| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 15–0 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 7–8 |
| 4 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 7–8 |
| 5 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 5–7 |
| 6 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 2–10 |
| 7 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 14,785 team race matches sailed before 2020-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 48 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.347 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.21 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 68% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgetown University | 11.99 | 14.99 | 15–0 | 13.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 25% |
| 4 | University of Pennsylvania | 8.76 | 9.58 | 7–8 | 5.1 | +0.82 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 6 | SUNY Maritime College | 7.32 | 7.59 | 2–10 | 1.6 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 10.59 | 10.83 | 11–4 | 10.5 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 5 | Cornell University | 8.73 | 8.86 | 5–7 | 4.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 3 | Boston College | 10.18 | 9.13 | 7–8 | 9.4 | −1.05 | 1.8 | 97% |
| 7 | Christopher Newport University | 7.89 | 6.33 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.56 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | Georgetown University | 3.73 | 6.73 | 15–0 | 13.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 25% |
| Joseph Laforgia | University of Pennsylvania | 3.33 | 4.15 | 7–8 | 5.1 | +0.82 | 1.1 | 17% |
| Gabby Rizika | Cornell University | 2.99 | 3.12 | 5–7 | 4.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Vir Menon | Christopher Newport University | 2.60 | 1.04 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.56 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | Christopher Newport University | 2.78 | 1.22 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.56 | 1.9 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Statesmen | Eagles | Quakers | Red | Privateers | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 6–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 4–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 3–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 3–3 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 0–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Statesmen | Eagles | Quakers | Red | Privateers | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 6–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 5–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 2–4 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | L | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 4–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–5 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Statesmen | Eagles | Quakers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Big Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Captains | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Privateers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Big Red | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Captains | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-3-6 |
| 41 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
