University of California at Berkeley '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (fleet 2.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 39–57 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 19–22 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 13–20 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 3–11 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (96 matches) the record is 39–57 against 36.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-24 | 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.47 | 3.34 | 5–9 | 3.4 | +0.87 | 1.0 | 19% |
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 1.17 | 10–7 | 12.6 | −1.17 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2018-01-27 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 2.47 | 2.07 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2017-04-30 | PCCSC Team Race Championships - Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 2.54 | -0.46 | 0–8 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| 2017-02-25 | 2017 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.53 | 3.72 | 7–10 | 3.9 | +1.19 | 2.7 | 5% |
| 2017-02-11 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 2.29 | 2.29 | 6–2 | 6.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2016-04-24 | PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 2.51 | 4.14 | 2–3 | 1.1 | +1.63 | 1.2 | 21% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 1.56 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.96 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.04 | 4.82 | 4–4 | 1.5 | +2.78 | 5.3 | 1% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
