Boston University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 30.01 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.089 rating points from 140 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.88 (fleet 1.21) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–13 (13%) as crew 11–20 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | — | 10–5 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 1–15 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 2–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 13–33 against 9.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | crew | 2.89 | 3.83 | 10–5 | 7.3 | +0.94 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | crew | 2.08 | 1.82 | 1–15 | 1.3 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2013-11-09 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 1.04 | 2.05 | 2–13 | 0.8 | +1.01 | 1.0 | 20% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 7.2 | — |
| Southern 7 on Salt Pond | Crew | A | 6 | 3.5 | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 11.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.0 | 0.50 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 12.4 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Crew | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.7 | 0.93 |
| 58th Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.3 | 1.68 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Crew | A | 8 | 10.0 | — |
| TR Invite | Crew | TR | 20 | 15% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 7.6 | — |
| Central Series 3 | Crew | A | 6 | 5.7 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 13.8 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Lark Invitational, Central Series 1 | Crew | A | 10 | 9.8 | — |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Crew | A | 6 | 5.3 | — |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Crew | A | 11 | 5.4 | — |
| Central Series 6 | Crew | B | 4 | 7.5 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 18.9 | -0.73 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| 68th Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 9.3 | — |
| Spring 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 18 | 8.2 | — |
| ICSA Women's Semi-Final Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.0 | 2.80 |
| ICSA Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.9 | 2.20 |
| ICSA/Gill Coed Dinghy Nationals | Crew | A | 8 | 10.2 | — |
| Fall 2008 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 17 | 10.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
