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Toni Deutsch Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 96 50 146
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 70 84 154
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 90 68 158
4 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 93 90 183
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 80 105 185
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 96 94 190
7 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 82 117 199
8 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 91 116 207
9 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 124 83 207
10 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 95 115 210
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 132 103 235
12 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 144 99 243
13 Boston University Boston University Terriers 89 171 260
14 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 182 178 360
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 4 1 1 12 2 6 4 7 2 3 9 2 12 70 Rosalind Lesh '16 [1-14]
Elizabeth Zhang '16 [1-3, 6-14]
Jamila Smith-Dell '16 [4-5]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 9 7 2 2 1 7 3 4 10 5 13 9 7 80 Courtney Koos '16
Frances Jimenez '16
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 8 11 5 4 3 9 2 2 11 7 5 7 5 82 Abby Preston '15
Breanne Baldino '16
Boston University Boston University Terriers 9 1 3 12 5 6 11 9 10 9 1 4 1 8 89 Hannah Polster '17
Meredith Harrington '18
Brown University Brown University Bears 8 3 2 6 8 10 4 6 14 6 12 7 3 1 90 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 [1-14]
Olivia Lord '17 [1-10]
Katherine Sudol '16 [11-14]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4 7 8 14 1 8 10 1 12 1 9 2 4 10 91 Liz Dubovik '15
Alix Israel '15
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 13 2 4 4 6 12 1 7 9 3 11 12 5 4 93 Megan Yeigh '16
Brittney Manning '18
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 5 10 9 3 4 5 12 6 14 14 3 6 2 95 Casey Klingler '18
Natalya Doris '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 6 BKD 5 3 13 9 8 5 11 4 6 8 8 3 96 Kayla Ellis '16
Jennifer Lane '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 12 12 9 11 9 5 3 8 1 5 2 1 12 6 96 Elise Gehling '17
Jacqueline Berlin '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson DSQ 11 6 7 11 7 12 11 3 7 4 6 11 13 124 Taylor Ladd '18
Kristina Jakobson '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10 10 13 8 7 13 2 10 13 8 8 11 10 9 132 Kate Shaner '16
Julia Fuller '17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 7 6 12 10 10 11 13 13 5 13 10 10 13 11 144 Mackenzie Needham '15
Emily Gaylord '17
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 11 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 8 12 13 14 14 14 182 Priscilla Stoll '15
Paige Mentuck '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 1 2 7 4 8 1 1 2 2 3 2 8 6 50 Dana Rohde '18
Savannah Kuntz '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 5 1 1 1 4 14 3 7 3 12 6 4 5 68 Johanna Kincaid '15
Nicole Quattrocchi '15
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 8 4 5 3 6 7 2 11 5 10 7 12 2 83 Sophie Bermudez '16
Ashleigh Inglis '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 6 2 7 8 6 12 9 6 5 4 1 3 3 12 84 Laura Dunphy '15 [1-14]
Kayla Ngan '15 [1-6, 9-14]
Jamila Smith-Dell '16 [7-8]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 4 3 12 3 7 3 11 5 3 1 11 9 11 7 90 Amina Brown '17
Lauren Jones '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 7 4 13 4 5 2 4 9 8 6 5 11 6 10 94 Victoria Mcgruer '17
Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 5 9 3 2 10 10 6 8 6 9 9 5 14 3 99 Christina Lewis '16 [1-6]
Sarah Hermus '18 [7-14]
Molly Lucyk '16 [1-6]
Sarah Leonard '17 [7-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 9 6 10 6 2 11 13 12 9 10 6 4 1 4 103 Kate Levinson '15
Emily Lynn '15
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 8 10 6 9 9 7 3 7 4 12 4 10 5 11 105 Mary Paz '17
Julia Rew '16
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs DSQ 11 9 11 12 5 2 4 13 7 2 13 10 1 115 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18
Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 11 13 8 12 11 1 5 13 1 11 7 8 2 13 116 Alexandra Romagnoli '15 [1-5, 11-12]
Rebecca Quirke '17 [6-10, 13-14]
Serena Cipullo '17 [1-5, 11-12]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 10 7 5 10 8 9 8 10 12 8 14 1 7 8 117 Janel Decurtis '18
Jaye Fahey '15
Boston University Boston University Terriers 13 12 11 13 DNF DNS 10 11 10 13 13 12 9 14 171 Lindsey Kennett '15 [1-10]
Anna Booras '16 [11-14]
Hannah Callahan '16 [1-10]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 14 14 14 8 14 13 9 178 Emily Casella '17
Leah Saunders '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers11223344556677
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears221114141313121211111010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears33445566778899
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears1111121213131414112233
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels44332211141413131212
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson556677889910101111
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers7788991010111112121313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers6655443322111414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies88776655443322
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams12121111101099887766
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks991010111112121313141411
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1010998877665544
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts131314141122334455
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs141413131212111110109988

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers11223344556677
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears221114141313121211111010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears33445566778899
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears1111121213131414112233
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels44332211141413131212
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson556677889910101111
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers7788991010111112121313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers6655443322111414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies88776655443322
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams12121111101099887766
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks991010111112121313141411
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1010998877665544
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts131314141122334455
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs141413131212111110109988
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston University Boston University Hannah Polster '17 Meredith Harrington '18
Terriers Lindsey Kennett '15 [1-10]
Anna Booras '16 [11-14]		 Hannah Callahan '16 [1-10]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Courtney Koos '16 Frances Jimenez '16
Polar Bears Mary Paz '17 Julia Rew '16
Brown University Brown University Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 [1-14] Olivia Lord '17 [1-10]
Katherine Sudol '16 [11-14]
Bears Johanna Kincaid '15 Nicole Quattrocchi '15
Connecticut College Connecticut College Liz Dubovik '15 Alix Israel '15
Camels Alexandra Romagnoli '15 [1-5, 11-12]
Rebecca Quirke '17 [6-10, 13-14]		 Serena Cipullo '17 [1-5, 11-12]
Harvard University Harvard University Taylor Ladd '18 Kristina Jakobson '16
Crimson Sophie Bermudez '16 Ashleigh Inglis '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Rosalind Lesh '16 [1-14] Elizabeth Zhang '16 [1-3, 6-14]
Jamila Smith-Dell '16 [4-5]
Engineers Laura Dunphy '15 [1-14] Kayla Ngan '15 [1-6, 9-14]
Jamila Smith-Dell '16 [7-8]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Priscilla Stoll '15 Paige Mentuck '18
Buccaneers Emily Casella '17 Leah Saunders '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Elise Gehling '17 Jacqueline Berlin '19
Huskies Victoria Mcgruer '17 Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Abby Preston '15 Breanne Baldino '16
Hawks Janel Decurtis '18 Jaye Fahey '15
Tufts University Tufts University Kate Shaner '16 Julia Fuller '17
Jumbos Kate Levinson '15 Emily Lynn '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Kayla Ellis '16 Jennifer Lane '15
Bears Dana Rohde '18 Savannah Kuntz '17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Mackenzie Needham '15 Emily Gaylord '17
Rams Christina Lewis '16 [1-6]
Sarah Hermus '18 [7-14]		 Molly Lucyk '16 [1-6]
Sarah Leonard '17 [7-14]
University of Vermont University of Vermont Megan Yeigh '16 Brittney Manning '18
Catamounts Amina Brown '17 Lauren Jones '15
Yale University Yale University Casey Klingler '18 Natalya Doris '17
Bulldogs Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17

Conditions — 09/13/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From E (86°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1022.8 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 15 kn · NW 10 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →