
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 237
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 300
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 304
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 304
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 326
9 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 444
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 1 2 1 5 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 12 1 8 42 Alp Rodopman '17
Ashley Smith '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 10 13 2 1 1 6 4 2 5 4 8 1 3 3 63 Nicholas Karnovsky '19
Christine Gosioco '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 2 5 4 7 4 4 5 9 6 9 2 8 4 7 76 Jessica Williams '20
Divya Arya '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 6 15 6 4 6 9 16 10 2 3 3 2 11 4 97 Jonathan Dicesare '18 [1-8]
James Collins '20 [9-14]
Olivia Cronin-Golomb '20 [1-8]
Skye Shepherd '20 [9-14]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers B 8 3 11 13 9 3 7 6 15 7 13 3 9 2 109
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers A 16 14 10 8 14 11 10 4 7 1 7 9 8 1 120 Stephen Duncan '20
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A DNF 6 5 18 3 5 14 5 3 11 10 5 10 9 123 Peter Girard '18
Ryan Geib '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 4 1 3 6 2 2 2 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 137 Julien Guiot '18 [1-8]
No Show [9-14]
Sam Gates '17 [1-8]
No Show [9-14]
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 5 8 15 16 7 10 9 15 13 14 4 6 5 13 140 Solomon Tarlin '17 [1-8]
Samuel Campbell '17 [9-14]
Samuel Wright '18 [1-8]
Sarah Ziobro '19 [9-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 A 13 12 18 9 12 12 3 17 11 5 9 7 2 10 140 John Duncan '19 [1-14]
Kelsey Foster '20 [1-8]
Emma Clutterbuck '20 [9-14]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 3 17 13 11 10 16 15 12 10 8 5 11 6 5 142 Sofia Kirkman '20
Claire Lockard '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 17 7 8 12 8 15 6 11 12 10 14 13 12 12 157 Erin Jacob '20
Michelle Chisdak '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 11 4 16 15 16 17 8 14 8 6 11 DNF 7 6 158 Kyle Riggs '21
Jon Ewing '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 B 15 11 14 14 11 14 13 16 9 13 6 4 13 11 164 Steven Honig '19 [1-8]
Andrew Savage '19 [9-14]
Chloe Amouyal '20 [1-8]
Grant Tilson '20 [9-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 9 10 12 10 15 8 17 7 14 12 12 10 14 DNS 169 Elena Gonick '20
Eve Harris '20
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 12 16 7 3 13 7 11 13 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 181 Karel Mailloux-Kuz '18
Samantha Hamilton '19
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech A 7 9 9 2 DNF 13 12 8 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 193 No Show
No Show
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech B 14 18 17 17 17 18 18 18 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 251 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers444444444
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson666666666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers888888888
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies101010101010101010
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams141414141414141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1111111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2222222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3333333333
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech121212121212121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers555555555
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson777777777
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers999999999
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies111111111111111111
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams151515151515151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1161616161616161616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2171717171717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3181818181818181818
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech131313131313131313

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1017.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From ESE (115°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1017.5 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn · W 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →