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PCCSC Fall Women's Champs

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 5 5 5 4 10 1 1 3 1 1 2 7 6 2 4 7 1 65 Kerri Luttrell '21
Olivia Beers '21
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 4 7 8 2 4 5 5 2 3 8 4 2 1 3 7 2 11 78 Madeline Kraus '20
Mary Toomey '22
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers A 7 1 3 3 2 4 2 4 5 4 7 4 7 6 10 9 7 85 Emi Stephanoff '21
Savannah Boyd '21
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 10 10 2 8 1 6 6 9 4 5 5 5 3 1 2 6 10 93 Leah Ford '19
Hallie Muller '20
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 2 2 1 6 7 7 7 6 7 3 6 9 2 4 5 3 6 103 MRP Grace Yakutis '20 [1-17]
Lorea Mendiguren '20 [1-4]
Kai Otsmaa '21 [5-9]
Camille Infurna '22 [10-17]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 1 9 7 1 12 2 14 5 10 2 1 1 11 7 1 1 3 108 MRP Sarah Alexander '19 [1-17]
Sabrina Moreno '19 [1-4, 10-17]
Rachel Leipold '22 [5-9]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 3 8 10 11 9 8 10 8 9 7 10 3 9 11 9 5 4 134 Elizabeth Hansen '19 [1-17]
Makena Cunningham Barkus '22 [1-2, 10-17]
Sarah Paulsen '20 [3-9]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 9 6 6 12 8 9 4 13 11 10 8 6 4 5 8 14 5 138 Alyson Crowley '20
Helen Payne '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 8 15 4 7 11 3 3 1 14 11 11 8 8 14 6 8 8 140 Josselyn Verutti '21 [1-17]
Peyton Nienaber '22 [1-3, 10-14]
Maddie Roman '20 [4-9, 15-17]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 12 4 9 10 5 13 8 14 13 14 9 11 10 13 12 4 9 170 Maddy Kuhn '20
Mary Jane Howland '22
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 15 12 11 5 6 10 9 11 6 12 14 12 13 8 15 11 2 172 Josefina Ruggieri '21 [1-17]
Mackenzie Berwick '22 [1-15]
Sarah Paulsen '20 [16-17]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 6 3 12 13 14 12 11 10 12 6 13 10 5 9 3 12 14 185 MRP Annika Garrett '19 [1-17]
Megan Lucas '20 [1-5, 10-17]
Megan Zamzow '19 [6-9]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers B 11 16 13 14 3 DNF 12 12 2 13 3 13 12 10 11 10 13 187 Hailey Thompson '22
Cari Brown '19
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 16 11 14 9 13 11 13 7 8 9 12 14 14 12 14 13 12 222 MRP Hayden Lahr '22 [1-13, 16-17]
Megan Zamzow '19 [14-15]
Kelly Sojka '19 [1-4, 10-13, 16-17]
Paige Sullivan '19 [5-9, 14-15]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters B 18 18 DNF DNF DNF DNS DNS DNS DNF 15 15 16 15 16 13 15 15 289 Hali Aniol '19 [1-17]
Jessica Woodruff '21 [1-2, 4-11]
Karla Reyes '20 [3, 12-17]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters A 17 17 16 DNF DNF DNS DNS DNS DNF 16 16 15 16 15 16 16 16 290 Madeline Bachus '19 [1-17]
Noemie Vol '19 [1-2]
Maud Charlet '20 [3-17]
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros A 14 14 15 15 15 14 15 15 15 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 304 MRP No Show
No Show
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros B 13 13 BKD DNF DNF DNS DNS DNS DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 329 MRP No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears2424242424242424242424242424242424
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers101101101101101101101101101101101101101101101101101
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs44444444444444444
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows3535353535353535353535353535353535
Santa Barbara City CollegeSanta Barbara City College Vaqueros3232323232323232323232323232323232
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans3838383838383838383838383838383838
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters2525252525252525252525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins2828282828282828282828282828282828
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3131313131313131313131313131313131

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears6969696969696969696969696969696969
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers6666666666666666666666666666666666
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs6565656565656565656565656565656565
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows7474747474747474747474747474747474
Santa Barbara City CollegeSanta Barbara City College Vaqueros6767676767676767676767676767676767
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans7575757575757575757575757575757575
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters7070707070707070707070707070707070
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins6868686868686868686868686868686868
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos7171717171717171717171717171717171
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Alyson Crowley '20 Helen Payne '19
Mustangs Josselyn Verutti '21 [1-17] Peyton Nienaber '22 [1-3, 10-14]
Maddie Roman '20 [4-9, 15-17]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Emi Stephanoff '21 Savannah Boyd '21
Keelhaulers Hailey Thompson '22 Cari Brown '19
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College No Show No Show
Vaqueros No Show No Show
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Elizabeth Hansen '19 [1-17] Makena Cunningham Barkus '22 [1-2, 10-17]
Sarah Paulsen '20 [3-9]
Bears Josefina Ruggieri '21 [1-17] Mackenzie Berwick '22 [1-15]
Sarah Paulsen '20 [16-17]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Madeline Bachus '19 [1-17] Noemie Vol '19 [1-2]
Maud Charlet '20 [3-17]
Anteaters Hali Aniol '19 [1-17] Jessica Woodruff '21 [1-2, 4-11]
Karla Reyes '20 [3, 12-17]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Leah Ford '19 Hallie Muller '20
Bruins Maddy Kuhn '20 Mary Jane Howland '22
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Madeline Kraus '20 Mary Toomey '22
Gauchos Kerri Luttrell '21 Olivia Beers '21
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Hayden Lahr '22 [1-13, 16-17]
Megan Zamzow '19 [14-15]		 Kelly Sojka '19 [1-4, 10-13, 16-17]
Paige Sullivan '19 [5-9, 14-15]
Rainbows Annika Garrett '19 [1-17] Megan Lucas '20 [1-5, 10-17]
Megan Zamzow '19 [6-9]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Sarah Alexander '19 [1-17] Sabrina Moreno '19 [1-4, 10-17]
Rachel Leipold '22 [5-9]
Trojans Grace Yakutis '20 [1-17] Lorea Mendiguren '20 [1-4]
Kai Otsmaa '21 [5-9]
Camille Infurna '22 [10-17]

Conditions — 10/27/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1014.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southern Cal: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →