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Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 25 25
2 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 32 32
3 Cork Institute of Technology Cork Institute of Technology Admirals 39 39
4 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 47 47
5 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 47 47
6 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 48 48
7 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 62 62
8 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 65 65
9 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 86 86
10 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 110 110
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 1 8 1 25
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 1 1 6 DSQ 4 1 2 2 2 32
Cork Institute of Technology Cork Institute of Technology Admirals 4 2 3 2 5 3 4 8 5 3 39
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 4 4 8 6 6 5 6 3 4 47
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 8 5 6 4 4 1 8 5 1 5 47
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 5 6 5 5 1 7 3 3 7 6 48
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 9 8 7 3 7 5 RDG 4 6 7 62
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 6 7 9 7 3 8 6 7 4 8 65
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 7 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 86
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 110
School Team Sailors
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers SkipperJohannes McElvain '18
CrewEmi Stephanoff '21
CrewBrock Paquin '22
CrewLucas Earley '19
CrewHailey Thompson '22
CrewBenjamin Rohr '19
CrewRyan Schack '21
ReserveNolan Van Dine '20
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars SkipperJordan Wiggins '20
CrewWill Comerford '21
CrewBurke Anvari '21
CrewEmily Essi '21
Crewemily potter '22
CrewGraham Post '21
CrewSam Tobio '20
ReserveWilliam Hundahl '19
Cork Institute of Technology Cork Institute of Technology Admirals SkipperHarry Durcan '22
CrewGeorgia Keating '22
CrewScott O’Sullivan '21
CrewGrattan Roberts '21
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers SkipperKyle Comerford '19
CrewBailey Kerr '20
CrewPeter Mosconi '19
CrewMiller Condrack '20
CrewJeffrey Ellington '19
CrewGarrett Bolton '21
CrewDaniel Watkins '20
ReserveKatherine Mooney '22
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears SkipperEric Gimple '20
CrewTobias Ferl '20
CrewGregory Gaskel '20
CrewRichard O'Leary '21
CrewJesse McKnight '21
CrewMegan Wadleigh '21
CrewLiam Long '22
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners SkipperNo show [1]
SkipperBenjamin White '19 [10]
CrewTristan Boro '21 [1]
CrewAmanda Yeam '22 [10]
CrewJack Stancil '22 [10]
CrewColton Ramsey '22 [10]
CrewGeorge DiFilippo '22 [10]
CrewKatherine Swenney '22 [10]
CrewKyle Nelson '22 [10]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen SkipperGeorge Davis '19
CrewMatthew Signorelli '19
CrewViktor Turner '19
CrewCassidy O'Brien '19
CrewSean Caraher '20
CrewZachary Krause '20
CrewZackary Bauer '20
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins SkipperNo show
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos SkipperLucas Pierce '21
CrewCatherine Reynolds '22
CrewTristan Richmond '22
CrewSidney Gathrid '22
CrewJack Holbrook '21
CrewDylan Finestone '19
CrewClaire Hunt '19
ReserveOlivia Beers '21
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans SkipperSarah Alexander '19
CrewClifford Lester '19
CrewGrace Yakutis '20
CrewKatie McAllister '21
CrewNicholas Stefanoni '21
CrewSabrina Moreno '19
CrewWill Paulsen '19

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.
  • — in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  10 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Jordan Wiggins '20College of Charleston10/101.63u3.07+1.4493rd → 99th7.21%2.5 / 5.5
2Johannes McElvain '18California Maritime Academy10/102.413.30+0.8999th → 99th2.726%3.2 / 4.2
3Harry Durcan '22Cork Institute of Technology10/100.74u2.43+1.6961st → 99th10.82%3.9 / 7.1
4George Davis '19U. S. Naval Academy10/101.67u2.05+0.3894th → 99th0.730%4.7 / 5.6
4Lucas Pierce '21University of California at Santa Barbara10/102.111.94−0.1699th → 99th0.152%4.7 / 4.8
6Kyle Comerford '19SUNY Maritime College10/101.542.09+0.5491st → 99th1.527%4.8 / 5.8
7Sarah Alexander '19University of Southern California10/102.211.15−1.0699th → 79th7.292%6.5 / 4.5
8Eric Gimple '20U. S. Coast Guard Academy10/101.311.42+0.1186th → 88th0.168%6.7 / 6.1
9Benjamin White '19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1/100.61u——55th → —1.076%9.0 / 7.1

Conditions — 03/08/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.5 kn
avg  ·  max 15.6 kn
Gusts to 28.4 kn
From W (269°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1017.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Cal Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Cal Maritime in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Cal Maritime: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →