California Maritime Academy '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.06 (fleet 2.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 69–37 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 34–17 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 25–5 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 10–15 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (106 matches) the record is 69–37 against 63.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.6). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | Carter Ford PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.66 | 4.18 | 11–4 | 8.1 | +1.52 | 3.1 | 4% |
| 2019-02-23 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 1.75 | 7–9 | 8.7 | −0.76 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 2019-02-09 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 2.53 | 1.26 | 7–3 | 8.7 | −1.27 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 2019-01-26 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 4.24 | 9–1 | 7.1 | +1.80 | 2.3 | 10% |
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 5.23 | 17–0 | 15.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 14% |
| 2018-01-27 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | 3.15 | 8–5 | 5.5 | +1.17 | 2.0 | 10% |
| 2017-02-25 | 2017 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.00 | 1.88 | 6–11 | 6.3 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2017-02-11 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.66 | 1.88 | 4–4 | 3.7 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 56% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 2.80 |
| Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (SCOR) A Div Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 3.7 | — |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 2.3 | — |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| PCCSC Southern Area Designate | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.1 | 2.92 |
| PCCSC Coed Dinghy Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.4 | 3.01 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Gaucho Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Triton Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.7 | 3.58 |
| Stoney Burke Varsity | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 3.33 |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.7 | 2.27 |
| 2019 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.9 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (SCOR) | Crew | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 4.4 | — |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 3.09 |
| Pacific Coast Coed Dinghy Championships | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 1.39 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.9 | 2.34 |
| Gaucho Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | B | 7 | 15.1 | 1.66 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 15.4 | 1.20 |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 4.8 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.0 | 2.17 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 3.2 | — |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.4 | 3.09 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 2.31 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| 2017 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 35% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 3 | 18.7 | 1.46 |
| Kennedy Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 3.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
