University of Southern California '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.06 (fleet 2.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–19 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 6–0 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 15–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 21–19 against 21.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-09 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 5.49 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| 2018-04-28 | Pacific Coast Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.31 | 2.08 | 3–6 | 3.2 | −0.23 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2018-02-24 | 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.42 | 2.59 | 7–5 | 6.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2018-01-27 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 2.37 | 1.90 | 5–8 | 6.1 | −0.47 | 0.4 | 86% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Grace Yakutis |  Coronado Islanders |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
