| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of California at Santa Barbara | Gauchos | 7–2 |
| 3 | |
Stanford University | White | 7–2 |
| 4 |  |
Santa Barbara City College | Vaqueros | 6–3 |
| 5 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 6–3 |
| 6 |  |
University of Hawaii | Rainbows | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
University of Southern California | Trojans | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 1–8 |
| 9 |  |
University of California at Berkeley | Bears | 1–8 |
| 10 |  |
Cal Poly University S.L.O. | Mustang | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,105 team race matches sailed before 2016-02-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 34 of 45 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.532 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.74 ± 0.29: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 6% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos | 6.23 | 9.82 | 7–2 | 3.2 | +3.59 | 9.3 | <1% |
| 1 | Stanford University Cardinal | 10.11 | 13.11 | 9–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 14% |
| 4 | Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros | 6.12 | 8.97 | 6–3 | 3.2 | +2.85 | 5.6 | 1% |
| 10 | Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang | 4.62 | 4.27 | 1–8 | 1.3 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 6 | University of Hawaii Rainbows | 7.38 | 6.75 | 4–5 | 4.7 | −0.63 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 9 | University of California at Berkeley Bears | 5.14 | 4.19 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.96 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 8 | Northwestern University Wildcats | 5.15 | 4.15 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −1.00 | 0.6 | 93% |
| 3 | Stanford University White | 10.37 | 9.23 | 7–2 | 7.9 | −1.14 | 0.7 | 95% |
| 7 | University of Southern California Trojans | 8.04 | 5.80 | 3–6 | 5.5 | −2.24 | 4.3 | >99% |
| 5 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 10.49 | 8.10 | 6–3 | 8.0 | −2.39 | 3.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cardinal | Gauchos | White | Vaqueros | Monarchs | Rainbows | Trojans | Wildcats | Bears | Mustang | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal | 16–2 | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos | 7–2 | W | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| Stanford University White | 16–2 | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros | 6–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 6–3 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Hawaii Rainbows | 4–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Southern California Trojans | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| University of California at Berkeley Bears | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustang | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
White | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vaqueros | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gauchos | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Vaqueros | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mustang | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
White | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Gauchos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Vaqueros | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Mustang | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
White | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rainbows | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Gauchos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Vaqueros | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mustang | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gauchos | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
White | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Trojans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rainbows | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Gauchos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vaqueros | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
White | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustang | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Gauchos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
White | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vaqueros | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mustang | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Gauchos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rainbows | 1-5-6 |
| 32 | |
White | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustang | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Vaqueros | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Gauchos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
White | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rainbows | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Trojans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustang | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Vaqueros | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
White | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Gauchos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustang | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Vaqueros | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rainbows | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
