33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta

HostMIT
Date03/29/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/NC Firefly
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–4
2	Tufts University	Jumbos	16–6
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–7
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	15–7
5	Brown University	Bears	13–9
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–9
7	Boston College	Eagles	11–11
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	10–12
9	Harvard University	Crimson	14–8
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	12–10
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	10–12
12	Boston University	Terriers	7–15
13	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	7–15
14	Connecticut College	Camels	6–16
15	University of Rhode Island	Rams	5–17
16	University of Michigan	Wolverines	4–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,109 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 128 of 176 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.556 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.02 ± 0.16: a typical event, more orderly than 40% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	2	12.24 school +0.28	Mateo Vargas / Tally Buckstaff 3.94 Kevin Laube / Yuri Namikawa 4.20 Oliver Toole / Michelle Catania 3.77 9–3 Oliver Toole / Nicolette Obel 3.79 9–1	82%	18–4 (82%)	−0.1
2	Tufts University Jumbos	10	10.42 school +0.06	William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 3.82 David Liebenberg / Kathleen Kwasniak 3.12 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 3.38	46%	16–6 (73%)	+5.8
3	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.49 school +0.07	Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 4.46 Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry 3.98 Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 3.96 13–5 Christopher Segerblom / Sarah Smith 3.77 2–2	86%	15–7 (68%)	−3.9
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	10.87 school −0.32	Matthew Wefer / Avery Plough 4.04 Deirdre Lambert / Nathaniel Greason 3.75 Scott Houck / Julia Mckown 3.33 10–5 Evan Read / Abigail Rohman 3.31 5–2	60%	15–7 (68%)	+1.9
5	Brown University Bears	4	10.89 school +0.35	Judge Ryan / Jessica O'Dell 3.48 12–9 Tyler Rice / Helen Lord 3.41 12–9 Lucas Adams / Louisa Chafee 3.67 10–8 Pearson Potts / Louisa Chafee 3.35 3–1 Tyler Rice / Jessica O'Dell 3.43 1–0 Lucas Adams / Helen Lord 3.59 1–0	58%	13–9 (59%)	+0.2
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	10.67 school +0.11	William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 3.84 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.33 Connor Needham / Samantha Bobo 3.36	56%	13–9 (59%)	+0.7
7	Boston College Eagles	7	10.73	Raul Rios / Shelby Hamilton 3.82 10–7 Erika Reineke / Katherine Wysocki 3.86 6–3 William Bailey / Elizabeth Barnard 3.62 6–3 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 3.90 4–3 Harry Koeppel / Katherine Wysocki 3.12 4–3 Domenic Bove / Katja Sertl 3.05 1–5 Harry Koeppel / Isabelle Salvaterra 3.18 1–5 Maxwell Simmons / Riley Calhoun 3.28 1–4	54%	11–11 (50%)	−0.8
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	13	9.91 school −0.20	Michael Zonnenberg / Bridget Murphy 3.58 6–12 Michael Booker / Lauren Jones 3.23 9–6 Nate Jermain / Megan Mackinnon 3.31 5–7 Jordan Factor / Catherine Mitchell 3.23 5–5 Jordan Factor / Lauren Jones 3.39 0–4 Nate Jermain / Lauren Jones 3.28 1–2 Nate Jermain / Bridget Murphy 3.30 3–0 Jordan Factor / Bridget Murphy 3.41 1–0	38%	10–12 (45%)	+1.7
9	Harvard University Crimson	6	10.26 school −0.29	Gram Slattery / Julia Lord 3.26 Michael Drumm / Isabel Ruane 3.44 Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 3.79	56%	14–8 (64%)	+1.8
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	8	10.01 school +0.58	Jacob La Dow / Shelby Jacobs 3.24 Alexander Curtiss / Kaitlyn Noreen 3.23 7–7 Ian Liberty / Rachel Ryan 3.06 6–7 Thomas Galster / Rachel Ryan 2.74 6–3 Alexander Curtiss / John Boot 3.16 5–3	49%	12–10 (55%)	+1.2
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	11	9.79 home +0.36	David Alfonso / Iris Xu 3.42 Alexander Stewart / Paige Omura 3.06 Joseph Paggi / Christopher Ford 2.85	46%	10–12 (45%)	−0.2
12	Boston University Terriers	14	9.24	Ryan Astwood / Margaret Swanson 3.28 Cameron Fraser / Erica Lush 3.07 Brendan Cook / Hannah Callahan 2.84	34%	7–15 (32%)	−0.5
13	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	12	9.76 school +0.55	Jack Mcguire / Charlotte Williamson 3.21 3–11 Michael Croteau / Jackson Bloch 2.99 3–9 Peter Edmunds / Julia Rew 2.97 3–9 Tom Peabody / Julia Rew 2.92 4–6 Jack Mcguire / Jackson Bloch 3.15 4–4 Michael Croteau / Charlotte Williamson 3.07 4–4 Peter Edmunds / Jackson Bloch 2.85 0–2	46%	7–15 (32%)	−3.1
14	Connecticut College Camels	9	9.89 school +0.17	Jordan Bothwick / Victoria Allen 2.83 Kevin Martland / Lea Bushnell 3.67 6–15 Bryce Kopp / David Rex 3.11 4–11 Ig Schottlaender / Grace Medley 3.28 2–4 Bryce Kopp / Grace Medley 3.39 0–1 Ig Schottlaender / Lea Bushnell 3.21 0–1	47%	6–16 (27%)	−4.3
15	University of Rhode Island Rams	15	8.73 school +0.35	Matthew Coughlin / Kaitlyn Norton 2.90 Caleb Armstrong / Elizabeth Durgin 3.19 Ian White / Courtney Bombardier 2.00 5–14 Samuel Cushing / Matthew Sola 2.65 0–3	24%	5–17 (23%)	−0.3
16	University of Michigan Wolverines	16	8.41 school +0.16	Alex Ramos / Karinne Smolenyak 3.08 Ryan Seago / Elizabeth Wallace 2.89 Christopher Cyr / Emily Gazall	18%	4–18 (18%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Tufts University	10.42	11.83	16–6	10.2	+1.42	5.7	1%
4	Dartmouth College	10.87	11.34	15–7	13.1	+0.47	0.6	25%
9	Harvard University	10.26	10.67	14–8	12.2	+0.41	0.5	28%
8	University of Vermont	9.91	10.29	10–12	8.3	+0.39	0.5	27%
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.01	10.26	12–10	10.8	+0.25	0.2	38%
6	Roger Williams University	10.67	10.84	13–9	12.3	+0.17	0.1	46%
5	Brown University	10.89	10.94	13–9	12.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
16	University of Michigan	8.41	8.40	4–18	4.1	−0.02	0.0	61%
1	Stanford University	12.24	12.22	18–4	18.1	−0.02	0.0	65%
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.79	9.75	10–12	10.2	−0.04	0.0	63%
15	University of Rhode Island	8.73	8.66	5–17	5.3	−0.07	0.0	64%
12	Boston University	9.24	9.11	7–15	7.6	−0.13	0.1	69%
7	Boston College	10.73	10.53	11–11	11.8	−0.20	0.1	75%
13	Bowdoin College	9.76	9.04	7–15	10.1	−0.71	1.6	96%
14	Connecticut College	9.89	8.86	6–16	10.3	−1.03	3.1	99%
3	Yale University	12.49	11.30	15–7	18.9	−1.19	3.6	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Haeger	Tufts University	3.82	5.23	16–6	10.2	+1.42	5.7	1%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	3.12	4.54	16–6	10.2	+1.42	5.7	1%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	3.38	4.80	16–6	10.2	+1.42	5.7	1%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	3.23	4.56	9–6	5.2	+1.33	3.6	2%
Scott Houck	Dartmouth College	3.33	4.08	10–5	7.9	+0.75	1.1	18%
William Bailey	Boston College	3.62	4.23	6–3	5.1	+0.61	0.4	37%
Matthew Wefer	Dartmouth College	4.04	4.51	15–7	13.1	+0.47	0.6	25%
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	3.75	4.22	15–7	13.1	+0.47	0.6	25%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	3.26	3.67	14–8	12.2	+0.41	0.5	28%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.44	3.85	14–8	12.2	+0.41	0.5	28%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	3.79	4.20	14–8	12.2	+0.41	0.5	28%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	3.31	3.68	9–9	7.6	+0.37	0.4	31%
Thomas Galster	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.74	3.09	6–3	5.3	+0.35	0.2	45%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.24	3.49	12–10	10.8	+0.25	0.2	38%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.23	3.48	12–10	10.8	+0.25	0.2	38%
Ian Liberty	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.06	3.24	6–7	5.5	+0.18	0.1	50%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	3.84	4.01	13–9	12.3	+0.17	0.1	46%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.33	3.50	13–9	12.3	+0.17	0.1	46%
Connor Needham	Roger Williams University	3.36	3.54	13–9	12.3	+0.17	0.1	46%
Ian White	University of Rhode Island	2.00	2.14	5–14	4.6	+0.13	0.0	50%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	3.86	3.97	10–6	9.7	+0.11	0.0	55%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.67	3.76	11–8	10.6	+0.09	0.0	53%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	3.58	3.66	6–12	5.7	+0.08	0.0	54%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	3.41	3.46	13–9	12.8	+0.05	0.0	56%
Alex Ramos	University of Michigan	3.08	3.06	4–18	4.1	−0.02	0.0	61%
Ryan Seago	University of Michigan	2.89	2.87	4–18	4.1	−0.02	0.0	61%
Christopher Cyr	University of Michigan	2.07	2.05	4–18	4.1	−0.02	0.0	61%
Mateo Vargas	Stanford University	3.94	3.92	18–4	18.1	−0.02	0.0	65%
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	4.20	4.18	18–4	18.1	−0.02	0.0	65%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	3.77	3.75	18–4	18.1	−0.02	0.0	65%
David Alfonso	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.42	3.38	10–12	10.2	−0.04	0.0	63%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.06	3.02	10–12	10.2	−0.04	0.0	63%
Joseph Paggi	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.85	2.81	10–12	10.2	−0.04	0.0	63%
Matthew Coughlin	University of Rhode Island	2.90	2.83	5–17	5.3	−0.07	0.0	64%
Raul Rios	Boston College	3.82	3.75	10–7	10.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
Jordan Factor	University of Vermont	3.23	3.14	6–9	6.3	−0.09	0.0	67%
Ryan Astwood	Boston University	3.28	3.15	7–15	7.6	−0.13	0.1	69%
Cameron Fraser	Boston University	3.07	2.93	7–15	7.6	−0.13	0.1	69%
Brendan Cook	Boston University	2.84	2.71	7–15	7.6	−0.13	0.1	69%
Evan Read	Dartmouth College	3.31	3.16	5–2	5.2	−0.15	0.0	75%
Michael Croteau	Bowdoin College	2.99	2.43	7–13	9.2	−0.56	0.9	91%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.12	2.45	5–8	6.7	−0.67	0.8	92%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.21	2.50	7–15	10.1	−0.71	1.6	96%
Maxwell Simmons	Boston College	3.28	2.53	1–4	1.6	−0.75	0.3	89%
Tom Peabody	Bowdoin College	2.92	2.09	4–6	5.7	−0.83	1.0	94%
Peter Edmunds	Bowdoin College	2.97	2.12	3–11	5.3	−0.85	1.3	95%
Kevin Martland	Connecticut College	3.67	2.67	6–15	10.0	−1.00	2.8	99%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	2.83	1.80	6–16	10.3	−1.03	3.1	99%
Ig Schottlaender	Connecticut College	3.28	2.24	2–5	3.2	−1.04	0.9	95%
Bryce Kopp	Connecticut College	3.11	2.04	4–12	7.3	−1.07	2.5	98%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	3.96	2.78	15–7	18.9	−1.19	3.6	99%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.46	3.27	15–7	18.9	−1.19	3.6	99%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	3.98	2.79	15–7	18.9	−1.19	3.6	99%
Domenic Bove	Boston College	3.05	1.83	1–5	2.2	−1.22	0.9	95%
Samuel Cushing	University of Rhode Island	2.65	-0.35	0–3	0.7	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Boston College	University of Michigan	96%
1	2	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	62%
1	3	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	94%
1	4	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	64%
1	5	Connecticut College	Boston University	65%
1	6	Dartmouth College	Brown University	48%	upset
1	7	Stanford University	Tufts University	86%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Rhode Island	74%
1	9	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
1	10	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	71%
1	11	University of Michigan	Yale University	2%	upset
1	12	Harvard University	University of Vermont	53%
1	13	Stanford University	Boston University	95%
1	14	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	69%
1	15	Tufts University	Connecticut College	60%
1	16	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	85%
1	17	Boston College	Yale University	24%	upset
1	18	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	40%	upset
1	19	Boston University	University of Michigan	71%
1	20	Brown University	Harvard University	67%
1	21	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	48%	upset
1	22	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	54%
1	23	Boston College	Tufts University	72%
1	24	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	78%
1	25	Stanford University	University of Michigan	98%
1	26	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
1	27	Yale University	Boston University	96%
1	28	University of Vermont	Brown University	34%	upset
1	29	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
1	30	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	89%
1	31	Boston College	Connecticut College	82%
1	32	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	75%
1	33	Stanford University	Yale University	43%	upset
1	34	University of Vermont	St. Mary's College of Maryland	55%
1	35	Tufts University	University of Michigan	89%
1	36	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	37	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	37%	upset
1	38	Brown University	Roger Williams University	57%
1	39	Boston College	Stanford University	29%	upset
1	40	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Bowdoin College	49%	upset
1	41	Tufts University	Yale University	11%	upset
1	42	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	77%
1	43	Connecticut College	University of Michigan	84%
1	44	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	64%
1	45	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	92%
1	46	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	63%
1	47	Boston College	Boston University	84%
1	48	Brown University	Bowdoin College	72%
1	49	Yale University	Connecticut College	94%
1	50	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	70%
1	51	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	80%
1	52	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	60%
1	53	Tufts University	Boston University	77%
1	54	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	91%
1	55	Stanford University	Connecticut College	90%
1	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	34%	upset
1	57	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	79%
1	58	University of Vermont	Boston College	27%	upset
1	59	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
1	60	Roger Williams University	Boston University	81%
1	61	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	86%
1	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Connecticut College	58%
1	63	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	92%
1	64	Yale University	Brown University	83%
1	65	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	92%
1	66	Boston College	Harvard University	65%
1	67	Tufts University	University of Vermont	62%
1	68	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	29%	upset
1	69	Boston University	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
1	70	Stanford University	Brown University	78%
1	71	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	77%
1	72	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	73	University of Michigan	Harvard University	14%	upset
1	74	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
1	75	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	56%
1	76	Brown University	Boston College	52%
1	77	Dartmouth College	Boston University	83%
1	78	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	97%
1	79	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	89%
1	80	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	48%	upset
1	81	Harvard University	Tufts University	46%	upset
1	82	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	90%
1	83	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	74%
1	84	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	64%
1	85	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	67%
1	86	Brown University	Connecticut College	75%
1	87	University of Vermont	Yale University	9%	upset
1	88	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	65%
1	89	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	17%	upset
1	90	Boston University	Harvard University	27%	upset
1	91	University of Rhode Island	University of Michigan	56%
1	92	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	70%
1	93	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
1	94	Bowdoin College	Boston College	43%	upset
1	95	Stanford University	University of Vermont	91%
1	96	Yale University	Roger Williams University	86%
1	97	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Michigan	79%
1	98	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	61%
1	99	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	25%	upset
1	100	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	51%
1	101	Brown University	Boston University	80%
1	102	Yale University	Harvard University	91%
1	103	Roger Williams University	Boston College	76%
1	104	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	80%
1	105	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
1	106	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	42%	upset
1	107	Brown University	University of Michigan	92%
1	108	Harvard University	Connecticut College	60%
1	109	Yale University	Dartmouth College	84%
1	110	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	70%
1	111	University of Vermont	Boston University	58%
1	112	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	St. Mary's College of Maryland	49%	upset
1	113	Tufts University	Brown University	37%	upset
1	114	Harvard University	Stanford University	12%	upset
1	115	Yale University	Bowdoin College	94%
1	116	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	74%
1	117	Dartmouth College	Boston College	79%
1	118	University of Vermont	University of Michigan	75%
1	119	Boston University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	36%	upset
1	120	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	97%
2	121	Yale University	Brown University	83%
2	122	Tufts University	Boston College	28%	upset
2	123	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	56%
2	127	Stanford University	University of Vermont	91%
2	128	Tufts University	Yale University	11%	upset
2	129	Brown University	Dartmouth College	51%
2	133	Boston College	University of Vermont	73%
2	134	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	83%
2	135	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	38%	upset
2	139	Yale University	University of Vermont	91%
2	140	Roger Williams University	Brown University	43%	upset
2	141	Stanford University	Boston College	71%
2	145	University of Vermont	Dartmouth College	29%	upset
2	146	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
2	147	Yale University	Boston College	77%
2	151	Stanford University	Brown University	79%
2	152	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	63%
2	153	Dartmouth College	Boston College	80%
2	157	Tufts University	Brown University	37%	upset
2	158	Stanford University	Yale University	43%	upset
2	159	Roger Williams University	Boston College	75%
2	163	Brown University	University of Vermont	66%
2	164	Yale University	Dartmouth College	84%
2	165	Stanford University	Tufts University	86%
2	169	Brown University	Boston College	52%
2	170	Yale University	Roger Williams University	87%
2	171	Tufts University	University of Vermont	62%
2	175	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	21%	upset
3	124	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	48%	upset
3	125	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Bowdoin College	49%	upset
3	126	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	37%	upset
3	130	Harvard University	University of Michigan	86%
3	131	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	51%
3	132	Connecticut College	Boston University	65%
3	136	University of Michigan	Bowdoin College	22%	upset
3	137	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	82%
3	138	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston University	64%
3	142	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	79%
3	143	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	24%	upset
3	144	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	39%	upset
3	148	University of Michigan	Boston University	32%	upset
3	149	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Rhode Island	74%
3	150	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	55%
3	154	Harvard University	Connecticut College	59%
3	155	University of Rhode Island	University of Michigan	56%
3	156	Boston University	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
3	160	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Connecticut College	57%
3	161	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	61%
3	162	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	74%
3	166	Connecticut College	University of Michigan	82%
3	167	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	63%
3	168	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
3	172	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	48%	upset
3	173	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	74%
3	174	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Michigan	78%
3	176	Harvard University	Boston University	73%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Jumbos	Bulldogs	Green	Bears	Hawks	Eagles	Catamounts	Crimson	Seahawks	Engineers	Terriers	Bears	Camels	Rams	Wolverines
Stanford University Cardinal	12–3	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	10–5	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	10–5	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	12–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	10–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	10–5	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	10–5	W	W	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	9–6	L	L	W	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–7	W	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–9	L	W	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W
Boston University Terriers	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–13	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Jumbos	Bulldogs	Green	Bears	Hawks	Eagles	Catamounts
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L
Brown University Bears	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Seahawks	Engineers	Terriers	Bears	Camels	Rams	Wolverines
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	1–6	L	L	L	✕	W	L	L	L
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
Connecticut College Camels	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–4	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
2	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
3	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
4	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
5	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
6	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
7	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
8	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
9	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
10	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
11	Wolverines	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
12	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
13	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
14	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
15	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
16	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
17	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
18	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
19	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
20	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
21	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
22	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
23	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
24	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
25	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
26	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
27	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
28	Catamounts	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
29	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
30	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
31	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
32	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
33	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
34	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
35	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
36	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
37	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
38	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
39	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
40	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
41	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
42	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
43	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
44	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
45	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
46	Hawks	3-4-6	def.	Seahawks	1-2-5 DSQ
47	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
48	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
49	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
50	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
51	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Wolverines	2-4-5
52	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
53	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
54	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
56	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
57	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Wolverines	2-5-6
58	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
59	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
60	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
61	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
62	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
63	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
65	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
66	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
67	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
68	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
69	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
70	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
71	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
72	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
73	Wolverines	2-4-6	def.	Crimson	1-3-5 DSQ
74	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
75	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
76	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
77	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
78	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
79	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
80	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
81	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
82	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
83	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
84	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
85	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
86	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
87	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
88	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
89	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
90	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
91	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
92	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
93	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
94	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
95	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
96	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
97	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
98	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
99	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
100	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
101	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
102	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
103	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
104	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
105	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
106	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
107	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
108	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
109	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
110	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
111	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
112	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
113	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
114	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
115	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
116	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
117	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
118	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
119	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
120	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
121	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
122	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
123	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
127	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
128	Jumbos	2-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-3-6 DSQ
129	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
133	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
