Christopher Newport University '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 41.57 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.105 rating points from 52 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 (fleet 2.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–7 (0%) as crew 52–98 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | — | 3–21 |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 0–7 | 10–32 |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | — | 26–29 |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | — | 13–16 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 15 graded regattas (157 matches) the record is 52–105 against 53.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 10 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | John T. Jackson Memorial Team Race | crew | 2.60 | 1.04 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.56 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2020-02-29 | Georgetown Team Race | crew | 2.67 | 2.73 | 2–10 | 1.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2019-03-30 | Team Race Challenge | crew | 1.76 | 1.36 | 4–6 | 4.4 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2019-03-23 | Admiral Moore Team Race | crew | 1.76 | 0.88 | 2–5 | 2.9 | −0.88 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 2.51 | -0.49 | 0–4 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | crew | 2.51 | 2.14 | 1–6 | 1.1 | −0.37 | 0.0 | 90% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 1.94 | -1.06 | 0–3 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | crew | 1.94 | -1.06 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| 2019-03-02 | GW Team Race | crew | 2.40 | 3.63 | 3–12 | 1.1 | +1.23 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | crew | 2.31 | 2.09 | 2–6 | 2.2 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2018-03-24 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | crew | 2.31 | 1.92 | 6–14 | 7.3 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2018-03-17 | Washington College Team Race | crew | 2.35 | 1.48 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2018-03-10 | Woollum Team Race | crew | 2.27 | 5.27 | 12–0 | 10.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 24% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | crew | 2.66 | 1.36 | 1–13 | 2.8 | −1.30 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 2017-03-25 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | crew | 2.37 | 3.71 | 12–3 | 8.2 | +1.34 | 3.4 | 3% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| John T. Jackson Memorial Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Qualifier B Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.1 | 2.16 |
| Women's Showcase Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.8 | 1.92 |
| Webb/Woollum Regatta | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.3 | 0.74 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 0.59 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.6 | 2.17 |
| Chesapeake Invitational Sat FJ | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.0 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Crew | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.2 | 1.92 |
| Leroy Grant | Skipper | A | 2 | 10.5 | 1.20 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| GW Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.4 | 2.31 |
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.1 | 2.83 |
| Navy Women's Open Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 2.28 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.0 | 1.23 |
| Luce Trophy | Crew | A | 5 | 9.2 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Woollum Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Team Race Challenge | Crew | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.6 | 0.76 |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Crew | TR | 20 | 30% | — |
| The Grant Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 5.5 | — |
| America Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 14.3 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | B | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Riley Cup | Crew | A | 6 | 10.8 | — |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.8 | 0.49 |
| Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA | Crew | B | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| Colony Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.1 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.2 | 1.06 |
| ODU Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 6.7 | — |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.3 | 2.32 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Crew | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| The Leroy Grant Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 5.3 | — |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.5 | 2.16 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Crew | A | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 16.5 | 0.48 |
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.6 | 2.17 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.0 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.5 | 1.67 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.3 | 1.63 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Anna Patterson |  Unregistered-MASSA |
'16 |
| ISSA | Anna Patterson |  Hampton High School |
'16 |
| ISSA | Anna Patterson |  Kecoughtan High School |
'16 |
| ISSA | Anna Patterson |  Phoebus High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
