Ted Ferrarone Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/30/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	17–1
2	University of Vermont	Catamounts	12–5
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	9–8
4	Boston University	Terriers	8–10
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	8–10
6	University of Rhode Island	Rams	7–10
7	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–11
8	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	3–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 988 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 70 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.637 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	2	10.00 school −0.10	Gram Slattery / Sarah Pierson 2.86 Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 3.40 Michael Drumm / Richard Bergsund 3.55	70%	17–1 (94%)	+4.4
2	University of Vermont Catamounts	4	9.55 school −0.26	Michael Zonnenberg / Bridget Murphy 3.49 Jordan Factor / Sara Anibal Michael Booker / Lauren Jones 2.84	61%	12–5 (71%)	+1.7
3	Stanford University Cardinal	7	8.31 school +0.12	Antoine Screve / Samantha Steele 3.65 Max Kohrman / Noelle Herring Yuki Yoshiyasu / Michelle Catania 2.10	32%	9–8 (53%)	+3.6
4	Boston University Terriers	3	9.63 school +0.17	Ian Towill / Lalitha Kumaresan 2.82 Cameron Fraser / Alejandra Higgins 3.16 Ryan Astwood / Margaret Swanson 3.41	61%	8–10 (44%)	−3.0
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	10.29 school +0.10, home +0.52	Andrew Tamblyn / Breanne Baldino 3.00 Connor Corgard / Daniel Goldman 3.02 Connor Needham / Abby Preston	75%	8–10 (44%)	−5.5
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	6	8.44 school +0.23	James Simmons / Chris Dawson 2.40 Matthew Coughlin / Elizabeth Durgin Alex Whipple / Kaitlyn Norton 3.10	33%	7–10 (41%)	+1.4
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5	8.68 school +0.19	Michael Croteau / Charlotte Williamson 3.22 Tom Peabody / Ayaka Okawa 2.83 Erin Mullins / Kimberly Dempsey 2.40	38%	6–11 (35%)	−0.4
8	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	8	8.20 school −0.24	Julia Paxton / Emma Lamontagne 2.69 Tyler Steel / Paige Conlin 3.06 Mike Carr / Andrew Haggerty 2.67	29%	3–15 (17%)	−2.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Harvard University	10.00	12.15	17–1	12.6	+2.16	5.5	1%
3	Stanford University	8.31	9.32	9–8	5.4	+1.01	2.7	4%
2	University of Vermont	9.55	10.07	12–5	10.3	+0.52	0.6	26%
6	University of Rhode Island	8.44	8.83	7–10	5.6	+0.39	0.4	31%
7	Bowdoin College	8.68	8.56	6–11	6.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
8	SUNY Maritime College	8.20	7.42	3–15	5.2	−0.78	1.2	94%
4	Boston University	9.63	8.83	8–10	11.0	−0.80	1.8	97%
4	Roger Williams University	10.29	8.83	8–10	13.5	−1.45	6.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	2.86	5.02	17–1	12.6	+2.16	5.5	1%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	3.40	5.55	17–1	12.6	+2.16	5.5	1%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.55	5.70	17–1	12.6	+2.16	5.5	1%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	3.65	4.66	9–8	5.4	+1.01	2.7	4%
Max Kohrman	Stanford University	2.07	3.08	9–8	5.4	+1.01	2.7	4%
Yuki Yoshiyasu	Stanford University	2.10	3.10	9–8	5.4	+1.01	2.7	4%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	3.49	4.02	12–5	10.3	+0.52	0.6	26%
Jordan Factor	University of Vermont	3.55	4.07	12–5	10.3	+0.52	0.6	26%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	2.84	3.36	12–5	10.3	+0.52	0.6	26%
James Simmons	University of Rhode Island	2.40	2.79	7–10	5.6	+0.39	0.4	31%
Matthew Coughlin	University of Rhode Island	2.34	2.73	7–10	5.6	+0.39	0.4	31%
Alex Whipple	University of Rhode Island	3.10	3.49	7–10	5.6	+0.39	0.4	31%
Michael Croteau	Bowdoin College	3.22	3.09	6–11	6.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
Tom Peabody	Bowdoin College	2.83	2.71	6–11	6.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
Erin Mullins	Bowdoin College	2.40	2.27	6–11	6.4	−0.12	0.0	69%
Julia Paxton	SUNY Maritime College	2.69	1.92	3–15	5.2	−0.78	1.2	94%
Tyler Steel	SUNY Maritime College	3.06	2.28	3–15	5.2	−0.78	1.2	94%
Mike Carr	SUNY Maritime College	2.67	1.89	3–15	5.2	−0.78	1.2	94%
Ian Towill	Boston University	2.82	2.02	8–10	11.0	−0.80	1.8	97%
Cameron Fraser	Boston University	3.16	2.36	8–10	11.0	−0.80	1.8	97%
Ryan Astwood	Boston University	3.41	2.60	8–10	11.0	−0.80	1.8	97%
Andrew Tamblyn	Roger Williams University	3.00	1.54	8–10	13.5	−1.45	6.0	>99%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.02	1.57	8–10	13.5	−1.45	6.0	>99%
Connor Needham	Roger Williams University	3.68	2.23	8–10	13.5	−1.45	6.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Boston University	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
1	2	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	74%
1	3	SUNY Maritime College	Stanford University	56%
1	4	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	83%
1	5	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	16%	upset
1	6	Harvard University	Boston University	56%
1	7	University of Rhode Island	SUNY Maritime College	51%
1	8	University of Vermont	Stanford University	82%
1	9	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
1	10	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	80%
1	11	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
1	12	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	67%
1	13	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	79%
1	14	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	85%
1	15	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	29%	upset
1	16	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	11%	upset
1	17	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	83%
1	18	University of Vermont	Boston University	49%	upset
1	19	SUNY Maritime College	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
1	20	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	87%
1	21	Harvard University	University of Vermont	60%
1	22	Boston University	Stanford University	80%
1	23	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	57%
1	24	SUNY Maritime College	Roger Williams University	11%	upset
1	25	Stanford University	Harvard University	15%	upset
1	26	Bowdoin College	Boston University	28%	upset
1	27	University of Vermont	SUNY Maritime College	79%
1	28	University of Rhode Island	Stanford University	53%
2	29	Roger Williams University	Boston University	66%
2	30	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	79%
2	31	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	53%
2	32	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	25%	upset
2	33	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	83%
2	34	Harvard University	Boston University	60%
2	35	University of Rhode Island	SUNY Maritime College	57%
2	36	University of Vermont	Stanford University	76%
2	37	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	44%	upset
2	38	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	81%
2	39	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	42%	upset
2	40	University of Vermont	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
2	41	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	76%
2	42	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	86%
2	43	University of Vermont	Bowdoin College	70%
2	44	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	13%	upset
2	45	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	83%
2	46	University of Vermont	Boston University	47%	upset
2	47	Bowdoin College	SUNY Maritime College	62%
2	48	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	85%
2	49	Harvard University	University of Vermont	63%
2	50	Boston University	Stanford University	78%
2	51	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	46%	upset
2	52	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	89%
2	53	Harvard University	Stanford University	84%
2	54	Bowdoin College	Boston University	28%	upset
2	55	University of Vermont	SUNY Maritime College	79%
2	56	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	47%	upset
3	57	Roger Williams University	Boston University	65%
3	58	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	80%
3	59	Stanford University	SUNY Maritime College	56%
3	60	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	72%
3	61	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	83%
3	62	Harvard University	Boston University	61%
3	63	University of Rhode Island	SUNY Maritime College	59%
3	64	University of Vermont	Stanford University	74%
3	65	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	46%	upset
3	66	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	81%
3	67	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	44%	upset
3	68	University of Vermont	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
3	69	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	25%	upset
3	70	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	87%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Catamounts	Cardinal	Terriers	Hawks	Rams	Bears	Privateers
Harvard University Crimson	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	4–3	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W
Stanford University Cardinal	3–4	W	L	✕	L	W	L	W	L
Boston University Terriers	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–5	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	L
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	L	W	L	W	W	W	✕	L
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–4	L	L	W	L	W	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Catamounts	Cardinal	Terriers	Hawks	Rams	Bears	Privateers
Harvard University Crimson	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	5–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	3–4	L	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Catamounts	Cardinal	Terriers	Hawks	Rams	Bears	Privateers
Harvard University Crimson	4–0	✕	–	–	W	W	–	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–0	–	✕	W	–	W	W	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	2–1	–	L	✕	–	–	–	W	W
Boston University Terriers	1–3	L	–	–	✕	L	L	–	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–2	L	L	–	W	✕	–	W	–
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–1	–	L	–	W	–	✕	–	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	0–3	L	–	L	–	L	–	✕	–
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–4	L	–	L	L	–	L	–	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
2	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
3	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
4	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
5	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
6	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
7	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
8	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
9	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
10	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
12	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
13	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
14	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
15	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
16	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
17	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
18	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
19	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
21	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
22	Terriers	2-3-5 DSQ	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6 DSQ
23	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
24	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
25	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
26	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6 DSQ,DSQ
27	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
28	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
29	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
30	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
32	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
33	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
34	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
35	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
36	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
37	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
38	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
39	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
40	Catamounts	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
41	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
42	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
43	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
45	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
46	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
47	Polar Bears	3-4-5	def.	Privateers	1-2-6 DSQ
48	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
49	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
50	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
51	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
52	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
53	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
54	Polar Bears	2-3-6	def.	Terriers	1-4-5 DSQ
55	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
56	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
57	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
58	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
60	Catamounts	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
61	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
62	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
63	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
64	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
65	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
66	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
67	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
68	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
69	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
70	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Michael Drumm '15	Jacob Bradt '16 Sarah Pierson '14 Richard Bergsund '15
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Jordan Factor '14 Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15	Sara Anibal '14 Lauren Jones '15 Bridget Murphy '15
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Max Kohrman '15 Yuki Yoshiyasu '16	Samantha Steele '16 Noelle Herring '16 Michelle Catania '16
Boston University	Terriers	Cameron Fraser '14 Ian Towill '14 Ryan Astwood '16	Alejandra Higgins '13 Lalitha Kumaresan '13 Margaret Swanson '16
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Andrew Tamblyn '13 Connor Corgard '16 Connor Needham '14	Breanne Baldino '16 Daniel Goldman '13 Abby Preston '15
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Alex Whipple '15 James Simmons '13 Matthew Coughlin '16	Kaitlyn Norton '15 Chris Dawson '16 Elizabeth Durgin '16
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Erin Mullins '16 Michael Croteau '15 Tom Peabody '14	Kimberly Dempsey '14 Charlotte Williamson '15 Ayaka Okawa '14
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Julia Paxton '14 Mike Carr '15 Tyler Steel '13	Emma Lamontagne '14 Andrew Haggerty '14 Paige Conlin '14

Conditions — 03/30/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 5.9 kn

Gusts to 17.1 kn

From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1017.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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