Christopher Newport University '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 67.30 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.108 rating points from 53 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.47 (fleet 3.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 41–103 (28%) as crew 1–5 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 0–2 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 4–23 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 9–44 | 1–5 |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 28–34 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (148 matches) the record is 42–106 against 46.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | John T. Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.78 | 1.22 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.56 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2020-02-29 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 3.20 | 3–12 | 2.2 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 38% |
| 2019-03-30 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.53 | 1.51 | 4–10 | 5.6 | −1.02 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2019-03-23 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 1.54 | 2–8 | 3.3 | −1.04 | 0.9 | 95% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 2.55 | 1.20 | 1–13 | 1.9 | −1.36 | 0.8 | 96% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | -0.49 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2019-03-02 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2–7 | 0.9 | +1.01 | 0.9 | 21% |
| 2019-03-02 | GW Team Race | crew | 2.50 | 4.27 | 1–5 | 0.2 | +1.78 | 1.2 | 20% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.07 | 2.22 | 3–9 | 2.8 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2018-03-24 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.06 | 1.68 | 6–14 | 7.3 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2018-03-17 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.06 | 1.18 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2018-03-10 | Woollum Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | 3.17 | 13–2 | 11.2 | +1.48 | 1.8 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA South Team Race Championships | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| MAISA South Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.5 | 1.83 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| John T. Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.3 | 3.29 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.7 | 3.58 |
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.2 | 2.52 |
| Coed Showcase Qualifier B | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.9 | 3.42 |
| Chesapeake Invitational Sat FJ | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.9 | 3.48 |
| Coed Showcase Tournament | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.4 | 2.67 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Leroy Grant | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.5 | 3.06 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| GW Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.5 | 2.62 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.4 | 2.35 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.4 | 3.02 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.5 | 2.60 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 1.4 | 5.29 |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Crew | A | 16 | 14.2 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Woollum Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 30% | — |
| The Grant Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| Central Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 1.45 |
| America Trophy | Crew | B | 14 | 9.9 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.2 | 2.93 |
| South Qualifier | Crew | A | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | 2.01 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Crew | A | 7 | 8.0 | — |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 2.99 |
| Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA | Skipper | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
