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Stu Nelson

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 40 59 99
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 68 49 117
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 65 54 119
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 82 66 148
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 53 96 149
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 101 50 151
7 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 91 70 161
8 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 95 79 174
9 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 73 104 177
10 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 99 79 178
11 Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 84 102 186
12 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 71 117 188
13 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 86 106 192
14 Boston University Boston University Terriers 83 112 195
15 Brown University Brown University Bears 93 105 198
16 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 105 101 206
17 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 125 97 222
18 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 129 99 228
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 8 1 4 3 12 1 1 1 9 40 Morgan Kiss '15
Natalya Doris '17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 12 13 1 2 10 4 2 5 4 53 Rachel Bryer '17 [1-9]
Fiona Christie '17 [1-6]
Danielle Arpino '15 [7-9]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 9 13 1 1 3 14 7 16 65 Nikole Barnes '17
Savannah Kuntz '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 17 10 6 3 11 5 4 10 68 Lily Katz '17
Sarah Placek '18
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 10 12 8 4 5 6 10 15 1 71 Jennifer Borshoff '15 [1-9]
Laura Lee '18 [1-6, 9]
Noelle Crough '18 [7-8]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 14 4 2 14 16 2 3 3 15 73 Sarah Williams '16
Sophia Diserio '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 5 11 9 10 15 7 6 16 3 82 Marissa Golison '16 [1-9]
Rachel Ryan '15 [1-6]
Natasha Skaalrud '16 [7-9]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 16 12 11 2 14 13 9 2 83 Hannah Polster '17
Meri Harrington '18
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 13 2 7 8 6 16 8 10 14 84 Melany Johnson '15
Brianna Green '16
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 7 18 5 7 8 5 11 13 12 86 Liz Dubovik '15 [1-9]
Alix Israel '15 [1-8]
Eliza Garry '17 [9]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 17 6 3 5 14 9 12 6 RAF 91 Megan Yeigh '16
Lilla Salvesen '18
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 3 18 13 13 18 9 8 5 93 Johanna Kincaid '15 [1-4]
Kelly Mcglynn '15 [5-9]
Nicole Quattrocchi '15 [1-4]
Olivia Lord '17 [5-8]
Johanna Kincaid '15 [9]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 16 7 17 12 4 12 7 12 8 95 Courtney Koos '16
Frances Jimenez '16
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 15 6 15 7 8 17 17 11 99 Hannah Mcnomee '16 [1-9]
Jennifer Wilson '15 [1-6, 9]
Kia Olsson '18 [7-8]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 15 10 14 9 DSQ 10 15 2 7 101 Chloe Lepert '15
Jorlyn Le Garrec '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen RAF 5 11 17 17 15 4 11 6 105 Liana Folger '15 [1-9]
Erica Oosterhoff '18 [1-8]
Erin Condon '17 [9]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 9 8 16 18 9 13 16 DSQ 17 125 Elise Gehling '17
Lindsay Martinez '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 11 14 15 16 11 17 18 14 13 129 Hannah Hughes '17 [1-9]
Michelle Katz '18 [1-6]
Molly Hanson '17 [7-9]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 7 6 6 1 7 10 2 4 6 49 Julia Lambert '18
Yuki Yoshiyasu '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 17 8 3 2 3 2 1 6 8 50 Rosalind Lesh '16
Elizabeth Zhang '16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 2 12 10 13 1 9 3 2 54 Dana Rohde '18 [1-4]
Devon Rohde '15 [5-9]
Jennifer Lane '15 [1-4]
Hannah Herring '18 [5-9]
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 8 1 OCS 15 2 4 7 2 1 59 Casey Klingler '18
Katherine Gaumond '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 3 9 3 17 3 16 7 4 66 Carolyn Smith '17
Julia Monro '17
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 11 17 2 7 14 12 3 1 3 70 Amina Brown '17
Lauren Jones '15
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 9 7 8 9 14 11 5 15 79 India Johnstone '18
Isabel Strachan '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 9 13 OCS 4 4 5 8 10 7 79 Lizzy Hamilton '15
Jade Willey '17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 14 18 5 14 1 DNF 12 8 5 96 Sarah Hermus '18 [1-8]
Mackenzie Needham '15 [9]
Sarah Leonard '17 [1-8]
Nellie Hamilton '16 [9]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 15 10 15 12 12 6 4 9 14 97 Victoria Mcgruer '17
Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 12 4 4 5 16 13 17 16 12 99 Emma Ferris '15
Amelia Winn '18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 18 12 1 9 10 9 18 14 10 101 Christine Moloney '17 [1-9]
Sarah Warren '18 [1-8]
Erin Condon '17 [9]
Eckerd College Eckerd College Tritons 5 5 11 16 6 8 15 DNF 17 102 Anna Huebschmann '18
Heidi Carlson '16
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 10 11 14 17 15 11 6 11 9 104 Margaret Kilvert '18
Hope Wilson '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 16 7 8 6 5 16 13 15 OCS 105 Lindsey Baab '18 [1-9]
Haley Carter '17 [1-4]
Ragna Eide '16 [5-9]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 15 16 11 11 7 10 17 16 106 Charlotte List '18 [1-4]
Emilia Clementi '18 [5-9]
Alexandra Maurillo '18 [1-4]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 13 14 10 13 18 15 5 13 11 112 Lindsey Kennett '15 [1-9]
Margaret Swanson '16 [1-4]
Anna Booras '16 [5-9]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 16 13 18 8 17 14 12 13 117 Gillian Boehringer '18 [1-9]
Julie Barbera '17 [1-4]
Lindsay Gimple '17 [5-9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers113355779
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears2218181616141412
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears3355779911
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears141412121010886
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels44221818161614
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red557799111113
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green664422181816
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons77991111131315
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials8866442218
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen9911111313151517
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers10108866442
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1515171711335
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies11111313151517171
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams16161414121210108
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1212101088664
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal131315151717113
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts17171133557
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs181816161414121210

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2244668810
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears1117171515131311
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears446688101012
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears1313111199775
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels33111717151513
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red66881010121214
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green553311171715
Eckerd CollegeEckerd College Tritons8810101212141416
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials7755331117
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen101012121414161618
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers997755331
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1616181822446
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies12121414161618182
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams151513131111997
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks11119977553
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal141416161818224
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts18182244668
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs17171515131311119
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston University Boston University Hannah Polster '17 Meri Harrington '18
Terriers Lindsey Kennett '15 [1-9] Margaret Swanson '16 [1-4]
Anna Booras '16 [5-9]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Courtney Koos '16 Frances Jimenez '16
Polar Bears Lizzy Hamilton '15 Jade Willey '17
Brown University Brown University Johanna Kincaid '15 [1-4]
Kelly Mcglynn '15 [5-9]		 Nicole Quattrocchi '15 [1-4]
Olivia Lord '17 [5-8]
Johanna Kincaid '15 [9]
Bears Lindsey Baab '18 [1-9] Haley Carter '17 [1-4]
Ragna Eide '16 [5-9]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Liz Dubovik '15 [1-9] Alix Israel '15 [1-8]
Eliza Garry '17 [9]
Camels Charlotte List '18 [1-4]
Emilia Clementi '18 [5-9]		 Alexandra Maurillo '18 [1-4]
Cornell University Cornell University Jennifer Borshoff '15 [1-9] Laura Lee '18 [1-6, 9]
Noelle Crough '18 [7-8]
Big Red Gillian Boehringer '18 [1-9] Julie Barbera '17 [1-4]
Lindsay Gimple '17 [5-9]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Sarah Williams '16 Sophia Diserio '18
Big Green Margaret Kilvert '18 Hope Wilson '16
Eckerd College Eckerd College Melany Johnson '15 Brianna Green '16
Tritons Anna Huebschmann '18 Heidi Carlson '16
George Washington University George Washington University Hannah Mcnomee '16 [1-9] Jennifer Wilson '15 [1-6, 9]
Kia Olsson '18 [7-8]
Colonials India Johnstone '18 Isabel Strachan '18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Liana Folger '15 [1-9] Erica Oosterhoff '18 [1-8]
Erin Condon '17 [9]
Statesmen Christine Moloney '17 [1-9] Sarah Warren '18 [1-8]
Erin Condon '17 [9]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Chloe Lepert '15 Jorlyn Le Garrec '17
Engineers Rosalind Lesh '16 Elizabeth Zhang '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Elise Gehling '17 Lindsay Martinez '18
Huskies Victoria Mcgruer '17 Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Marissa Golison '16 [1-9] Rachel Ryan '15 [1-6]
Natasha Skaalrud '16 [7-9]
Seahawks Carolyn Smith '17 Julia Monro '17
Stanford University Stanford University Lily Katz '17 Sarah Placek '18
Cardinal Julia Lambert '18 Yuki Yoshiyasu '16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Nikole Barnes '17 Savannah Kuntz '17
Bears Dana Rohde '18 [1-4]
Devon Rohde '15 [5-9]		 Jennifer Lane '15 [1-4]
Hannah Herring '18 [5-9]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Hannah Hughes '17 [1-9] Michelle Katz '18 [1-6]
Molly Hanson '17 [7-9]
Midshipmen Emma Ferris '15 Amelia Winn '18
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rachel Bryer '17 [1-9] Fiona Christie '17 [1-6]
Danielle Arpino '15 [7-9]
Rams Sarah Hermus '18 [1-8]
Mackenzie Needham '15 [9]		 Sarah Leonard '17 [1-8]
Nellie Hamilton '16 [9]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Megan Yeigh '16 Lilla Salvesen '18
Catamounts Amina Brown '17 Lauren Jones '15
Yale University Yale University Morgan Kiss '15 Natalya Doris '17
Bulldogs Casey Klingler '18 Katherine Gaumond '15

Conditions — 10/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1006.3 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From W (269°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1006.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn* · W 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Connecticut College: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.24
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.16 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →