Boston College '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 70.30 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 21 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.27 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 28 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.08 (fleet 2.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 55–21 (72%) as crew 8–3 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 13–2 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 12–9 | 0–1 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 9–4 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 11–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (69 matches) the record is 51–18 against 48.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | crew | 4.22 | 4.09 | 8–2 | 8.2 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2015-03-28 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.99 | 3.86 | 9–1 | 8.0 | +0.88 | 0.6 | 37% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.99 | 3.43 | 13–2 | 12.2 | +0.44 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.05 | 1.83 | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.22 | 0.9 | 95% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.86 | 3.24 | 11–4 | 10.1 | +0.38 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2013-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 2.81 | 3.29 | 9–4 | 8.0 | +0.48 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.8 | 2.36 |
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.2 | 2.85 |
| Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 3.15 |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.1 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 4.20 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.1 | 3.08 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.4 | 2.50 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 1.5 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.5 | 3.48 |
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.6 | 3.56 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.2 | 2.50 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Moody | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.3 | 3.38 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.7 | 3.72 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.1 | 2.66 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | A | 7 | 7.6 | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | B | 8 | 4.9 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 3.75 |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.8 | 3.35 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 100% | — |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 3.17 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 3.61 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 3.02 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.0 | 2.77 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 6 | 10.8 | 2.69 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 7.8 | 2.46 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.5 | 0.25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
