Bowdoin College '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.18 (fleet 3.01) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–20 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 12–6 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 15–10 against 15.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.82 | 1.44 | 3–4 | 5.1 | −1.38 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.35 | 2.77 | 12–6 | 10.5 | +0.42 | 0.4 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.9 | 3.06 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.0 | 2.96 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.4 | 2.77 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.1 | 2.71 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | 3.91 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 3.46 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 3.10 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.4 | 2.21 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.2 | 1.43 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.9 | 3.19 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.5 | 2.81 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.7 | 2.26 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.9 | 2.96 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.8 | 2.05 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.0 | 2.73 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.3 | 2.68 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.9 | 1.86 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.8 | 3.17 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.7 | 3.13 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.6 | 2.76 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | 2.17 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 6.9 | 3.02 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.4 | 2.60 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.8 | 2.06 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.1 | 2.33 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.8 | 2.27 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 3.37 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.0 | 2.13 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 2.80 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.0 | 2.23 |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.8 | 1.92 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.6 | 2.84 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.9 | 2.77 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.2 | 2.54 |
| Bowdoin Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.9 | 2.04 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.7 | 1.20 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.2 | 2.63 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 2.13 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.6 | 1.71 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.7 | 2.51 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.8 | 1.10 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
