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Harvard Invitational

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10 26 36
2 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 29 15 44
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 31 21 52
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 24 36 60
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 33 31 64
6 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 35 30 65
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 33 37 70
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 35 48 83
9 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 50 44 94
10 Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 50 57 107
11 University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 66 55 121
12 Lord Jeffs Lord Jeffs Lord Jeffs 72 68 140
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 1 1 4 1 10 Julien Guiot '18
Sam Gates '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 9 3 2 1 6 24 Rachel Foster '20
Davis Tantillo '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 6 5 6 3 4 29 Kyle Riggs '21
Jon Ewing '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 6 1 8 4 5 7 31 Joseph Chamberlin '19 [1-6]
Julia Cho '20 [1-4]
Brooke Mcgoldrick '20 [5-6]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 4 4 10 2 9 33 Samuel Wright '18
Sarah Ziobro '19
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 10 3 2 9 7 2 33 Matthew Schryver '20
Caroline Rocchio '20
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 5 9 7 9 3 35 Jessica Williams '20 [1-6]
Cara Kennedy Cuomo '17 [1-2]
Juan Crestanello '20 [3-6]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 7 7 7 3 6 5 35 Fiona Mckellar '20
Jorlyn Le Garrec '17
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 8 8 6 8 10 10 50 Ethan Merrill '20
Theodore Lynn '18
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 9 10 10 5 8 8 50 Malich Altman '19
Emilie Macfie '17
University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 11 11 11 11 11 11 66 Morgan Lindback '17
Nick Demonte '18
Lord Jeffs Lord Jeffs Lord Jeffs 12 12 12 12 12 12 72
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 2 2 4 1 5 15 Zachary Bresnick '21
Connor O'Neill '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 6 1 1 7 5 1 21 John Reyes '19
Pavlina Karafillis '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 3 4 2 11 4 26 Nicholas Giacobbe '19
Lucy Robison '18
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 5 7 7 1 7 3 30 Sofia Marie Mascia '20
Cara Kennedy Cuomo '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 5 5 3 6 8 31 Andrew Stoycos '18
Olivia Cronin-Golomb '20
Brown University Brown University Bears 7 11 8 5 3 2 36 Henry Sharpe '17
Lauren Haller '18
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 4 3 8 10 9 37 Collin Benzoni '20
Alyssa Hall '20
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 8 9 10 6 4 7 44 William Gleckner '17
Lauren Morris '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 10 6 9 9 8 6 48 Alexander Peraire-Bueno '20
Rami Rustom '20
University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 11 10 11 10 2 11 55 Samuel Bissonnette '18
Madison Ouellette '18
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech 9 8 6 12 12 10 57 Adam Camilli '19
Cecilia Schroeder '20
Lord Jeffs Lord Jeffs Lord Jeffs 12 12 12 11 9 12 68
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (43 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Lord JeffsLord Jeffs Lord Jeffs113355
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers224466
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears335577
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson446688
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds7710101313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 155771010
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 266881111
University of New EnglandUniversity of New England Nor'Easters1111141422
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies8811111414
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams13131133
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1010131311
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech14142244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Lord JeffsLord Jeffs Lord Jeffs224466
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers335577
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears446688
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson55771010
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds8811111414
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 166881111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 27710101313
University of New EnglandUniversity of New England Nor'Easters13131133
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1010131311
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams14142244
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1111141422
Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech113355

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 96%  ·  Pressure 1024.3 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.6 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From NE (43°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1024.3 hPa Rain0.24 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.22 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →