University of Pennsylvania '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.93 (fleet 4.05) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 60–81 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 14–16 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 29–40 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 17–25 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (141 matches) the record is 60–81 against 58.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | John T. Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.33 | 4.15 | 7–8 | 5.1 | +0.82 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 2020-02-29 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.38 | 3.44 | 7–8 | 6.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2019-03-30 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.89 | 3.23 | 11–6 | 10.2 | +0.34 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2019-03-23 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.95 | 3.13 | 5–6 | 4.7 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 2.93 | 2.44 | 5–10 | 6.0 | −0.50 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.89 | 2.64 | 3–8 | 3.4 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2019-03-02 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 2.45 | 5–10 | 6.1 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.54 | 2.64 | 7–8 | 6.7 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 2.34 | 6–8 | 6.4 | −0.17 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.20 | 2.97 | 4–9 | 2.7 | +0.77 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| John T. Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 3.97 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase Qualifier A | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.2 | 4.60 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.9 | 4.49 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.4 | 4.23 |
| Coed Showcase Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.9 | 4.44 |
| Cayuga Lake Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 4.30 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 5.08 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.2 | 3.17 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.9 | 3.45 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.0 | 3.43 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | A, B | 14 | 11.4 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.8 | 3.71 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.3 | 3.01 |
| Top 9 Regatta Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.4 | 2.10 |
| Jesuit Invitational | Skipper | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Harvard Coed Showcase 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 3.90 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.6 | 2.94 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.7 | 3.01 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.8 | 3.34 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.8 | 2.24 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 5 | 14.0 | 2.90 |
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.9 | 2.41 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.0 | 2.65 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 14.4 | 2.44 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 2.79 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
