U. S. Naval Academy '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.96 (fleet 4.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 78–51 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 37–11 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 5 | 23–22 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 18–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (125 matches) the record is 74–51 against 71.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.7). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.38 | 5.10 | 7–1 | 5.0 | +1.73 | 2.3 | 10% |
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.32 | 4.46 | 15–3 | 11.7 | +1.14 | 2.6 | 6% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.17 | 3.38 | 9–4 | 8.5 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.23 | 2.74 | 4–3 | 4.5 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2018-04-07 | Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | skipper | 2.98 | 1.82 | 7–14 | 12.1 | −1.17 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.01 | 4.47 | 9–3 | 5.3 | +1.47 | 3.8 | 2% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.05 | 2.77 | 3–3 | 3.4 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2018-03-03 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.93 | 2.27 | 2–2 | 2.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 2.34 | 8–13 | 10.1 | −0.62 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 2017-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 3.32 | 10–5 | 8.3 | +0.57 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Top MAISA Coed | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 2.87 |
| Chesapeake Invitational Sat FJ | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.9 | 4.57 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.2 | 3.92 |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 1 | 4.0 | 2.77 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 76% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.7 | 3.69 |
| Oyster Bowl Fleet 1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 2.43 |
| Chesapeake Invitational (Sunday) | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.3 | 3.49 |
| Chesapeake Invitational (Sat) | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 4.02 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SMC Quad Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 4.05 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.5 | 3.65 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.5 | 2.04 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.0 | 3.46 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 3 | 13.7 | 2.19 |
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.7 | 3.59 |
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.9 | 4.06 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.1 | 3.27 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.7 | 4.67 |
| David Lee Arnoff Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.6 | 3.81 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.7 | 3.47 |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | 1.80 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 3.18 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.4 | 3.71 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.7 | 2.37 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.1 | 3.82 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.0 | 3.37 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
