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McIntyre Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 15–1
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 14–2
3 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 10–6
4 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 7–9
5 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 5–8
6 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 7–6
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 6–7
8 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4–9
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3–10
10 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 0–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,945 team race matches sailed before 2019-02-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 65 of 71 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.245 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.39 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 84% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		110.60
school +0.56, home +0.41		John Kirkpatrick / Laurel Foster 2.73
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Mathew Hogan 3.21
Wiley Rogers / Victoria Thompson 3.60		94%15–1 (94%)−0.1
2University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		29.09David Eastwood / Claire Hunt 3.04 11–2
Quinn Wilson / Elizabeth Moody 2.97 9–0
Lucas Pierce / Samantha Obel 3.13 8–0
Lucas Pierce / Tristan Richmond 3.14 6–2
Quinn Wilson / Sampson Reynolds 2.87 5–2
Sidney Gathrid / Robert Johnson 2.84 2–0
Sidney Gathrid / Claire Hunt 2.84 1–0		75%14–2 (88%)+2.0
3University of Hawaii
Rainbows		77.33Michael Pacholski / Devon Stapleton 2.50
Patrick Wilkinson / Danielle Ahir 2.72
Mathew Butler / Annika Garrett 5–6
Mathew Butler / Sophie Deming 5–0		44%10–6 (62%)+3.0
4California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		37.92
school +0.23		Benjamin Rohr / Emi Stephanoff 2.51
Brock Paquin / Matthew Thomas 2.76
Jacob Fisker-Andersen / Hailey Thompson 2.36		54%7–9 (44%)−1.7
5University of Southern California
Trojans		67.07
school −0.49		Sarah Alexander / Sabrina Moreno 2.36
Will Paulsen / Lauren Lopez 2.32
Nicholas Stefanoni / Katie Mcallister 2.80		46%5–8 (38%)−0.9
6Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		46.30
school +0.42		Liam Hood / Peyton Nienaber 2.24
Alyson Crowley / Mitchell Carroll 2.06
Kai Ponting / Helen Payne 1.52		54%7–6 (54%)−0.0
7University of California at Berkeley
Bears		56.19
school −0.18		Drake Hayes / Megan Grosspietsch 2.26
Elizabeth Hansen / Mackenzie Berwick 2.01
Ciara Dorsay / Lindsea Hayes 2.04		52%6–7 (46%)−0.8
8Northwestern University
Wildcats		85.49
school −0.17		Ryder Easterlin / Mariel Tang 2.25
Will Davies / Madison Shirey
Mitchell Moore / Audrey Debruine 1.43 3–4
Lillian Nemeth / Natalie Shilati 1–5		40%4–9 (31%)−1.2
9Western Washington University
Vikings		94.43
school −0.11		Axel Greening / Julia Soes 1.76
Niko Twilla / Rebecca Sharp 1.13
Dillon Kilroy / Amber Crabb 1.60 1–6
Dillon Kilroy / Emily Hammond 1.58 2–4		24%3–10 (23%)−0.2
10University of Chicago
Maroons		101.10
school +0.09		Erin Abbott / Madison Jewell
Nick Nowicki / Joyce Passananti
Stephane Vinet / Bay Hodge		1%0–13 (0%)−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of California at Santa Barbara9.0910.5214–212.0+1.431.911%
3University of Hawaii7.338.6410–67.0+1.322.95%
6Cal Poly University S.L.O.6.306.297–67.0−0.010.065%
1Stanford University10.6010.5115–115.1−0.090.077%
9Western Washington University4.434.273–103.2−0.160.072%
7University of California at Berkeley6.195.756–76.8−0.440.384%
5University of Southern California7.076.555–85.9−0.520.386%
4California Maritime Academy7.927.167–98.7−0.760.993%
8Northwestern University5.494.714–95.2−0.780.691%
10University of Chicago1.10-1.900–130.1≤−3.000.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Sidney GathridUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.845.843–02.9≥+3.000.290%
Quinn WilsonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.974.4014–212.0+1.431.911%
Mathew ButlerUniversity of Hawaii2.003.3210–67.0+1.322.95%
Alyson CrowleyCal Poly University S.L.O.2.062.057–67.0−0.010.065%
Telis Athanasopoulos YogoStanford University3.213.1315–115.1−0.090.077%
Dillon KilroyWestern Washington University1.601.443–103.2−0.160.072%
Axel GreeningWestern Washington University1.761.603–103.2−0.160.072%
Elizabeth HansenUniversity of California at Berkeley2.011.576–76.8−0.440.384%
Benjamin RohrCalifornia Maritime Academy2.511.757–98.7−0.760.993%
Jacob Fisker-AndersenCalifornia Maritime Academy2.361.607–98.7−0.760.993%
Mitchell MooreNorthwestern University1.430.113–44.1−1.321.196%
Erin AbbottUniversity of Chicago0.36-2.640–130.1≤−3.000.2>99%
Nick NowickiUniversity of Chicago0.05-2.950–130.1≤−3.000.2>99%
Stephane VinetUniversity of Chicago-0.09-3.090–130.1≤−3.000.2>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11California Maritime AcademyCal Poly University S.L.O.84%
12University of Southern CaliforniaNorthwestern University83%
13University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Berkeley70%
14University of California at Santa BarbaraWestern Washington University99%
15Stanford UniversityUniversity of Chicago100%
16California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Southern California70%
17University of HawaiiCal Poly University S.L.O.69%
18University of California at Santa BarbaraNorthwestern University97%
19University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of Chicago100%
110Stanford UniversityWestern Washington University100%
111University of HawaiiUniversity of Southern California55%
112University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy77%
113Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of Chicago100%
114Western Washington UniversityNorthwestern University26%upset
115Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley99%
116University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii87%
117University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Chicago100%
118California Maritime AcademyWestern Washington University97%
119Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley53%
120Stanford UniversityNorthwestern University99%
121University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Chicago100%
122University of HawaiiWestern Washington University94%
123University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of California at Berkeley71%
124California Maritime AcademyNorthwestern University92%
125Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.99%
126Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Chicago96%
127University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley93%
128University of HawaiiNorthwestern University85%
129University of Southern CaliforniaCal Poly University S.L.O.68%
130Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy94%
131University of California at BerkeleyWestern Washington University85%
132Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Chicago99%
133University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.94%
134University of HawaiiCalifornia Maritime Academy36%upset
135Stanford UniversityUniversity of Southern California97%
136University of California at BerkeleyNorthwestern University67%
137Cal Poly University S.L.O.Western Washington University87%
138California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Chicago100%
139University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California88%
140Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii96%
141Northwestern UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.31%upset
142California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Berkeley85%
143University of Southern CaliforniaWestern Washington University93%
144University of HawaiiUniversity of Chicago100%
145Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara82%
146University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii86%
147Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy94%
148University of California at BerkeleyWestern Washington University85%
149Cal Poly University S.L.O.Northwestern University69%
150University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California88%
151Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii96%
152University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of Chicago99%
153Cal Poly University S.L.O.Western Washington University87%
154California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Southern California70%
155Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara82%
156Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Chicago98%
157Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley52%
158University of HawaiiCalifornia Maritime Academy38%upset
159Stanford UniversityUniversity of Southern California97%
160Northwestern UniversityWestern Washington University74%
161Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of Chicago99%
162University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy78%
163University of HawaiiUniversity of Southern California58%
164University of California at BerkeleyNorthwestern University67%
165Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Chicago95%
466University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii85%
467Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy94%
468University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy78%
469Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii96%
470University of HawaiiCalifornia Maritime Academy38%upset
471University of California at Santa BarbaraStanford University18%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosRainbowsKeelhaulersTrojansMustangsBearsWildcatsVikingsMaroons
Stanford University Cardinal13–0✕WWWWWWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos11–2L✕WWWWWWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows9–4LL✕WWWWWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers7–6LLL✕WWWWWW
University of Southern California Trojans5–8LLLL✕WWWWW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs7–6LLLLL✕WWWW
University of California at Berkeley Bears6–7LLLLLL✕WWW
Northwestern University Wildcats4–9LLLLLLL✕WW
Western Washington University Vikings3–10LLLLLLLL✕W
University of Chicago Maroons0–13LLLLLLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.CardinalGauchosRainbowsKeelhaulers
Stanford University Cardinal2–1✕LWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3–0W✕WW
University of Hawaii Rainbows1–2LL✕W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-5-6
2 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
3 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
4 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-6
5 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Chicago Maroons 4-5-6
6 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
7 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
9 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-3-4 def. University of Chicago Maroons 2-5-6
10 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
11 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
12 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
13 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-5 def. University of Chicago Maroons 2-4-6
14 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
15 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
16 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
17 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-3 def. University of Chicago Maroons 4-5-6
18 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
19 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-4-5
20 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
21 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of Chicago Maroons 4-5-6
22 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
23 University of Southern California Trojans 1-3-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-4-6
24 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-6
25 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-6
26 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-3 def. University of Chicago Maroons 4-5-6
27 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-5-6
28 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
29 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5
30 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
31 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
32 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-5 def. University of Chicago Maroons 3-4-6
33 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-5-6
34 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
35 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
36 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
37 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
38 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-4 def. University of Chicago Maroons 2-5-6
39 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-5
40 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
41 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-3-6
42 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
43 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
44 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-3 def. University of Chicago Maroons 4-5-6
45 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5
46 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-4-6
47 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
48 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
49 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
50 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
51 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
52 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Chicago Maroons 1-5-6
53 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-5
54 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-5
55 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-5-6
56 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-4 def. University of Chicago Maroons 3-5-6
57 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
58 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
59 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-5
60 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
61 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-4 def. University of Chicago Maroons 3-5-6
62 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-4-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-6
63 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-6 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-5
64 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
65 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-3 def. University of Chicago Maroons 4-5-6
66 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
67 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
68 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
69 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
70 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-5-6
71 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-6 def. Stanford University Cardinal 2-4-5
SchoolTeam SkippersCrew
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal John Kirkpatrick '22
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo '22
Wiley Rogers '22		 Laurel Foster '22
Mathew Hogan '21
Victoria Thompson '21
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos David Eastwood '22
Lucas Pierce '21
Quinn Wilson '21
Sidney Gathrid '22		 Claire Hunt '19
Samantha Obel '21
Tristan Richmond '22
Elizabeth Moody '20
Sampson Reynolds '21
Robert Johnson '19
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows Mathew Butler '19
Michael Pacholski '19
Patrick Wilkinson '20		 Annika Garrett '19
Sophie Deming '20
Devon Stapleton '22
Danielle Ahir '20
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers Benjamin Rohr '19
Brock Paquin '22
Jacob Fisker-Andersen '21		 Emi Stephanoff '21
Matthew Thomas '21
Hailey Thompson '22
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans Nicholas Stefanoni '21
Sarah Alexander '19
Will Paulsen '19		 Katie Mcallister '21
Sabrina Moreno '19
Lauren Lopez '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs Alyson Crowley '20
Kai Ponting '23
Liam Hood '20		 Mitchell Carroll '21
Helen Payne '19
Peyton Nienaber '22
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears Ciara Dorsay '21
Drake Hayes '21
Elizabeth Hansen '19		 Lindsea Hayes '22
Megan Grosspietsch '20
Mackenzie Berwick '22
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats Lillian Nemeth '22
Mitchell Moore '21
Ryder Easterlin '20
Will Davies '22		 Natalie Shilati '20
Audrey Debruine '19
Mariel Tang '20
Madison Shirey '19
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings Axel Greening '21
Dillon Kilroy '19
Niko Twilla '21		 Julia Soes '21
Emily Hammond '20
Amber Crabb '20
Rebecca Sharp '22
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons Erin Abbott '21
Nick Nowicki '20
Stephane Vinet '19		 Madison Jewell '20
Joyce Passananti '22
Bay Hodge '21

Conditions — 02/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1026.4 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.3 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From W (270°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1026.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →