Roger Williams University '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.55 (fleet 3.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 72–37 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 40–24 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 2 | 24–3 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 8–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (91 matches) the record is 64–27 against 64.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.36 | 3.54 | 13–9 | 12.3 | +0.17 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 3.36 | 3.53 | 3–2 | 2.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 3.43 | 3.31 | 12–3 | 12.3 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.58 | 2.79 | 9–6 | 11.1 | −0.78 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.36 | 2.00 | 3–4 | 4.9 | −1.36 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.42 | 3.68 | 11–3 | 10.4 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2013-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 3.19 | 6.19 | 13–0 | 10.7 | ≥+3.00 | 3.6 | 7% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.0 | 3.26 |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.3 | 2.12 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.6 | 4.22 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 4.4 | — |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.0 | 2.95 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 100% | — |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 3.86 |
| Moody | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 3.87 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.2 | 3.54 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.5 | 3.30 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.2 | 3.18 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 17 | 6.5 | 3.23 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.8 | 3.62 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.6 | 3.46 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 3.36 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 3.53 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.0 | 2.62 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 18 | 15.5 | 1.60 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 10.0 | 2.29 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.0 | 2.82 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.2 | 3.04 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.9 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Guard/ Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.9 | 2.48 |
| 8th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 2.81 |
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 2.30 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Skipper | D | 20 | 10.7 | 2.09 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.0 | 2.11 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
