Hanbury Trophy Team Race

HostChristopher Newport
Date03/24/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	20–0
2	Jacksonville University	Fins	12–8
3	George Washington University	Colonials	11–9
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	9–11
5	Christopher Newport University	Captains	6–14
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	2–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 60 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.376 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 72% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	10.18 school −0.05	Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.53 16–0 Sean Segerblom / Meaghan Macrae 3.91 12–0 Rose Edwards / Rebecca Fung 2.87 12–0 Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 3.79 8–0 Rose Edwards / Caroline Teare 2.65 4–0 Roger Dorr / Caroline Teare 3.32 4–0 Rose Edwards / Meaghan Macrae 3.00 4–0	93%	20–0 (100%)	+1.4
2	Jacksonville University Fins	3	7.68	Telmo Basterra / Kelsy Waack 2.55 Andre Guaragna / Ana Carrasco 2.53 Stephan Verhulst / Gigi Arias 2.54	49%	12–8 (60%)	+2.1
3	George Washington University Colonials	2	8.35 school +0.18	Wade Wagner / Mercedes Mcphee 2.59 Sam White / Clare Cassidy-Gardner 2.82 Marshall Mccraw / Kia Olsson	65%	11–9 (55%)	−2.0
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	7.42 school +0.15	James Morgan / Bartholomew Winn 2.53 Sean Linden / Abby Richardson Tyler Fleig / Alyson Wade 2.42	44%	9–11 (45%)	+0.3
5	Christopher Newport University Captains	5	7.08 home +0.39	Spencer Charney / Henry Clune 2.25 Javier Gonzalez Rotge / Kaitlyn Reilly 2.06 Vir Menon / Anna Patterson 2.31	36%	6–14 (30%)	−1.2
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	5.85 school −0.11	Olivia Windemuller / Abigail Tutt 1.99 Bridget Groble / Makalynne Dyer Hannah Pokorny / Breanna Schultz	12%	2–18 (10%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Georgetown University	10.18	13.18	20–0	18.6	≥+3.00	2.0	23%
2	Jacksonville University	7.68	8.30	12–8	9.9	+0.62	0.9	20%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	7.42	7.49	9–11	8.7	+0.07	0.0	55%
6	Old Dominion University	5.85	5.59	2–18	2.5	−0.26	0.1	74%
5	Christopher Newport University	7.08	6.70	6–14	7.3	−0.38	0.3	83%
3	George Washington University	8.35	7.78	11–9	13.0	−0.57	0.8	91%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	2.53	3.15	12–8	9.9	+0.62	0.9	20%
Stephan Verhulst	Jacksonville University	2.54	3.15	12–8	9.9	+0.62	0.9	20%
James Morgan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.53	2.60	9–11	8.7	+0.07	0.0	55%
Hannah Pokorny	Old Dominion University	1.42	1.16	2–18	2.5	−0.26	0.1	74%
Javier Gonzalez Rotge	Christopher Newport University	2.06	1.68	6–14	7.3	−0.38	0.3	83%
Vir Menon	Christopher Newport University	2.31	1.92	6–14	7.3	−0.38	0.3	83%
Sam White	George Washington University	2.82	2.25	11–9	13.0	−0.57	0.8	91%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Jacksonville University	George Washington University	33%	upset
1	2	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
1	3	Christopher Newport University	Old Dominion University	82%
1	4	Georgetown University	George Washington University	83%
1	5	Jacksonville University	Old Dominion University	88%
1	6	Christopher Newport University	U. S. Naval Academy	44%	upset
1	7	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	99%
1	8	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
1	9	Jacksonville University	Christopher Newport University	64%
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	83%
1	11	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	93%
1	12	George Washington University	Christopher Newport University	78%
1	13	Jacksonville University	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
1	14	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	93%
1	15	Georgetown University	Christopher Newport University	96%
2	16	George Washington University	Jacksonville University	66%
2	17	Christopher Newport University	Old Dominion University	78%
2	18	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
2	19	Jacksonville University	Christopher Newport University	64%
2	20	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	28%	upset
2	21	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	99%
2	22	U. S. Naval Academy	Christopher Newport University	58%
2	23	Jacksonville University	Old Dominion University	86%
2	24	Georgetown University	George Washington University	83%
2	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	83%
2	26	George Washington University	Christopher Newport University	78%
2	27	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	93%
2	28	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	92%
2	29	Jacksonville University	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
2	30	Georgetown University	Christopher Newport University	96%
3	31	Old Dominion University	Christopher Newport University	23%	upset
3	32	George Washington University	Jacksonville University	66%
3	33	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
3	34	Jacksonville University	Christopher Newport University	65%
3	35	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	98%
3	36	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
3	37	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	93%
3	38	Christopher Newport University	George Washington University	22%	upset
3	39	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	82%
3	40	Georgetown University	George Washington University	83%
3	41	Jacksonville University	Old Dominion University	85%
3	42	U. S. Naval Academy	Christopher Newport University	59%
3	43	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	92%
3	44	Georgetown University	Christopher Newport University	96%
3	45	Jacksonville University	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
4	46	Christopher Newport University	Old Dominion University	76%
4	47	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
4	48	George Washington University	Jacksonville University	66%
4	49	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	18%	upset
4	50	Christopher Newport University	George Washington University	22%	upset
4	51	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	93%
4	52	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	30%	upset
4	53	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	98%
4	54	Jacksonville University	Christopher Newport University	65%
4	55	Georgetown University	George Washington University	83%
4	56	U. S. Naval Academy	Christopher Newport University	60%
4	57	Jacksonville University	Old Dominion University	85%
4	58	Georgetown University	Christopher Newport University	96%
4	59	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	91%
4	60	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	45%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Fins	Colonials	Midshipmen	Captains	Monarchs
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Fins	Colonials	Midshipmen	Captains	Monarchs
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Fins	Colonials	Midshipmen	Captains	Monarchs
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	1–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Fins	Colonials	Midshipmen	Captains	Monarchs
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	L	W	W	✕	W	L
Christopher Newport University Captains	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Fins	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
3	Captains	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
4	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
5	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
6	Captains	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
7	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
8	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
9	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
10	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
11	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
12	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
13	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
14	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
15	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
16	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Fins	2-3-6
17	Captains	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
19	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
20	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
21	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
22	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Captains	1-4-6
23	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
24	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
25	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
26	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Captains	1-4-6
27	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
28	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
29	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
30	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
31	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
32	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
34	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Captains	1-5-6
35	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
36	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
38	Captains	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
39	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
40	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
41	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
42	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Captains	1-5-6
43	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
44	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
45	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
46	Captains	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
47	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
48	Colonials	1-3-6	def.	Fins	2-4-5
49	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
50	Captains	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
53	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
54	Fins	1-3-6	def.	Captains	2-4-5
55	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
56	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
57	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
58	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
59	Colonials	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
60	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Roger Dorr '18 Rose Edwards '18 Sean Segerblom '20	Haley Shea '19 Caroline Teare '21 Rebecca Fung '19 Meaghan Macrae '18
Jacksonville University	Fins	Andre Guaragna '21 Stephan Verhulst '19 Telmo Basterra '21	Ana Carrasco '21 Gigi Arias '21 Kelsy Waack '18
George Washington University	Colonials	Marshall Mccraw '20 Sam White '18 Wade Wagner '19	Kia Olsson '18 Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 Mercedes Mcphee '19
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	James Morgan '18 Sean Linden '21 Tyler Fleig '19	Bartholomew Winn '21 Abby Richardson '21 Alyson Wade '21
Christopher Newport University	Captains	Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Spencer Charney '20 Vir Menon '20	Kaitlyn Reilly '18 Henry Clune '21 Anna Patterson '20
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Bridget Groble '22 Hannah Pokorny '21 Olivia Windemuller '19	Makalynne Dyer '22 Breanna Schultz '21 Abigail Tutt '21

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 53% · Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.2 kn

avg · max 7.9 kn

Gusts to 17.7 kn

From N (355°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1022.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Christopher Newport — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Christopher Newport in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christopher Newport by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled fleet-race days at Christopher Newport).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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