Stanford University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 80.30 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.088 rating points from 174 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.27 (fleet 3.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–16 (59%) as crew 39–10 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 7–2 |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | — | 25–1 |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 8–0 | 7–7 |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 15–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (57 matches) the record is 47–10 against 43.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | crew | 2.84 | 1.70 | 7–2 | 7.9 | −1.14 | 0.7 | 95% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 2.93 | 5.93 | 18–0 | 14.6 | ≥+3.00 | 5.4 | 2% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | crew | 2.67 | 4.20 | 7–1 | 5.7 | +1.54 | 1.3 | 23% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | crew | 3.03 | 2.63 | 7–7 | 7.9 | −0.40 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2014-03-01 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.81 | 5.81 | 8–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 6.7 | — |
| St Francis Interconference | Crew | B | 12 | 6.2 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 5.6 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 6.7 | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 4.4 | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A | 11 | 8.6 | — |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | A | 18 | 7.9 | — |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 7.9 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 1.3 | — |
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| Long Beach Gold Invite | Crew | A | 14 | 10.1 | — |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 5.4 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 6.6 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 15 | 10.8 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.4 | 3.64 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Bryson | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.8 | 2.87 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 3.26 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.1 | 2.66 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 9.4 | 3.05 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Womens Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 1.8 | 3.17 |
| North #1 and # 2 @ Stanford | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 2.90 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 95% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | 1.90 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.5 | 2.89 |
| Fall Dinghy PCC's 3 Div | Skipper | A, C | 14 | 10.6 | 1.95 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 1.95 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.3 | 2.40 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
