LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship

HostBrown
Date05/25/2019
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	21–4
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	20–5
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	17–8
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	15–10
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	0–0
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	12–10
7	Boston College	Eagles	12–10
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	11–11
9	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–9
10	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	6–9
11	Fordham University	Rams	6–9
12	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	4–11
13	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	3–12
14	Jacksonville University	Fins	1–14
15	University of Washington	Huskies	1–14
16	University of Michigan	Wolverines	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,874 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 124 of 154 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.417 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.18 ± 0.17: an orderly event, more orderly than 64% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.96 school +0.27	Nicholas Baird / Kira Woods 4.50 Shawn Harvey / Graceann Nicolosi 3.83 16–4 Nicolas Hernandez / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.46 15–4 Nicolas Hernandez / Claudia Loiacono 3.31 6–0 Christine Klingler / Graceann Nicolosi 3.39 4–0 Christine Klingler / Sam Tobin 3.36 1–0	74%	21–4 (84%)	+2.6
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	3	11.73 school +0.18	Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 4.15 15–4 William Logue / Caroline Teare 3.69 14–4 Andy Reiter / Haley Shea 3.77 11–4 Andy Reiter / Claire Mohun 3.66 7–1 William Logue / Jack Hogan 3.75 5–1 Sean Segerblom / Noah Kelleher 4.00 3–1 Andy Reiter / Marley Mais 3.73 1–0 Jack Reiter / Caroline Teare 3.66 1–0 Sean Segerblom / Marley Mais 4.08 1–0 Sean Segerblom / Caroline Teare 3.97 1–0 Andrew Person / Lucy Beimfohr 3.19 1–0	68%	20–5 (80%)	+2.9
3	Stanford University Cardinal	2	11.84 school +0.50	Jacob Rosenberg / Kathryn Booker 3.58 15–8 Jack Parkin / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.98 10–6 Romain Screve / Sammy Pickell 3.78 10–6 Jack Parkin / Camille White 3.96 6–2 Romain Screve / Meg Gerli 3.74 5–2 Jacob Rosenberg / Meg Gerli 3.57 2–0 Romain Screve / Madeline Bubb 3.71 2–0 Jack Parkin / Victoria Thompson 3.95 1–0	70%	17–8 (68%)	−0.4
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	11.20 school +0.29	Jack Mcgraw / Paige Clarke 3.41 13–10 Christopher Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 4.15 8–9 Timothy Greenhouse / Eloise Burn 3.40 9–7 Timothy Greenhouse / Aisling Sullivan 3.45 6–3 Christopher Williford / Mary Amis 3.89 5–1 Christopher Williford / Alyssa Berger 4.03 2–0 Max Clapp / Carlota Hopkins Guerra 2.88 1–0 Max Clapp / Aisling Sullivan 3.11 1–0	57%	15–10 (60%)	+0.7
5	College of Charleston Cougars	5	11.46 school +0.49	Steven Leuck / Payton Alexander 3.45 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.89 9–4 Jack Brown / Annabel Carrington 3.60 6–3 Augie Dale / Annabel Carrington 3.94 7–2 Jack Brown / Oliver Parsons 3.52 7–2 Alie Toppa / Annabel Carrington 3.72 3–1	64%	16–6 (73%)	+1.8
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	11.51 school +0.36	Parker Loftus / Sally Johnson 3.63 10–9 Connor Bayless / Kimmie Leonard 3.78 9–9 Jc Hermus / Ana Mier 3.74 9–8 Jc Hermus / Sean Linden 3.67 2–2 Connor Bayless / Emma Remis 3.81 2–1 Parker Loftus / Brittney Slook 3.51 1–1 Maxwell Brill / Bartholomew Winn 3.48 1–0 Jc Hermus / Brittney Slook 3.63 1–0 Maxwell Brill / Emma Remis 3.49 1–0	66%	12–10 (55%)	−2.6
7	Boston College Eagles	9	10.72 school +0.20	Isabella Loosbrock / Emma Perry 3.17 6–9 Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.57 6–9 Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.90 6–8 Sophia Reineke / Declan Mcgranahan 3.43 3–1 Wade Waddell / Laura Ferraris 3.60 2–1 Wade Waddell / Emma Perry 3.68 2–1 Thomas Walden / Caroline Downey 3.27 2–0 Peter Lynn / Laura Ferraris 3.12 2–0 Isabella Loosbrock / Laura Ferraris 3.11 1–1 Wade Waddell / Caroline Downey 3.84 2–0 Isabella Loosbrock / Robert Hunter 3.30 1–0 Isabella Loosbrock / Declan Mcgranahan 3.19 1–0 Peter Lynn / Tara Ferraris 3.37 1–0 Isabella Loosbrock / Tara Ferraris 3.33 1–0	50%	12–10 (55%)	+0.9
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	10.96 school +0.15	Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.81 6–10 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.85 4–10 Kyle Easton / Aidan Morgan 3.19 4–10 Charles Miller / Aidan Morgan 3.78 5–1 Hector Guzman / Charles Carraway 3.73 5–1 Kyle Easton / Jake Vickers 3.17 5–1 Hector Guzman / Jake Vickers 3.80 2–0 Kyle Easton / Anna Flaherty 3.19 2–0	55%	11–11 (50%)	−1.1
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	10.75 school +0.24	Matthew Kaplan / Louisa Lindgren 3.98 6–7 Matt Safford / Julia Adams 3.10 5–7 Christian Filter / Marie Bergsund 3.52 3–4 Christian Filter / Emily Gonzalez 3.47 3–2 Matt Safford / John Seider 2.92 1–2 Alden Grimes / Louisa Lindgren 3.39 0–2 Matthew Kaplan / Emily Gonzalez 3.95 0–2 Alden Grimes / Alissa Chen 3.19 0–1	59%	6–9 (40%)	−2.8
10	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	12	9.36	Quinn Wilson / Elizabeth Moody 3.17 4–6 Lucas Pierce / Samantha Obel 3.20 4–5 David Eastwood / Claire Hunt 3.11 3–4 Lucas Pierce / Jake Zieba 3.16 2–3 Quinn Wilson / Sampson Reynolds 3.05 2–3 David Eastwood / Tristan Richmond 3.06 2–1 Sidney Gathrid / Claire Hunt 2.96 0–2 Sidney Gathrid / Tristan Richmond 2.91 0–2 Sidney Gathrid / Samantha Obel 2.87 0–1 Sidney Gathrid / Sampson Reynolds 2.87 1–0	38%	6–9 (40%)	+0.3
11	Fordham University Rams	10	9.85 school +0.23	Brad Seferian / Cortney Rielly 3.33 4–6 Matt Cappetta / Jacqueline Tobin 3.27 3–6 Tucker Hersam / Annika Ekholm 3.01 3–6 Matt Cappetta / Edward Harrison 3.21 2–3 Brad Seferian / Declan Lombard 3.19 1–3 Roberto Stevens / Tucker Hersam 3.38 0–3 Tucker Hersam / Declan Lombard 3.06 1–0 Matt Cappetta / Annika Ekholm 3.10 1–0 Brad Seferian / Edward Harrison 3.25 1–0 Roberto Stevens / Declan Lombard 3.34 1–0 Clayton Snyder / Annika Ekholm 2.52 1–0	45%	6–9 (40%)	−0.7
12	University of Wisconsin Badgers	13	7.93 school −0.12	Charlie Kutschenreuter / Olivia Staruck 2.72 3–8 Christian Spencer / Maggie Houtz 2.60 3–8 Samuel Bartel / Kate Britt 2.67 3–7 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Peter Sauer 2.71 1–3 Christian Spencer / Thomas Kelly 2.74 1–3 Samuel Bartel / Maggie Houtz 2.65 1–2 Samuel Bartel / William Huerth 2.63 0–2	21%	4–11 (27%)	+0.9
13	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	14	7.62 school −0.21	Alex Schwinn / Leena Siiteri 2.55 John Hanna / Ava Cares 3.15 Jonathan Sager / Connor Sager 2.08	17%	3–12 (20%)	+0.4
14	Jacksonville University Fins	11	9.49 school +0.31	Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Jack Gower 3.43 2–9 Andre Guaragna / Daniel Ofarril 3.18 2–9 Stephan Verhulst / Charlotte Rose 2.45 2–9 Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Daniel Ofarril 3.57 1–3 Andre Guaragna / Mia Porter 3.03 1–3 Stephan Verhulst / Ana Carrasco 2.71 1–3	39%	3–12 (20%)	−2.8
15	University of Washington Huskies	16	6.08 school −0.14	Connor Hughes / Cora Knauss 2.00 Hayden Potter / Farzana Mohamedali 1.93 Erik Skeel / Avery Wolf 2.24	6%	1–14 (7%)	+0.2
16	University of Michigan Wolverines	15	6.50 school −0.05	Connor Goulet / Sarah Silvestri 2.15 Harrison George / Kristen Picard 2.06 1–13 Jenna Probst / Margaret Carroll 2.30 1–8 Jenna Probst / Jake Orhan 2.27 0–5 Will Neubauer / Margaret Carroll 1.58 0–1 Jenna Probst / Kristen Picard 2.33 0–1	9%	1–14 (7%)	−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Georgetown University	11.73	12.44	20–5	17.1	+0.72	1.5	12%
1	Yale University	11.96	12.66	21–4	18.4	+0.70	1.2	15%
12	University of Wisconsin	7.93	8.58	4–11	3.1	+0.64	0.4	34%
5	College of Charleston	11.46	11.94	16–6	14.2	+0.48	0.6	25%
13	Texas A&M University at Galveston	7.62	7.96	3–12	2.6	+0.34	0.1	52%
7	Boston College	10.72	10.95	12–10	11.1	+0.24	0.2	41%
15	University of Washington	6.08	6.31	1–14	0.8	+0.23	0.0	62%
10	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.36	9.51	6–9	5.7	+0.16	0.0	55%
4	Dartmouth College	11.20	11.34	15–10	14.3	+0.14	0.1	47%
3	Stanford University	11.84	11.76	17–8	17.4	−0.08	0.0	67%
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.96	10.68	11–11	12.1	−0.28	0.2	79%
11	Fordham University	9.85	9.51	6–9	6.7	−0.33	0.2	79%
16	University of Michigan	6.50	6.06	1–14	1.3	−0.44	0.1	82%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	11.51	10.85	12–10	14.6	−0.65	1.2	94%
9	Bowdoin College	10.75	9.48	6–9	8.8	−1.27	2.5	99%
14	Jacksonville University	9.49	7.67	3–12	5.8	−1.82	3.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.77	4.48	19–5	16.1	+0.71	1.5	13%
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.69	4.40	19–5	16.1	+0.71	1.4	13%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.50	5.20	21–4	18.4	+0.70	1.2	15%
Charlie Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	2.72	3.36	4–11	3.1	+0.64	0.4	34%
Jack Brown	College of Charleston	3.60	4.17	13–5	11.2	+0.56	0.7	24%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.89	4.37	16–6	14.2	+0.48	0.6	25%
Alex Schwinn	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.55	2.89	3–12	2.6	+0.34	0.1	52%
John Hanna	Texas A&M University at Galveston	3.15	3.49	3–12	2.6	+0.34	0.1	52%
Jonathan Sager	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.08	2.42	3–12	2.6	+0.34	0.1	52%
Sidney Gathrid	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.96	3.25	1–5	0.8	+0.30	0.0	57%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.90	4.13	12–10	11.1	+0.24	0.2	41%
Isabella Loosbrock	Boston College	3.17	3.34	10–10	9.4	+0.17	0.1	46%
Quinn Wilson	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.17	3.33	6–9	5.7	+0.16	0.0	55%
Timothy Greenhouse	Dartmouth College	3.40	3.54	15–10	14.3	+0.14	0.1	47%
Alie Toppa	College of Charleston	3.72	3.77	3–1	3.0	+0.05	0.0	73%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.81	3.53	11–11	12.1	−0.28	0.2	79%
Roberto Stevens	Fordham University	3.38	2.87	1–3	1.4	−0.51	0.1	84%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.74	3.09	12–10	14.6	−0.65	1.2	94%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	3.43	1.61	3–12	5.8	−1.82	3.4	>99%
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	3.18	1.36	3–12	5.8	−1.82	3.4	>99%
Stephan Verhulst	Jacksonville University	2.45	0.63	3–12	5.8	−1.82	3.4	>99%
Alden Grimes	Bowdoin College	3.39	0.39	0–3	0.9	≤−3.00	1.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Boston College	Fordham University	73%
1	2	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	99%
1	3	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	4	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	63%
1	5	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	43%	upset
1	6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jacksonville University	80%
1	7	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of California at Santa Barbara	13%	upset
1	8	Stanford University	University of Washington	100%
1	9	Boston College	Georgetown University	28%	upset
1	10	Bowdoin College	U. S. Naval Academy	33%	upset
1	11	Fordham University	University of Wisconsin	88%
1	12	Yale University	University of Michigan	99%
1	13	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	14	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
1	15	Dartmouth College	University of California at Santa Barbara	89%
1	16	Jacksonville University	University of Washington	97%
1	17	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	93%
1	18	Yale University	Bowdoin College	77%
1	19	College of Charleston	Fordham University	85%
1	20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Michigan	99%
1	21	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	63%
1	22	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	87%
1	23	Boston College	University of California at Santa Barbara	76%
1	24	Bowdoin College	University of Washington	99%
1	25	Fordham University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	91%
1	26	Stanford University	University of Michigan	100%
1	27	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	97%
1	28	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	75%
1	29	Georgetown University	University of California at Santa Barbara	91%
1	30	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Washington	100%
1	31	Boston College	Dartmouth College	33%	upset
1	32	Bowdoin College	Jacksonville University	76%
1	33	University of Wisconsin	Texas A&M University at Galveston	58%
1	34	Yale University	Stanford University	56%
1	35	Fordham University	University of California at Santa Barbara	58%
1	36	University of Washington	University of Michigan	39%	upset
1	37	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	57%
1	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	36%	upset
1	39	Boston College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	95%
1	40	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	73%
1	41	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Wisconsin	80%
1	42	Yale University	University of Washington	100%
1	43	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	74%
1	44	Jacksonville University	University of Michigan	95%
1	45	Georgetown University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	46	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
1	47	College of Charleston	Boston College	64%
1	48	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bowdoin College	51%
1	49	Dartmouth College	University of Wisconsin	96%
1	50	Yale University	Jacksonville University	89%
1	51	Georgetown University	Fordham University	83%
1	52	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Michigan	99%
1	53	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	89%
1	54	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Washington	99%
1	55	Dartmouth College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	97%
1	56	Stanford University	Jacksonville University	92%
1	57	Bowdoin College	Fordham University	68%
1	58	Yale University	Boston College	75%
1	59	Georgetown University	University of Michigan	99%
1	60	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
1	61	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Washington	96%
1	62	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	38%	upset
1	63	Bowdoin College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	95%
1	64	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	65	Fordham University	Jacksonville University	62%
1	66	Boston College	University of Michigan	98%
1	67	Yale University	University of California at Santa Barbara	91%
1	68	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	44%	upset
1	69	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	71%
1	70	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Texas A&M University at Galveston	96%
1	71	Dartmouth College	University of Washington	99%
1	72	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	73	Fordham University	University of Michigan	93%
1	74	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	89%
1	75	Georgetown University	Bowdoin College	77%
1	76	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston College	60%
1	77	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	88%
1	78	University of Wisconsin	University of Washington	87%
1	79	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	80	Yale University	Dartmouth College	69%
1	81	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Michigan	95%
1	82	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	85%
1	83	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	91%
1	84	College of Charleston	University of Washington	100%
1	85	Stanford University	Boston College	73%
1	86	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	57%
1	87	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	97%
1	88	University of California at Santa Barbara	Bowdoin College	21%	upset
1	89	U. S. Naval Academy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	90	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	99%
1	91	Fordham University	University of Washington	98%
1	92	Dartmouth College	Jacksonville University	86%
1	93	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
1	94	Boston College	Bowdoin College	50%	upset
1	95	Yale University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	96	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	96%
1	97	Stanford University	Fordham University	88%
1	98	University of California at Santa Barbara	Jacksonville University	52%
1	99	Georgetown University	University of Washington	99%
1	100	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	65%
1	101	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	College of Charleston	39%	upset
1	102	University of Michigan	University of Wisconsin	20%	upset
1	103	Jacksonville University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	86%
1	104	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	67%
1	105	Yale University	Georgetown University	57%
1	106	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	91%
1	107	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	76%
1	108	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	99%
1	109	University of Wisconsin	Jacksonville University	18%	upset
1	110	Boston College	University of Washington	99%
1	111	College of Charleston	Yale University	35%	upset
1	112	Georgetown University	Stanford University	48%	upset
1	113	University of California at Santa Barbara	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	15%	upset
1	114	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Michigan	74%
1	115	University of Wisconsin	Bowdoin College	5%	upset
1	116	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	62%
1	117	Boston College	Jacksonville University	79%
1	118	Yale University	Fordham University	90%
1	119	Stanford University	College of Charleston	60%
1	120	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Washington	82%
2	121	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	57%
2	122	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	42%	upset
2	123	Georgetown University	Boston College	72%
2	124	Yale University	College of Charleston	65%
2	125	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	62%
2	126	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
2	127	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
2	128	Yale University	Boston College	74%
2	129	Stanford University	Georgetown University	52%
2	130	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	57%
2	131	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	40%	upset
2	132	U. S. Naval Academy	Yale University	38%	upset
2	133	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	57%
2	134	Stanford University	Boston College	74%
2	135	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	38%	upset
2	136	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	74%
2	137	College of Charleston	Boston College	64%
2	138	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
2	139	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
2	140	Yale University	Dartmouth College	69%
2	141	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	33%	upset
2	142	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
2	143	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	62%
2	144	Yale University	Stanford University	55%
2	145	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	35%	upset
2	146	Dartmouth College	Boston College	67%
2	147	College of Charleston	Stanford University	40%	upset
2	148	Yale University	Georgetown University	57%
2	149	Georgetown University	Stanford University	48%	upset
2	150	Dartmouth College	Yale University	31%	upset
2	151	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	62%
2	152	Yale University	Stanford University	55%
2	153	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	62%
2	154	Georgetown University	Yale University	43%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Cardinal	Green	Cougars	Midshipmen	Eagles	Statesmen	Bears	Gauchos	Rams	Badgers	Aggies	Fins	Huskies	Wolverines
Yale University Bulldogs	14–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	12–3	L	✕	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	12–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	11–4	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	11–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	10–5	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	10–5	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	10–5	L	L	L	L	W	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Washington Huskies	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Cardinal	Green	Cougars	Midshipmen	Eagles	Statesmen
Yale University Bulldogs	7–3	✕	L	W	L	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	8–2	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	5–5	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–6	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	W	L	W	L	L	✕	L	L
Boston College Eagles	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
2	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
3	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
4	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
5	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
6	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
7	Aggies	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
8	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
9	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
10	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
11	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
13	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
14	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
15	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
16	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
17	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
18	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
19	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
20	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
21	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
22	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
23	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
24	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
25	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
27	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
29	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
30	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
31	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
32	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
33	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
34	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
35	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
36	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
38	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
39	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
40	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
41	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
42	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
43	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
44	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
45	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
46	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
47	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
48	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
49	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
50	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
53	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
54	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
55	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
56	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
57	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
60	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
61	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
62	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
63	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
64	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
65	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
66	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
67	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
68	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
69	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
70	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
71	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
72	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
73	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
74	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
75	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
76	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
77	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
78	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
79	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
80	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
81	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
82	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
83	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
84	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
85	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
86	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
87	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
88	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
89	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
90	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
91	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
92	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
93	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
94	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
95	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
96	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
97	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
98	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
99	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
100	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
101	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
102	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
103	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
104	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
105	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
106	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
107	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
108	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
109	Badgers	1-4-5	def.	Fins	2-3-6
110	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
111	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
112	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
113	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
114	Aggies	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
115	Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
116	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
117	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
118	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
119	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
120	Aggies	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
121	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
122	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
123	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
124	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
125	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
126	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
127	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
128	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
129	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
130	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
131	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
132	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
133	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
134	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
135	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
136	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
137	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
138	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
139	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
140	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
141	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
142	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
143	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
144	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
145	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
146	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
147	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
148	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
149	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
150	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
151	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
152	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
153	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
154	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christine Klingler '20 Nicholas Baird '19 Nicolas Hernandez '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Graceann Nicolosi '20 Sam Tobin '23 Kira Woods '19 Claudia Loiacono '21 Sonia Lingos-Utley '22
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andrew Person '21 Andy Reiter '19 Jack Reiter '22 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Lucy Beimfohr '21 Haley Shea '19 Claire Mohun '19 Marley Mais '21 Caroline Teare '21 Rebecca Fung '19 Noah Kelleher '19 Jack Hogan '22
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jack Parkin '21 Jacob Rosenberg '20 Romain Screve '21	Taylor Kirkpatrick '20 Camille White '22 Victoria Thompson '21 Kathryn Booker '19 Meg Gerli '19 Sammy Pickell '22 Madeline Bubb '20
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Williford '19 Jack Mcgraw '20 Max Clapp '21 Timothy Greenhouse '21	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Mary Amis '19 Alyssa Berger '19 Paige Clarke '20 Aisling Sullivan '22 Carlota Hopkins Guerra '22 Eloise Burn '21
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alie Toppa '20 Augie Dale '19 Jack Brown '21 Steven Leuck '20	Annabel Carrington '19 Katherine Lounsbury '20 Oliver Parsons '21 Payton Alexander '19
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Connor Bayless '21 Jc Hermus '22 Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20	Kimmie Leonard '22 Emma Remis '20 Ana Mier '19 Sean Linden '21 Brittney Slook '20 Bartholomew Winn '21 Sally Johnson '22
Boston College	Eagles	Isabella Loosbrock '19 Peter Lynn '19 Sophia Reineke '21 Thomas Walden '20 Wade Waddell '19	Emma Perry '19 Declan Mcgranahan '22 Laura Ferraris '22 Tara Ferraris '19 Robert Hunter '22 Caroline Downey '19 Katharine Bowman '20
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Hector Guzman '20 Kyle Easton '20	Aidan Morgan '21 Lindsey Kloc '19 Charles Carraway '22 Maya Weber '20 Jake Vickers '22 Anna Flaherty '20
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Alden Grimes '21 Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20 Matthew Kaplan '19	Louisa Lindgren '19 Alissa Chen '22 Marie Bergsund '20 Emily Gonzalez '20 Julia Adams '21 John Seider '22
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	David Eastwood '22 Lucas Pierce '21 Quinn Wilson '21 Sidney Gathrid '22	Claire Hunt '19 Tristan Richmond '22 Samantha Obel '21 Jake Zieba '22 Elizabeth Moody '20 Sampson Reynolds '21
Fordham University	Rams	Brad Seferian '19 Clayton Snyder '22 Matt Cappetta '19 Roberto Stevens '19 Tucker Hersam '20	Cortney Rielly '20 Declan Lombard '21 Edward Harrison '22 Annika Ekholm '20 Jacqueline Tobin '20 Tucker Hersam '20
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 Christian Spencer '22 Samuel Bartel '22	Olivia Staruck '20 Peter Sauer '20 Maggie Houtz '19 Thomas Kelly '20 Kate Britt '21 William Huerth '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Alex Schwinn '19 John Hanna '19 Jonathan Sager '20	Leena Siiteri '21 Ava Cares '20 Connor Sager '20
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Stephan Verhulst '19	Jack Gower '20 Daniel Ofarril '22 Mia Porter '22 Charlotte Rose '22 Ana Carrasco '21
University of Washington	Huskies	Connor Hughes '19 Erik Skeel '20 Hayden Potter '20	Cora Knauss '18 Avery Wolf '21 Farzana Mohamedali '20
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Connor Goulet '21 Harrison George '22 Jenna Probst '22 Will Neubauer '20	Sarah Silvestri '19 Kristen Picard '21 Jake Orhan '21 Margaret Carroll '21

Conditions — 05/25/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1021.5 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 59°F

Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.3 kn

avg · max 9.2 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From SW (229°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1021.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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