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The Mike Horn Trophy

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Boston College Boston College Eagles 13–2
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 12–3
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 10–5
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 7–8
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 3–12
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,064 team race matches sailed before 2014-11-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 45 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.477 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 54% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Boston College
Eagles		19.14Ryan Schmitz / Kaitlin Driscoll 3.06
Domenic Bove / Fiona Walsh 2.99
Allyson Donahue / Emily Schalka 2.98		81%13–2 (87%)+0.8
2Tufts University
Jumbos		57.63
school +0.06		Rolfe Glover / Leah Fletcher 2.83
Casey Gowrie / Sadie Woolf 2.61
Kate Shaner / Julia Fuller		46%12–3 (80%)+5.0
3Boston University
Terriers		47.70
school −0.10		Nicholas Arabia / Katherine Bienkowski 2.62
Hannah Polster / Anna Booras 2.89
Reed Lorimer / Lily Lichtenstein 2.16		48%10–5 (67%)+2.7
4Brown University
Bears		28.46
school +0.48		Timothy Harding / Olivia Lord 2.92
Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick / Katherine Sudol
Reid Secondo / Elizabeth Sturr 1.84		67%7–8 (47%)−3.0
5Harvard University
Crimson		37.78
school −0.23, home +0.32		Sophie Bermudez / Ashleigh Inglis 2.65
Taylor Ladd / Kristina Jakobson
Bennett Capozzi / Cara Kennedy Cuomo 2.52		50%3–12 (20%)−4.5
6Northeastern University
Huskies		65.51
school +0.17		Luke Orchardo / Alexandra Zhmakina
Stephen Fletcher / Lindsay Martinez
Camille Matile / Eleanor Grams 2.02		8%0–15 (0%)−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Tufts University7.639.4912–37.0+1.866.4<1%
3Boston University7.708.6510–57.3+0.941.99%
1Boston College9.149.5813–212.2+0.440.343%
4Brown University8.467.437–810.0−1.022.298%
5Harvard University7.785.943–127.5−1.845.4>99%
6Northeastern University5.512.510–151.2≤−3.001.7>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Rolfe GloverTufts University2.834.6912–37.0+1.866.4<1%
Casey GowrieTufts University2.614.4712–37.0+1.866.4<1%
Kate ShanerTufts University1.863.7212–37.0+1.866.4<1%
Hannah PolsterBoston University2.893.8310–57.3+0.941.99%
Ryan SchmitzBoston College3.063.5013–212.2+0.440.343%
Domenic BoveBoston College2.993.4313–212.2+0.440.343%
Allyson DonahueBoston College2.983.4213–212.2+0.440.343%
Timothy HardingBrown University2.921.907–810.0−1.022.298%
Megan Grapengeter-RudnickBrown University2.851.837–810.0−1.022.298%
Reid SecondoBrown University1.840.817–810.0−1.022.298%
Sophie BermudezHarvard University2.650.813–127.5−1.845.4>99%
Taylor LaddHarvard University2.160.323–127.5−1.845.4>99%
Bennett CapozziHarvard University2.520.673–127.5−1.845.4>99%
Luke OrchardoNortheastern University1.53-1.470–151.2≤−3.001.7>99%
Stephen FletcherNortheastern University1.12-1.880–151.2≤−3.001.7>99%
Camille MatileNortheastern University2.02-0.980–151.2≤−3.001.7>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Boston UniversityHarvard University54%
12Brown UniversityNortheastern University96%
13Boston CollegeTufts University84%
14Brown UniversityBoston University65%
15Tufts UniversityHarvard University48%upset
16Boston CollegeNortheastern University98%
17Tufts UniversityBrown University31%upset
18Boston UniversityNortheastern University92%
19Boston CollegeHarvard University81%
110Tufts UniversityNortheastern University90%
111Brown UniversityHarvard University66%
112Boston CollegeBoston University81%
113Harvard UniversityNortheastern University91%
114Tufts UniversityBoston University48%upset
115Boston CollegeBrown University67%
216Boston UniversityHarvard University48%upset
217Brown UniversityNortheastern University95%
218Tufts UniversityBoston College18%upset
219Boston UniversityBrown University32%upset
220Tufts UniversityHarvard University46%upset
221Boston CollegeNortheastern University97%
222Tufts UniversityBrown University30%upset
223Boston UniversityNortheastern University89%
224Boston CollegeHarvard University79%
225Tufts UniversityNortheastern University89%
226Brown UniversityHarvard University66%
227Boston CollegeBoston University81%
228Harvard UniversityNortheastern University90%
229Boston UniversityTufts University51%
230Boston CollegeBrown University65%
331Brown UniversityHarvard University66%
332Boston UniversityNortheastern University89%
333Boston CollegeTufts University81%
334Boston UniversityBrown University31%upset
335Tufts UniversityHarvard University46%upset
336Boston CollegeNortheastern University97%
337Tufts UniversityBoston University49%upset
338Brown UniversityNortheastern University94%
339Boston CollegeHarvard University78%
340Tufts UniversityNortheastern University88%
341Boston UniversityHarvard University46%upset
342Boston CollegeBrown University64%
343Harvard UniversityNortheastern University89%
344Tufts UniversityBrown University30%upset
345Boston UniversityBoston College20%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.EaglesJumbosTerriersBearsCrimsonHuskies
Boston College Eagles5–0✕WWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos4–1L✕WWWW
Boston University Terriers2–3LL✕LWW
Brown University Bears3–2LLW✕WW
Harvard University Crimson1–4LLLL✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.EaglesJumbosTerriersBearsCrimsonHuskies
Boston College Eagles4–1✕LWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos4–1W✕LWWW
Boston University Terriers4–1LW✕WWW
Brown University Bears2–3LLL✕WW
Harvard University Crimson1–4LLLL✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.EaglesJumbosTerriersBearsCrimsonHuskies
Boston College Eagles4–1✕WLWWW
Tufts University Jumbos4–1L✕WWWW
Boston University Terriers4–1WL✕WWW
Brown University Bears2–3LLL✕WW
Harvard University Crimson1–4LLLL✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-4-6
2 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
3 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
4 Brown University Bears 2-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 1-4-6 DNF
5 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
6 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
7 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 3-5-6
8 Boston University Terriers 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
9 Boston College Eagles 2-3-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 1-4-6
10 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 1-5-6
11 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-4-5
12 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
13 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 1-5-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
15 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 4-5-6
16 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
17 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
18 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
19 Boston University Terriers 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
20 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
21 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
22 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-5 def. Brown University Bears 1-4-6
23 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
24 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-5-6
25 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
26 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
27 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
28 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 1-5-6
29 Boston University Terriers 1-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-5-6
30 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 4-5-6
31 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
32 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
33 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
34 Boston University Terriers 1-4-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-3-6
35 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
36 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
37 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-5 def. Boston University Terriers 1-4-6
38 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
39 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
40 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-5-6
41 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
42 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
43 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
44 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
45 Boston University Terriers 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6

Conditions — 11/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 34°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From WSW (251°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1013.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →