University of California at Santa Barbara '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.90 (fleet 4.00) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 79–36 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 6–3 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 26–10 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 47–23 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (115 matches) the record is 79–36 against 79.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-25 | PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.23 | 3.25 | 6–3 | 6.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 2020-02-29 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 3.33 | 11–10 | 11.6 | −0.15 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2020-02-01 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 3.43 | 6.43 | 15–0 | 13.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.5 | 16% |
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.17 | 3.33 | 6–9 | 5.7 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2019-04-06 | Carter Ford PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.15 | 2.54 | 10–5 | 11.1 | −0.61 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 2019-02-23 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 4.40 | 14–2 | 12.0 | +1.43 | 1.9 | 11% |
| 2019-02-16 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 2.83 | 1.20 | 8–6 | 10.5 | −1.62 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2019-01-26 | Gaucho Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 2.60 | 9–1 | 8.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 71% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
