Massachusetts Institute of Technology '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 45.83 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.078 rating points from 258 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.30 (fleet 0.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 21–18 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 2–4 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 6–12 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | — | 13–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 21–18 against 21.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.31 | 2.53 | 2–4 | 2.7 | −0.78 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 3.04 | 1.84 | 6–12 | 10.3 | −1.20 | 3.7 | 99% |
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | crew | 2.47 | 4.56 | 13–2 | 7.9 | +2.09 | 7.0 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 6 | 5.3 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 12.0 | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | A | 6 | 8.0 | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 11.3 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 12.4 | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Crew | A | 9 | 5.6 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 8.2 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 6.6 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A, B | 15 | 9.9 | — |
| Harvard Invitational | Crew | A | 6 | 5.8 | — |
| Central Series 1 | Crew | A | 12 | 5.2 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 5.8 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 13.2 | — |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 8 | 6.5 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 4.0 | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 6 | 3.5 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 7.3 | — |
| NEISA Invitational at MIT | Crew | A | 4 | 5.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 9.0 | — |
| Harvard Invitational | Crew | A | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 7.0 | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Crew | B | 8 | 4.4 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 12.8 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 10.2 | — |
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | B | 12 | 4.2 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 9.4 | — |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 7.2 | — |
| Crews Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 1.85 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 10.8 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 6.0 | — |
| Midweek Wellesley Tech Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | -1.47 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.6 | -1.13 |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 7.9 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Crew | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Mid-week Firefly #2 | Crew | A | 3 | 3.3 | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| Crews Regatta 2013 | Crew | B | 6 | 5.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