134	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
135	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
139	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
140	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
141	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
145	Catamounts	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
146	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
147	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
151	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
152	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
153	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
157	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
158	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
159	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6 DNF
163	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
164	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
165	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
169	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
170	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
171	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
175	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
124	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
125	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
126	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
130	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
131	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
132	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
136	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
137	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
138	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
142	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
143	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
144	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
148	Wolverines	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
149	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
150	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
154	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
155	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Wolverines	1-4-6
156	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
160	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
161	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
162	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
166	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Wolverines	2-3-6
167	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
168	Crimson	3-4-5	def.	Seahawks	1-2-6 DSQ
172	Polar Bears	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
173	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
174	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
176	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Kevin Laube '14 Mateo Vargas '14 Oliver Toole '14	Yuri Namikawa '14 Tally Buckstaff '14 Nicolette Obel '17 Michelle Catania '16
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14	Sam Madden '15 Kathleen Kwasniak '14 Paula Grasberger '14
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17	Charlotte Belling '16 Sarah Smith '15 Katherine Gaumond '15 Meredith Megarry '17
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Deirdre Lambert '15 Evan Read '16 Matthew Wefer '14 Scott Houck '15	Nathaniel Greason '17 Abigail Rohman '16 Avery Plough '14 Julia Mckown '17
Brown University	Bears	Judge Ryan '14 Lucas Adams '15 Pearson Potts '16 Tyler Rice '14	Jessica O'Dell '17 Louisa Chafee '14 Helen Lord '14
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Needham '14 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Samantha Bobo '15 Wendy Reuss '15 Breanne Baldino '16
Boston College	Eagles	Domenic Bove '15 Erika Reineke '17 Harry Koeppel '17 Maxwell Simmons '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Katja Sertl '16 Katherine Wysocki '15 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Isabelle Salvaterra '14 Riley Calhoun '16 Shelby Hamilton '14
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Jordan Factor '14 Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15 Nate Jermain '15	Catherine Mitchell '14 Lauren Jones '15 Bridget Murphy '15 Megan Mackinnon '17
Harvard University	Crimson	Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Michael Drumm '15	Jacob Bradt '16 Julia Lord '17 Isabel Ruane '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Ian Liberty '14 Jacob La Dow '15 Thomas Galster '15	Kaitlyn Noreen '16 John Boot '15 Rachel Ryan '15 Shelby Jacobs '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 David Alfonso '14 Joseph Paggi '16	Paige Omura '17 Iris Xu '14 Christopher Ford '16
Boston University	Terriers	Brendan Cook '16 Cameron Fraser '14 Ryan Astwood '16	Hannah Callahan '16 Erica Lush '14 Margaret Swanson '16
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Jack Mcguire '17 Michael Croteau '15 Peter Edmunds '14 Tom Peabody '14	Charlotte Williamson '15 Jackson Bloch '15 Julia Rew '16
Connecticut College	Camels	Bryce Kopp '16 Ig Schottlaender '14 Jordan Bothwick '15 Kevin Martland '14	David Rex '14 Grace Medley '15 Lea Bushnell '15 Victoria Allen '16
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Caleb Armstrong '16 Ian White '16 Matthew Coughlin '16 Samuel Cushing '15	Elizabeth Durgin '16 Courtney Bombardier '16 Kaitlyn Norton '15 Matthew Sola '15
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Alex Ramos '15 Christopher Cyr '16 Ryan Seago '14	Karinne Smolenyak '15 Emily Gazall '16 Elizabeth Wallace '15

Conditions — 03/29/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.6 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 17.7 kn

From NE (40°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1023.1 hPa Rain0.19 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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