2020 Rose Bowl - College

HostSouthern Cal
Date01/04/2020
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	30	34	64
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	38	36	74
3	Cornell University	Big Red	51	48	99
4	College of Charleston	Cougars	53	47	100
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	48	67	115
6	Jacksonville University	Fins	62	65	127
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	38	90	128
8	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	54	86	140
9	Boston University	Terriers	76	70	146
10	Tufts University	Jumbos	84	74	158
11	University of Southern California	Trojans	110	79	189
12	Northwestern University	Wildcats	117	83	200
13	University of California at San Diego	Tritons	133	86	219
14	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	96	137	233
15	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	133	136	269
16	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	141	128	269
17	University of Washington	Huskies	125	155	280
18	San Diego State University	Aztecs	155	126	281
19	University of North Texas	Mean Green	168	165	333
20	Arizona State University	Sun Devils	180	178	358

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas	3	1	5	7	1	5	1	2	5	30	Sean Segerblom '20 Annabelle Ayer '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	1	3	2	9	9	2	6	4	2	38	Mack Fox '20 Christina Nothacker '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	8	10	4	4	4	1	5	1	1	38	Leo Boucher '22 Ashley Wagner '20
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	4	5	8	2	2	4	7	6	10	48	Chris Kayda '23 Pyper Atkin '20
Cornell University	Big Red	2	8	7	8	7	6	4	5	4	51	Gabby Rizika '20 Adeline Sutton '21
College of Charleston	Cougars	9	2	1	1	5	DSQ	8	3	3	53	Max Mayol '23 Elizabeth Dipietro '23
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	5	9	6	6	3	8	2	7	8	54	Brock Paquin '22 Hailey Thompson '22
Jacksonville University	Fins	7	4	10	5	6	10	3	10	7	62	Telmo Basterra '21 Grace Benzal '23
Boston University	Terriers	6	7	9	3	8	7	10	13	13	76	Tyler Mowry '23 Tyler Davis '22
Tufts University	Jumbos	10	6	3	11	10	9	12	14	9	84	Wells Drayton '21 Duke Saunders '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	14	16	11	13	11	3	9	8	11	96	Liam Hood '20 Alyson Crowley '20
University of Southern California	Trojans	11	11	13	15	15	16	11	12	6	110	Grace Yakutis '20 Lauren Lopez '20
Northwestern University	Wildcats	15	14	17	12	13	11	14	9	12	117	Thomas Quinn '22 Eva Bambakidis '22
University of Washington	Huskies	12	17	12	10	14	12	13	17	18	125	Austin Hauter '21 Elizabeth Murphy '22
University of California at San Diego	Tritons	13	13	14	16	18	15	16	11	17	133	Nicholas Dorn '22 [1-9] Eleanore Mcguire-Wien '20 [1-2] Canyon Breyer '20 [3-9]
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	16	12	16	17	12	13	18	15	14	133	Aitor Iriso '21 Burleigh Charlton '23
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	18	15	15	14	17	14	15	18	15	141	Abraham Dearden '20 Hallie Muller '20
San Diego State University	Aztecs	17	18	19	18	16	18	17	16	16	155	Erik Hallback '21 Jacob Hand '21
University of North Texas	Mean Green	19	19	18	19	19	17	19	19	19	168	Meri Keskimaula '22 Brendan Frederick '21
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	20	DNF	20	20	20	19	20	20	20	180	Mary Spearman '22 [1-4] Nicholas Peters '22 [5-9] Sofiya Gaffke '22 [1-2, 7-8] Bryce Manhardt '20 [3-4] Mikaela Hatfield '21 [5-6, 9]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas	4	5	1	6	1	1	5	5	6	34	Andrew Person '21 Grace Flanagan '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	1	2	3	2	4	2	11	10	1	36	Lewis Cooper '21 Sophia Taczak '21
College of Charleston	Cougars	3	9	6	4	2	5	10	1	7	47	Patrick Eaton '21 Roxanne Snyder '23
Cornell University	Big Red	9	1	2	7	5	4	4	3	13	48	Daisy Holthus '21 Ethan Andersen '20
Jacksonville University	Fins	5	3	10	1	9	11	12	6	8	65	Andre Guaragna '21 [1-9] Caroline Bourgeois '22 [1-5] Logan Brickhouse '21 [6-9]
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	2	6	4	8	10	12	9	11	5	67	Lukas Kraak '23 Julia Roudebush '23
Boston University	Terriers	13	8	9	5	7	9	1	14	4	70	Micky Munns '23 Madeline Stull '23
Tufts University	Jumbos	12	15	7	14	6	13	2	2	3	74	Patrick Mulcahy '23 [1-2] Annika Fedde '23 [3-4] Ansgar Jordan '22 [5-9] Mallory Hood '22 [1-4, 6-8] Patrick Mulcahy '23 [5, 9]
University of Southern California	Trojans	6	4	16	15	13	7	3	4	11	79	Spencer Paulsen '21 [1-9] John Hutchison '23 [1-4, 6-9] Kai Otsmaa '21 [5]
Northwestern University	Wildcats	8	17	5	11	3	8	14	8	9	83	Ryder Easterlin '20 [1-9] Avery Zieper '22 [1-2, 6-8] Mitchell Moore '21 [3-5, 9]
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	7	13	11	16	11	3	8	15	2	86	Emi Stephanoff '21 Justin Zmina '23
University of California at San Diego	Tritons	11	11	13	9	8	10	7	7	10	86	Nigel Lipps '21 [1-9] Chieko Imai '20 [1-6] Noah Barton '23 [7-9]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	10	7	8	3	12	6	16	16	12	90	Emma Aubuchon '23 Brian Nelson '21
San Diego State University	Aztecs	15	12	12	17	17	17	6	13	17	126	James Schrady '22 Megan Mcglothlin '21
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	14	14	15	12	16	16	13	9	19	128	Gideon Burnes Heath '23 Mary Jane Howland '22
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	16	10	17	10	18	18	17	12	18	136	Keelin Davis '21 Sofia Mack '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	17	16	14	13	14	14	15	18	16	137	Tara Rogers '23 Maddie Roman '20
University of Washington	Huskies	18	18	19	19	15	15	18	19	14	155	John Kauffman '22 [1-9] Sarah Kahle '22 [1-8] Mejak Jones '21 [9]
University of North Texas	Mean Green	20	19	18	18	19	20	19	17	15	165	Marcin Kostrzewa '20 [1-2, 6] Emma Cooledge '20 [3-5, 7-9] Sara Curtis '21 [1-2, 6] Jamie Weston '22 [3-5] Marcin Kostrzewa '20 [7-9]
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	19	20	20	20	20	19	20	20	20	178	Katherine Pearson '22 [1-9] Jillian Edmonson '24 [1-2, 9] Ciara Harding '22 [3-5] Nathan Callahan '20 [6-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Arizona State University Sun Devils	39	39	3	3	77	77	74	74	72
Boston University Terriers	38	38	102	102	76	76	138	138	16
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	102	102	76	76	138	138	16	16	137
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	3	3	77	77	74	74	72	72	73
College of Charleston Cougars	77	77	74	74	72	72	73	73	47
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	47	47	291	291			37	37	39
Cornell University Big Red	76	76	138	138	16	16	137	137	27
Georgetown University Hoyas	74	74	72	72	73	73	47	47	291
Jacksonville University Fins	138	138	16	16	137	137	27	27	31
University of North Texas Mean Green	75	75	34	34	38	38	102	102	76
Northwestern University Wildcats	72	72	73	73	47	47	291	291
San Diego State University Aztecs	16	16	137	137	27	27	31	31	75
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	39	39	3	3	77	77	74
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	73	73	47	47	291	291			37
Tufts University Jumbos	137	137	27	27	31	31	75	75	34
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	27	27	31	31	75	75	34	34	38
University of California at San Diego Tritons	291	291			37	37	39	39	3
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	31	31	75	75	34	34	38	38	102
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs			37	37	39	39	3	3	77
University of Washington Huskies	34	34	38	38	102	102	76	76	138

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B
Arizona State University Sun Devils	38	38	102	102	76	76	138	138	16
Boston University Terriers	3	3	77	77	74	74	72	72	73
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	77	77	74	74	72	72	73	73	47
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	102	102	76	76	138	138	16	16	137
College of Charleston Cougars	76	76	138	138	16	16	137	137	27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	27	27	31	31	75	75	34	34	38
Cornell University Big Red	74	74	72	72	73	73	47	47	291
Georgetown University Hoyas	138	138	16	16	137	137	27	27	31
Jacksonville University Fins	72	72	73	73	47	47	291	291
University of North Texas Mean Green	37	37	39	39	3	3	77	77	74
Northwestern University Wildcats	16	16	137	137	27	27	31	31	75
San Diego State University Aztecs	73	73	47	47	291	291			37
University of Southern California Trojans	34	34	38	38	102	102	76	76	138
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	137	137	27	27	31	31	75	75	34
Tufts University Jumbos	47	47	291	291			37	37	39
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	291	291			37	37	39	39	3
University of California at San Diego Tritons	31	31	75	75	34	34	38	38	102
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos			37	37	39	39	3	3	77
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	75	75	34	34	38	38	102	102	76
University of Washington Huskies	39	39	3	3	77	77	74	74	72

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arizona State University	Mary Spearman '22 [1-4] Nicholas Peters '22 [5-9]	Sofiya Gaffke '22 [1-2, 7-8] Bryce Manhardt '20 [3-4] Mikaela Hatfield '21 [5-6, 9]
Sun Devils	Katherine Pearson '22 [1-9]	Jillian Edmonson '24 [1-2, 9] Ciara Harding '22 [3-5] Nathan Callahan '20 [6-8]
Boston University	Tyler Mowry '23	Tyler Davis '22
Terriers	Micky Munns '23	Madeline Stull '23
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Liam Hood '20	Alyson Crowley '20
Mustangs	Tara Rogers '23	Maddie Roman '20
California Maritime Academy	Brock Paquin '22	Hailey Thompson '22
Keelhaulers	Emi Stephanoff '21	Justin Zmina '23
College of Charleston	Max Mayol '23	Elizabeth Dipietro '23
Cougars	Patrick Eaton '21	Roxanne Snyder '23
Cornell University	Gabby Rizika '20	Adeline Sutton '21
Big Red	Daisy Holthus '21	Ethan Andersen '20
Georgetown University	Sean Segerblom '20	Annabelle Ayer '22
Hoyas	Andrew Person '21	Grace Flanagan '23
Jacksonville University	Telmo Basterra '21	Grace Benzal '23
Fins	Andre Guaragna '21 [1-9]	Caroline Bourgeois '22 [1-5] Logan Brickhouse '21 [6-9]
Northwestern University	Thomas Quinn '22	Eva Bambakidis '22
Wildcats	Ryder Easterlin '20 [1-9]	Avery Zieper '22 [1-2, 6-8] Mitchell Moore '21 [3-5, 9]
San Diego State University	Erik Hallback '21	Jacob Hand '21
Aztecs	James Schrady '22	Megan Mcglothlin '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Leo Boucher '22	Ashley Wagner '20
Seahawks	Lewis Cooper '21	Sophia Taczak '21
Tufts University	Wells Drayton '21	Duke Saunders '20
Jumbos	Patrick Mulcahy '23 [1-2] Annika Fedde '23 [3-4] Ansgar Jordan '22 [5-9]	Mallory Hood '22 [1-4, 6-8] Patrick Mulcahy '23 [5, 9]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Mack Fox '20	Christina Nothacker '21
Bears	Emma Aubuchon '23	Brian Nelson '21
University of California at Los Angeles	Abraham Dearden '20	Hallie Muller '20
Bruins	Gideon Burnes Heath '23	Mary Jane Howland '22
University of California at San Diego	Nicholas Dorn '22 [1-9]	Eleanore Mcguire-Wien '20 [1-2] Canyon Breyer '20 [3-9]
Tritons	Nigel Lipps '21 [1-9]	Chieko Imai '20 [1-6] Noah Barton '23 [7-9]
University of California at Santa Barbara	Chris Kayda '23	Pyper Atkin '20
Gauchos	Lukas Kraak '23	Julia Roudebush '23
University of California at Santa Cruz	Aitor Iriso '21	Burleigh Charlton '23
Banana Slugs	Keelin Davis '21	Sofia Mack '20
University of North Texas	Meri Keskimaula '22	Brendan Frederick '21
Mean Green	Marcin Kostrzewa '20 [1-2, 6] Emma Cooledge '20 [3-5, 7-9]	Sara Curtis '21 [1-2, 6] Jamie Weston '22 [3-5] Marcin Kostrzewa '20 [7-9]
University of Southern California	Grace Yakutis '20	Lauren Lopez '20
Trojans	Spencer Paulsen '21 [1-9]	John Hutchison '23 [1-4, 6-9] Kai Otsmaa '21 [5]
University of Washington	Austin Hauter '21	Elizabeth Murphy '22
Huskies	John Kauffman '22 [1-9]	Sarah Kahle '22 [1-8] Mejak Jones '21 [9]

Conditions — 01/04/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1026.5 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.8 kn

avg · max 5.7 kn

Gusts to 8.7 kn

From WNW (282°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1026.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 5 kn · SW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Southern Cal: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.00

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.20 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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