University of California at Los Angeles '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (fleet 1.40) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–29 (15%) as crew 1–15 (6%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 0–12 | 1–15 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 6–44 against 10.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-08 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.46 | 1.14 | 3–4 | 3.2 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2019-01-26 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 1.45 | -1.55 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| 2018-04-28 | Pacific Coast Team Race Championships | crew | 1.71 | -1.29 | 0–6 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2018-02-24 | 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.74 | -1.26 | 0–12 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 3.5 | >99% |
| 2018-01-27 | Gaucho Team Race | crew | 1.73 | 1.23 | 1–9 | 1.5 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2017-02-11 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.29 | 1.13 | 2–6 | 2.2 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.8 | 1.15 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.9 | 1.34 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.7 | 1.65 |
| Stoney Burke Varsity | Skipper | B | 11 | 12.0 | 1.23 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.5 | 2.01 |
| 2020 Rose Bowl - College | Skipper | A | 9 | 15.7 | 1.00 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup Varsity | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.8 | 1.36 |
| Rainier Cup Combined | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 1.55 |
| PCCSC Southern Area Designate | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.2 | 1.42 |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | 1.89 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 1.53 |
| Gaucho Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Triton Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.4 | 2.15 |
| Stoney Burke Varsity | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.9 | 2.12 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 11 | 13.1 | 0.51 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.4 | 1.69 |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 1.78 |
| Pacific Coast Team Race Championships | Crew | TR | 6 | 0% | — |
| Pacific Coast Coed Dinghy Championships | Crew | A | 4 | 10.0 | — |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.9 | 1.14 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.3 | 2.45 |
| Gaucho Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.2 | 0.99 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 7 | 10.3 | 1.60 |
| 2017 Cardinal Invite | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.8 | 2.62 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| South Designate | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.5 | 1.22 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.7 | 1.62 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.0 | 2.58 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 2.44 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.6 | 0.73 |
| Fall PCC - JV | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | 0.62 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
