2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race

HostStanford
Date02/24/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	15–2
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–3
3	Eckerd College	Tritons	10–7
4	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	7–10
5	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	5–9
5	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	5–9
7	University of Southern California	Trojans	7–5
8	Northwestern University	Wildcats	3–9
9	Oregon State University	Beavers	2–10
10	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,338 team race matches sailed before 2018-02-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 72 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.330 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.23 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 69% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	1	10.30 school +0.17	Sterling Henken / Elizabeth Moody 3.29 14–2 Neil Stapleton / Claire Hunt 3.53 10–2 Lucas Pierce / Robert Johnson 3.16 12–0 Christopher Weis / Samantha Obel 3.45 9–2	84%	15–2 (88%)	+0.8
2	Stanford University Cardinal	3	9.79 school +0.46, home +0.40	Nestor Cano Sostre / Olivia Gugliemini William Marshall / Cassie Obel 3.38 Jacob Rosenberg / Stephanie Houck 3.35	74%	14–3 (82%)	+1.4
3	Eckerd College Tritons	2	9.84 school +0.18	Geoffrey Nelson / Virginia Kilbourne 2.73 Andrew Schoene / Sabine Zinserling 3.49 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Delphine Carroll 3.29	77%	12–5 (71%)	−1.1
4	University of Hawaii Rainbows	6	8.04 school +0.09	Patrick Wilkinson / Danielle Ahir 2.78 6–9 Cuylar Zimmerman / Sophie Deming 2.49 4–10 Jeremy Hitchcock / Cantlen Forni 2.34 7–6 Michael Pacholski / Kelly Sojka 2.71 4–5	45%	7–10 (41%)	−0.7
5	University of California at Berkeley Bears	8	6.35 school −0.29	Andrew Solomon / Ekaterina Goncharova 2.47 Drake Hayes / Paris Sato 2.30 Henry Keenan / Kylie Fawcett 1.78	24%	5–9 (36%)	+1.6
5	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	7	6.95 school +0.42	Ben Brough / Grace Carrick 2.62 Liam Hood / Helen Payne 1.97 Alyson Crowley / Grace Vandervort 1.88	34%	5–9 (36%)	+0.2
7	University of Southern California Trojans	4	7.36 school −0.56	Nicholas Stefanoni / Mackenzie Freeman 2.85 Peter Wong / Sarah Alexander 2.59 4–4 Grace Yakutis / Melissa Schem 2.42 5–2 Grace Yakutis / Will Paulsen 2.46 2–3 Peter Wong / Lorea Mendiguren 2.56 3–1	56%	7–5 (58%)	+0.3
8	Northwestern University Wildcats	5	6.91 school +0.11	Mark Davies / Audrey Debruine 2.80 Ryder Easterlin / Zachary Herron 2.11 Noah Rosenthal / Josh Kaplan 1.79 2–7 Noah Rosenthal / Elias Passas 1.80 3–0	48%	5–7 (42%)	−0.8
9	Oregon State University Beavers	10	4.92 school +0.18	Quanah Green / Nick Drachnik 0.91 Thomas Hope / Natalie Shaw 1.77 Matthew Reynolds / Kyle Padgett 1.93	14%	2–10 (17%)	+0.4
10	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	9	5.14 school −0.28	Laura Roudebush / Maddy Kuhn 1.91 Leah Ford / Hallie Muller 1.66 Abraham Dearden / Arjun Boddu 1.74	17%	0–12 (0%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	University of California at Berkeley	6.35	7.22	5–9	3.4	+0.87	1.0	19%
2	Stanford University	9.79	10.49	14–3	12.6	+0.70	0.7	27%
1	University of California at Santa Barbara	10.30	10.75	15–2	14.2	+0.45	0.2	44%
9	Oregon State University	4.92	5.19	2–10	1.7	+0.28	0.1	53%
7	University of Southern California	7.36	7.53	7–5	6.7	+0.17	0.0	58%
5	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	6.95	7.06	5–9	4.8	+0.12	0.0	58%
4	University of Hawaii	8.04	7.74	7–10	7.7	−0.30	0.1	79%
8	Northwestern University	6.91	6.47	5–7	5.8	−0.44	0.2	84%
3	Eckerd College	9.84	9.33	12–5	13.1	−0.51	0.4	87%
10	University of California at Los Angeles	5.14	2.14	0–12	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Andrew Solomon	University of California at Berkeley	2.47	3.34	5–9	3.4	+0.87	1.0	19%
Henry Keenan	University of California at Berkeley	1.78	2.65	5–9	3.4	+0.87	1.0	19%
Nestor Cano Sostre	Stanford University	1.87	2.57	14–3	12.6	+0.70	0.7	27%
Sterling Henken	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.29	3.74	14–2	13.2	+0.45	0.2	45%
Jeremy Hitchcock	University of Hawaii	2.34	2.71	7–6	6.4	+0.37	0.1	49%
Peter Wong	University of Southern California	2.59	2.76	7–5	6.7	+0.17	0.0	58%
Ben Brough	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.62	2.74	5–9	4.8	+0.12	0.0	58%
Alyson Crowley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.88	1.99	5–9	4.8	+0.12	0.0	58%
Geoffrey Nelson	Eckerd College	2.73	2.22	12–5	13.1	−0.51	0.4	87%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	3.49	2.98	12–5	13.1	−0.51	0.4	87%
Karl Rasmus Sayre	Eckerd College	3.29	2.78	12–5	13.1	−0.51	0.4	87%
Neil Stapleton	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.53	3.01	10–2	10.6	−0.53	0.2	87%
Cuylar Zimmerman	University of Hawaii	2.49	1.95	4–10	5.0	−0.54	0.4	87%
Laura Roudebush	University of California at Los Angeles	1.91	-1.09	0–12	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%
Leah Ford	University of California at Los Angeles	1.66	-1.34	0–12	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%
Abraham Dearden	University of California at Los Angeles	1.74	-1.26	0–12	2.0	≤−3.00	3.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Northwestern University	Oregon State University	88%
1	2	University of Southern California	University of Hawaii	31%	upset
1	3	Eckerd College	Stanford University	56%
1	4	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Los Angeles	87%
1	5	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	98%
1	6	University of Hawaii	Northwestern University	75%
1	7	Eckerd College	Oregon State University	99%
1	8	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of Southern California	41%	upset
1	9	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	29%	upset
1	10	University of California at Berkeley	University of California at Los Angeles	77%
1	11	University of Hawaii	Eckerd College	12%	upset
1	12	Northwestern University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	48%	upset
1	13	University of California at Santa Barbara	Oregon State University	100%
1	14	University of Southern California	University of California at Los Angeles	90%
1	15	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	97%
1	16	Eckerd College	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	95%
1	17	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	91%
1	18	Northwestern University	University of California at Los Angeles	86%
1	19	Stanford University	Oregon State University	99%
1	20	University of California at Berkeley	University of Southern California	27%	upset
1	21	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	96%
1	22	Eckerd College	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
1	23	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	82%
1	24	University of Southern California	Northwestern University	61%
1	25	University of California at Berkeley	Oregon State University	81%
1	26	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
1	27	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	94%
1	28	Eckerd College	University of Southern California	92%
1	29	University of Hawaii	Oregon State University	96%
1	30	University of California at Berkeley	Northwestern University	36%	upset
1	31	Stanford University	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
1	32	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Southern California	94%
1	33	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Oregon State University	88%
1	34	Eckerd College	Northwestern University	95%
1	35	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	82%
1	36	Stanford University	University of Southern California	92%
1	37	Oregon State University	University of California at Los Angeles	45%	upset
1	38	University of California at Santa Barbara	Northwestern University	96%
1	39	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of Hawaii	28%	upset
1	40	Eckerd College	University of California at Berkeley	97%
1	41	University of Southern California	Oregon State University	92%
1	42	Stanford University	Northwestern University	95%
1	43	University of Hawaii	University of California at Los Angeles	95%
1	44	University of California at Santa Barbara	Eckerd College	58%
1	45	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Berkeley	64%
4	61	Northwestern University	Oregon State University	88%
4	62	University of Southern California	University of California at Los Angeles	90%
4	63	Northwestern University	University of California at Los Angeles	85%
4	64	University of Southern California	Oregon State University	92%
4	65	Oregon State University	University of California at Los Angeles	44%	upset
4	66	University of Southern California	Northwestern University	60%
4	67	University of California at Santa Barbara	Eckerd College	57%
4	68	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	82%
4	69	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	90%
4	70	Eckerd College	Stanford University	50%	upset
4	71	Eckerd College	University of Hawaii	87%
4	72	University of California at Santa Barbara	Stanford University	64%
6	46	Eckerd College	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	95%
6	47	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	91%
6	48	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	97%
6	49	University of California at Santa Barbara	Eckerd College	58%
6	50	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	36%	upset
6	51	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	82%
6	52	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	98%
6	53	Eckerd College	University of Hawaii	87%
6	54	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	95%
6	55	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	83%
6	56	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	96%
6	57	Stanford University	Eckerd College	50%	upset
6	58	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	74%
6	59	Eckerd College	University of California at Berkeley	97%
6	60	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	35%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Gauchos	Cardinal	Tritons	Rainbows	Bears	Mustang	Trojans	Wildcats	Beavers	Bruins
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	8–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	8–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	7–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	5–4	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	4–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	5–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Southern California Trojans	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Oregon State University Beavers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Gauchos	Cardinal	Tritons	Rainbows	Trojans	Wildcats	Beavers	Bruins
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–0	✕	W	W	W	–	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	1–2	L	✕	L	W	–	–	–	–
Eckerd College Tritons	2–1	L	W	✕	W	–	–	–	–
University of Hawaii Rainbows	0–3	L	L	L	✕	–	–	–	–
University of Southern California Trojans	3–0	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	2–1	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W
Oregon State University Beavers	1–2	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Gauchos	Cardinal	Tritons	Rainbows	Bears	Mustang
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Wildcats	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
2	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
3	Tritons	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
4	Mustang	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
5	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
6	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
7	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
8	Mustang	1-4-5	def.	Trojans	2-3-6
9	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
10	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
11	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
12	Wildcats	2-3-4	def.	Mustang	1-5-6
13	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
14	Trojans	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
15	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
16	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Mustang	2-3-6
17	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
18	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
20	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Trojans	3-4-6
21	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
22	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
23	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Rainbows	1-4-6
24	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
26	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
27	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustang	4-5-6
28	Tritons	1-3-6	def.	Trojans	2-4-5
29	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
30	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Wildcats	2-3-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
32	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Trojans	3-4-6
33	Mustang	1-3-6	def.	Beavers	2-4-5
34	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
35	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
36	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
37	Beavers	1-2-6 DNS	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
38	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
39	Mustang	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
40	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
41	Trojans	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
42	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
43	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
44	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
45	Mustang	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
61	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Beavers	3-4-5
62	Trojans	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
63	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
64	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
65	Beavers	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
66	Trojans	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
67	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
69	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
70	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
71	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
72	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
46	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Mustang	4-5-6
47	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
49	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
50	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Mustang	2-4-6
51	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
52	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
53	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
54	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Mustang	1-5-6
55	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
56	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Mustang	3-4-6
57	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
58	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Mustang	3-5-6
59	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
60	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Gauchos	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Christopher Weis '18 Lucas Pierce '21 Neil Stapleton '18 Sterling Henken '18	Samantha Obel '21 Robert Johnson '19 Claire Hunt '19 Elizabeth Moody '20
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jacob Rosenberg '20 Nestor Cano Sostre '20 William Marshall '19	Stephanie Houck '21 Olivia Gugliemini '19 Cassie Obel '19
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Geoffrey Nelson '18 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19	Sabine Zinserling '20 Virginia Kilbourne '20 Delphine Carroll '19
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Cuylar Zimmerman '19 Jeremy Hitchcock '17 Michael Pacholski '19 Patrick Wilkinson '20	Sophie Deming '20 Cantlen Forni '19 Kelly Sojka '19 Danielle Ahir '20
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Andrew Solomon '18 Drake Hayes '21 Henry Keenan '18	Ekaterina Goncharova '18 Paris Sato '21 Kylie Fawcett '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	Alyson Crowley '20 Ben Brough '19 Liam Hood '20	Grace Vandervort '21 Grace Carrick '18 Helen Payne '19
University of Southern California	Trojans	Grace Yakutis '20 Nicholas Stefanoni '21 Peter Wong '18	Melissa Schem '18 Will Paulsen '19 Mackenzie Freeman '18 Sarah Alexander '19 Lorea Mendiguren '20
Northwestern University	Wildcats	Mark Davies '20 Noah Rosenthal '18 Ryder Easterlin '20	Audrey Debruine '19 Josh Kaplan '19 Elias Passas '19 Zachary Herron '18
Oregon State University	Beavers	Matthew Reynolds '20 Quanah Green '18 Thomas Hope '20	Kyle Padgett '21 Nick Drachnik '20 Natalie Shaw '20
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	Abraham Dearden '20 Laura Roudebush '18 Leah Ford '19	Arjun Boddu '18 Maddy Kuhn '20 Hallie Muller '20

Conditions — 02/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 63% · Pressure 1029.0 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 32.5 kn

From WNW (283°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1029.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu