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Chesapeake Invitational Sat FJ

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 29 29
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 34 34
3 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 36 36
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 37 37
5 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 41 41
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 42 42
7 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 45 45
8 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 55 55
9 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 62 62
10 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 2 69 69
11 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 75 75
12 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 83 83
13 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 90 90
14 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 3 91 91
15 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 91 91
16 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 95 95
17 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 100 100
18 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 124 124
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 2 2 2 6 6 7 4 29 William Logue '20
Grace Flanagan '23
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 8 1 8 1 7 4 5 34 Jc Hermus '22
Fiona Lobon '22
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 3 16 1 4 5 5 2 36 Sean Segerblom '20
Annabelle Ayer '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1 12 4 8 3 8 1 37 Leo Boucher '22
Ashley Wagner '20
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 5 8 5 2 2 12 7 41 Maxwell Brill '20
Kimmie Leonard '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 6 4 6 3 10 10 3 42 Parker Loftus '20
Sally Johnson '22
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 4 9 7 9 4 2 10 45 Jack Reiter '22
Jack Hogan '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 16 6 3 5 14 3 8 55 Aitana Mendiguren '20
Sarah Noyes '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 9 10 10 10 1 16 6 62 Lewis Cooper '21
Sam Muir '22
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 2 12 11 12 13 8 1 12 69 Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21
Carson Cooper '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 15 5 14 12 9 9 11 75 Matt Logue '22
Cassondra Parker '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 7 13 13 14 16 11 9 83 Cameron Feves '22
Allison Forsyth '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 13 7 16 17 15 6 16 90 Katherine Bennett '22
Thomas Walker '21
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 3 10 3 17 16 17 15 13 91 Anna Patterson '20
Bailey Hurst '20
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 17 15 11 7 13 14 14 91 Parker Purrington '24
Katherine Barton '23
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 11 18 9 11 12 17 17 95 Dreugh Phillips '21
Raymond Domena '23
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 14 17 15 15 11 13 15 100 Spencer Charney '20
Ethan Caldwell '22
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 18 14 18 18 18 DNS DNS 124 Noyl Odom '24
Gavin Burkhart '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 11111111
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 22222222
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 33333333
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 14444444
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 25555555
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 36666666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 17777777
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 28888888
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 39999999
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 116161616161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 217171717171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 318181818181818
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 110101010101010
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 211111111111111
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 312121212121212
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 113131313131313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 214141414141414
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 315151515151515

Conditions — 09/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1024.5 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From SSE (158°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1024.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.20 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →