Northeastern University '21
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.33 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 17 | Fall 2018 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.33 (fleet 3.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 31–67 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 23–34 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 4–23 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (98 matches) the record is 31–67 against 31.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.77 | 2.88 | 4–10 | 3.7 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | 2.49 | 4–9 | 3.4 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2018-03-24 | Staake Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 0.80 | 5–15 | 9.7 | −1.53 | 4.9 | >99% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.37 | 3.35 | 4–3 | 2.5 | +0.98 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.23 | 3.40 | 10–7 | 5.7 | +1.16 | 3.7 | 2% |
| 2017-04-08 | Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | skipper | 2.25 | -0.75 | 0–15 | 3.8 | ≤−3.00 | 6.0 | >99% |
| 2017-04-02 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 1.85 | 2.75 | 4–8 | 2.6 | +0.90 | 1.0 | 21% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.8 | 2.85 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.5 | 2.92 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.5 | 3.01 |
| Coed Showcase Qualifier B | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.3 | 3.21 |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.4 | 2.69 |
| Coed Showcase Tournament | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.2 | 3.54 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.2 | 3.51 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.0 | 3.51 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 1.17 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.7 | 2.36 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.9 | 3.18 |
| 2018-NEISA Match Race Champs-Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Staake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 25% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 5.0 | 3.41 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.0 | 2.28 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.0 | 2.97 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 1.87 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.1 | 2.59 |
| NEISA Match Race Championships Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 12.0 | 2.80 |
| The 77th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.9 | 2.40 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 13.7 | 2.88 |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 17.0 | 0.64 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.1 | 1.30 |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | 2.43 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.4 | 1.96 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.5 | 1.36 |
| Lark Invitational | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.7 | -0.05 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 2 | 19.0 | — |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.8 | 2.25 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | A | 17 | 2.5 | 2.18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
